This Week in NFL Betting By the Numbers
by Darin Zank - 11/10/2011
Every NFL team has played at least eight games now, so it's all downhill from here as far as the regular season is concerned. The task for bettors now is to take what we've learned from the first half of the season and use it to make some money in the second half. Here are a few NFL numbers we've teased out that might help in that pursuit.
10 – Number of home teams that lost outright in Week 9. Just three home teams covered the point spreads last weekend. So much for home cookin'. On the season NFL home teams are now 75-53 SU and 62-61 ATS.
17-36 – The record of the ‘over/unders’ the last four weeks. NFL totals went 4-10 in Week 9, the fourth week in a row the ‘unders’ outnumbered the ‘overs’. Through the first five weeks of this NFL season the ‘over/unders’ had gone 47-28. They're now 64-64 on the season.
0-3 – The SU and ATS records of teams the week after winning outright as an underdog on a Monday night. In Week 1 the Oakland Raiders won at Denver on a Monday night, then lost at Buffalo the following Sunday. In Week 7 the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Baltimore Ravens on a Monday night, then followed that up with a loss at Houston. And in Week 8 the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Diego Chargers as a Monday night underdog, then suffered a dismal loss to Miami. For this Sunday Legends Sportsbook is listing the Chicago Bears, who upset the Philadelphia Eagles Monday night, as three-point home favorites over the Detroit Lions.
27 – Points per game in the four games the Houston Texans played with WR Andre Johnson earlier this season, before he pulled a hamstring.
26 – Points per game in the five games Houston has played without Johnson. The Texans WR is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Tampa.
19 – PPG allowed by Houston in the five games it played with LB Mario Williams, before he went down and out for the season with a torn pectoral.
15.5 – PPG allowed by the Texans in the four games they've played without Williams. Houston is 6-3, the first time they've ever been three games above .500, and leads the AFC South by a game and a half over second-place Tennessee. For Sunday Legends is listing the Texans as 3.5-point road favorites at Tampa.
129.1 – The passing rating of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. New Orleans' Drew Brees ranks second at a distant 100.6. At this rate Rodgers will break Peyton Manning's single-season record of 121.1, set back in 2004. This week Rodgers and the Packers go up against Minnesota and its 28th-ranked pass defense on “Monday Night Football”. Legends is listing the Pack as 13-point home favorites.
12-3-1 – Combined ATS record of the Harbaugh brothers this season. Coach John and his Baltimore Ravens just won at Pittsburgh to complete a season sweep of the Steelers, and Coach Jim and his San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC West by a whopping five games, and sit just a game back of Green Bay in the battle for the best record in the NFC. For this week Legends is listing the Ravens as seven-point road favorites at Seattle, and the Niners as 3.5-point home chalk over the Giants.
42 – Combined penalties and turnovers committed by the San Diego Chargers over their last three games, all losses. The Bolts usually start slowly then finish fast, but they seem to doing the reverse this season. Legends is listing San Diego as a seven-point home favorite for its game tonight vs. Oakland.
4 – Number of weeks it's been since I hit one of my six-team, six-point teaser bets. Last week the Buccaneers cost me one wager because they had to settle for three field goals, scoring just 16 points vs. the Saints, which kept that game from going ‘over’ 45. Then the Giants and Patriots somehow played a scoreless first half, which kept that game from going ‘over’ 45.5, costing me a second bet. For this Sunday I'm taking a teaser consisting of the Cowboys at +.5 at home vs. Buffalo, the Bucs at +9.5 at home vs. Houston, the Saints at +6 at Atlanta, the Ravens at -1 at Seattle, the Lions at +9 at Chicago and the Patriots at +7.5 at the Jets. I just won't be bettin' the farm on it.
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