This Week in NFL Betting By the Numbers
by Darin Zank - 10/13/2011
Football betting is a numbers game, from the standings to the stats to the point spreads to the totals to your bankroll. And in that spirit we've been keeping track of some of what we think are the more important numbers, as far as bettors should be concerned, in the early-going of this NFL season. Here are a few of those numbers, and some explanation of what they might mean.
5-2 – The ATS record of NFL double-digit underdogs so far this season. This suggests that more parity exits in this league than many might think. In fact, the only double-digit dog of last week won its game outright. The Seattle Seahawks, on the road at the New York Giants getting 10 points, shocked the G-Men, 36-25. This week we've got two double-digit dogs to consider; Intertops is listing St. Louis at +14.5 at Green Bay, and Jacksonville is +12.5 at Pittsburgh.
50 – The average number of points scored last weekend in the NFL. This helped the ‘over/unders’ go 9-4. On the season NFL games are averaging a healthy 46 points per game, and the ‘over/unders’ have gone 47-28. Linesmakers are starting to take notice, because for Week 6 Intertops is listing eight games with totals of 45 or more.
1/32 – The league rankings, respectively, of the New England Patriots' offense and defense. New England is averaging 495 yards per game on offense, but allowing 433 YPG on defense. For this Sunday Intertops is listing the Pats as seven-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, who are ranked sixth in offense and fourth in defense.
60 – The percentage of point spreads covered by teams that outrush their opponents this season. The top five rushing teams in the league so far – Philly, Oakland, Minnesota, Buffalo and Houston – have a combined 14-10-1 ATS record. The bottom five rushing teams – the Giants, Seattle, Indianapolis, the Jets and Tennessee – are a combined 11-14 ATS this season.
5-0 – Buffalo's record on the ‘over/unders’ this season. With the Bills averaging 33 PPG on offense and giving up 24 PPG on defense, they've played ‘over’ the numbers in each of their first five games. For this Sunday Intertops is listing the ‘O/U’ on the Bills-Giants game at 50.
1-4 – Jacksonville's ‘over/under’ record. With the Jags averaging just 12 PPG on offense and allowing 23 PPG on defense, they've seen four of their first five games play ‘under’ the totals. For this week Intertops is listing the ‘O/U’ on the Jacksonville-Pittsburgh game at 40, the lowest total on the Week 6 board.
16-13 – The ATS record of NFL home underdogs this season. Home dogs went 2-3 last week, but they have had winning ATS records three of the first five weeks of this season. For Week 6 Intertops is listing two teams has home underdogs; the Redskins are getting one point from the visiting Eagles, and the Buccaneers are getting 4.5 points from the visiting Saints.
38 – The number of points 3-2 Tampa Bay has been outscored by this season.
16 – The number of points 1-4 Carolina has been outscored by this season. Intertops is listing the Panthers as four-point underdogs on NFL odds for their game Sunday at Atlanta.
3 – Number of weeks in a row I've hit a six-team, six-point NFL teaser. This has helped keep me elbow-deep in cold beer.
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