NFL Betting Predictions: Week 2 Quarterback Props Odds and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 9/15/2011
Let’s not kid ourselves: Quarterback is the most important position in sports and if you don’t have a good one, you aren’t winning a Super Bowl. Honestly, name the last team that won it all with an average quarterback. You have to go back to the Bucs with Brad Johnson when they beat the Raiders in SB XXXVII (yes, I’m giving the Giants’ Eli Manning the benefit of the doubt). With that said, let’s take a look at some quarterback Week 2 props offered by Bodog along with some NFL predictions for betting.
First off, the NFL clearly has become a passing league. Need proof? Last week saw a record number of QBs throwing for at least 300 yards. Led by Tom Brady’s 517 yards against the Dolphins on Monday night (fifth-most all-time), 14 QBs threw for at least 300 and four reached at least 400. That includes Panthers rookie Cam Newton’s 422, the most ever in a player’s NFL debut. There were five games that featured two 300-yard passers and there were a record 7,842 net passing yards league-wide. That Patriots-Dolphins MNF game had two 400-yard passers and featured 906 net yards passing, an NFL record.
With that said, Bodog offers a prop on the ‘over/under’ of 300-yard passers in Week 2, with the total at 6. The ‘over’ is a -140 favorite and that seems like a lock. Newton won’t go crazy again, but at a minimum Brady, Philip Rivers (against Brady’s Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (vs. Carolina), Drew Brees (vs. Bears), Kyle Orton (vs. Bengals) and Matt Schaub (at Dolphins) seem like sure things. So that leaves you with only one other QB needing to go ‘over’.
The site also offers a prop on whether a QB will throw for at least 500 yards the rest of the season. Including Brady’s game, it has only been done by 11 quarterbacks in history. So the “no” seems like a safe bet at -700. But why bet anything at -700? Take the “yes” at +400. I’m not so sure Brady won’t do it again (although it did take a semi-fluke 99-yard pass to reach 500). There’s also a prop on the ‘over/under’ total passing yards in Week 2 at 7,200. Take the ‘under’ there, however.
One of the big stories of Week 1 was how bad the Indianapolis Colts looked in Houston without Peyton Manning. You can also bet on whether Manning plays a game in the 2011 regular season or playoffs -- he’s reported out at least 2-3 months after another neck surgery. Bet the house on ‘no’ on this one even though it’s a big -400 favorite. There’s no way the Colts risk further injury to Manning, and I’m not so sure they don’t want to have a lousy year and get in position to take Manning’s successor in Stanford’s Andrew Luck.
Speaking of the Colts, you can also wager on how many more games Kerry Collins starts in Manning’s place during the regular season, with the ‘over/under’ at 2.5 (both at -115). I think the ‘over’ is a great bet there. It’s not like the Colts have a quarterback they want to groom on the roster – Curtis Painter? Please. And they are paying Collins some $7 million, so why not trot him out there? That seems like easy money and the only way it doesn’t happen is if Collins gets hurt.
Finally, you can bet on which team will sign former Jaguars starting QB David Garrard, who was surprisingly cut only five days before the Jags’ opener. According to Garrard’s agent, the QB isn’t in a rush to sign with some team just as a temporary fix and wants to win (what’s he supposed to say?). The agent also said that five teams were interested in Garrard. The Colts are the 3/2 favorites and obviously Garrard knows the division. But I don’t see that happening. Cincinnati is next at 5/2 but with Andy Dalton reportedly improving and likely to start this week after a Week 1 injury that lessens the need for Garrard. Plus, if Garrard is serious about winning, the Bengals won’t be his destination.
I think it’s going to come down to two teams: the Seahawks or Dolphins (both 5/1). Neither is particularly good, but Seattle at least is in a winnable division after taking the NFC West with a 7-9 record last year. And Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t very good in Week 1. I would have favored Miami before Chad Henne threw for 416 yards in Week 1 vs. the Patriots. That has certainly bought him some time.
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