Basic Strategy NFL Teasers: Best Betting Options for Week 17
by George Monroy - 12/26/2013
The final week of the NFL season will be spent by teams jockeying for playoff position while a handful of others try to play the role of spoiler for those squads trying to make the postseason. The big matchups of the weekend will be the Green Bay Packers facing the Chicago Bears for the NFC North Division title and the Philadelphia Eagles play the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East title. And while those matchups may have the collective attention of the football world, there are still three basic strategy teaser games left in the regular season.
A basic strategy teaser is a two-team six-point teaser that only uses favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 points and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points to moved spreads past the strongest NFL key numbers of three and seven. Let’s take a closer look at the three teasers available this week and figure out which have the most value to bet on.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Original spread: Patriots -8.5
Six-point teaser: Patriots -2.5
The New England Patriots have their division locked up and are only playing for playoff positioning on Sunday. The Patriots need to win their final game of the year if the team plans on stealing the No. 1 seed with a Broncos loss. New England holds the tie-break over Denver and will be playing at the same time as the Broncos on Sunday. New England does not need to win this game in a blowout and will probably rest its starters late in the second half if the game heads into blowout territory. The Patriots might not cover the original spread but should be able to win this matchup by more than 2.5 points.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Original spread: Lions +2.5
Six-point teaser: Lions +8.5
Neither team has much to play for other than pride, and the Lions will be chasing a .500 record. Detroit is probably still a favorite to cover the 8.5 points in this game, but the team also has no real reason to play its starters late in the game and risk injury for next season. Minnesota does not have much incentive to win this game either and may spend most of the second half letting its bench players get some reps in garbage time. This game is probably going to turn into a matchup of second- and third-string players, so taking the Lions plus the points feels like the smart play to make.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Original spread: Titans -7.5
Six-point teaser: Titans -1.5
Again, this is another matchup with neither team having anything to play for. The Texans, though, have won only two games all season and will probably be looking to lose this game in order to secure the worst record in the league and the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Houston may not play its starters for very long, and Tennessee might be able to cover the spread straight out. The Titans are playing at home and will have the incentive of at least winning the final game of the season for its fans. Expect Tennessee to cover the 1.5-point spread with ease.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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