NFL Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Options for Week 9
by George Monroy - 10/30/2013
Week 9 of NFL action has four basic strategy teasers to offer sports bettors this Sunday. Two of the matchups involve home favorites being moved down to a lower number, while the other two involve home underdogs being moved past the seven-point mark. In general, basic strategy teasers have performed very well this season and are winning at a 77 percent rate. The bet, for those that are unfamiliar, are simple two-team six-point teasers that utilize the most common NFL key numbers of three and seven to move spreads past those marks. For example, only spreads of 7.5 to 8.5 points and 1.5 and 2.5 points are considered for the wager and are lowered for favorites and moved higher for underdogs. This week there are a few excellent teaser opportunities, and in general a basic strategy teaser is a positive expected value play that should be profitable over the long run. Let’s jump right in and take a look at the teaser options for Week 9 of NFL football.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Original spread: Patriots -7.5
Six-point teaser: Patriots -1.5
The two-win Pittsburgh Steelers have been horrendous this season and are coming off of a loss to the equally-as-atrocious Oakland Raiders. The team’s defense has shown some improvement since beating the New York Jets in Week 6 and is holding their opponents to the second-lowest passing yards in the entire NFL. The Patriots also have a very good pass defense and are ranked fifth in the passing yards allowed, so this matchup might be a low-scoring type of affair. However, there is simply no reason to trust the Steelers to pull off an upset in this situation. The original spread might be too much for New England to cover, but they are showing excellent value being teased down to 1.5 points.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Original spread: Panthers -7.5
Six-point teaser: Panthers -1.5
The Atlanta Falcons may be the most disappointing team in the league this season. Not even a year removed from playing in the NFC title game, the team has only two wins and still has not won on the road. Atlanta is allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game and has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. The Panthers, on the other hand, are a solid team that has won three games in a row and four out of their last five. The team won their last three games by an average of 19 points per game and is moving the ball well on the ground. The Panthers are receiving excellent teaser value at -1.5 points and should be able to cover the spread.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Original spread: Browns +2.5
Six-point teaser: Browns +8.5
Neither of these teams is very good this season and both have only three wins on the year. The Ravens are 1-3 on the road and have lost three of their last four games. The Browns are on a three-game losing streak where they lost by an average 13 points per game. When wagering on two bad teams, the two biggest factors when handicapping the game are who is at home and who is getting the points? In this situation the Browns are showing value simply because they will have the home-field advantage plus over eight points as well. This is one of those matchups where it wouldn’t be shocking to see either team get blown out, but all the value is on taking Cleveland plus the points.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Original spread: Texans +2.5
Six-point teaser: Texans +8.5
Again, there is always value on taking a home underdog plus points, especially when it is over a touchdown’s worth. However, this is one of those games where the Texans will have a difficult time scoring points and keeping the matchup close. Houston is on a five-game losing streak where they have lost by an average of 16 points per game. The team is coming off of a one-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs during Week 7 and had a bye to help turn things around. But with all that said, it is not hard to image the team not getting blown out in this one. There is value wagering on the Texans in this spot, however, skipping this teaser seems like the best play.
Last week: 2-1; Season: 35-10
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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