NFL Odds Released for Every Game of 2013-14 Season
by Robert Ferringo - 5/14/2013
The NBA Playoffs are reaching a fever pitch. The Stanley Cup finals are raging. Major League Baseball is putting its feet up for what will be their annual summer dominance of the sports betting calendar.
But one of the biggest stories last week was the release of NFL spreads and odds by Cantor Gaming. The Las Vegas-based company unveiled 2013 NFL spreads for every game from Week 1 to Week 17.
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Cantor’s priorities were more motivated by gaining some publicity than they were on taking action. Books generally have a $100 or $500 maximum bet on these way-too-early lines. But they get a lot of exposure from maneuvers like this simply because of the public’s ravenous football gambling appetite.
That said, these odds could actually be useful for bettors. They create an expectation baseline that the actual season. And these numbers can give you an idea of how the books are adjusting ahead of the public.
Week 3 – Kansas City (+3) over Philadelphia
This is Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia, and this is going to be a hyper-emotional game. But Reid is going to be armed with the better roster at this point, and it is going to take the Eagles more than a couple weeks to get used to Chip Kelly’s system. The Eagles have been one of the most overhyped and overrated teams in football the last three years. You can see that is still the case here. I give the edge to Reid; he knows the strength and weakness of every key player on Philly and will have a great game plan set up against them.
Week 3 – Houston (+3.5) over Baltimore
Well, the Texans beat the Ravens by 30 at home last year, and Baltimore stands to be worse this time around. I understand the Ravens are dominant at home, and they have to be favored in this game. But it shouldn’t be by more than a single point. And regardless, the Texans are going to win anyway.
Week 4 – Pittsburgh (-1.5) over Minnesota
This game is in London. And when it comes to these overseas games, I am going to trust the more experienced coach, quarterback and roster. Minnesota played well above itself in 2012. But they are going to come back down to earth this season. And the Steelers defense is one of the few in the NFL that will have no problem banging heads with Adrian Petersen. This spread is going to move to at least 4.5 or even up to 6.0 by kickoff, and I think that this game is going to be all Steelers.
Week 5 – Dallas (-1.5) over Washington
So, the Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites over the Giants but only 1.5-point favorites over the Redskins? Are the books trying to tell me that the Redskins, a team that was 3-6 before playing one month of good football and has serious healthy questions surrounding its quarterback, are THAT good? I am not buying that. Dallas has serious revenge going into this one. The Cowboys lost what was essentially a Week 17 playoff game at Washington last December.
Week 7 – Denver (-3.5) over Indianapolis
The Broncos might win this game by 1,000. The Colts are going to be terrible this year, and the Broncos might be the best team in the AFC. This spread will be at least a touchdown when this game is actually played, and it comes at the end of a brutal three-game stretch in which the Colts face San Francisco, at San Diego on Monday night, and then this one. Oh, yeah, and there’s that whole Peyton-Manning-returning-to-Indianapolis thing. Wonder if that will be a big story or if Manning will be extra motivated? This is by far my favorite spread on the whole board. Bet as much as you can as early as you can.
Week 10 – Cincinnati (+3) over Baltimore
These are two teams going in opposite directions. The Bengals have no fear against the Ravens as is. And this year I think the matchup is going to be lopsided toward Cincinnati. Baltimore isn’t going to fall off the map because Ozzie Newsome is an amazing general manager. But the Ravens are going to regress. I think by this point in the season the Bengals will be a small favorite in this game, so I will gladly take these points.
Week 12 – Tampa Bay (+3.5) over Detroit
I could tell you to simply go down the list, find any game in which the Lions are favored, and bet on the other side. Tampa Bay has more talent, and I think their prospects are higher this year. Detroit is headed for another four- or five-win season and they shouldn’t be laying points to anyone. The buildup to this game will be about a Derelle Revis-Calvin Johnson matchup. But I think this one will come down to Tampa’s superior running game. The Bucs lost to the Lions at home in 2010 and 2011. I think that they will get some revenge here.
Week 13 – Atlanta (-3) at Buffalo
This game is in Toronto, and the sad-sack Bills hate playing there. These games piss off the fiercely, idiotically loyal Buffalo fans, and the Canadian fans simply don’t care. And everything about this game screams, “Falcons blowout!” Atlanta is going to need wins at this point of the season because they are going to be battling for that division all year long. The Bills will probably have moved onto their rookie quarterback by now and could be mailing it in on the year. Rookie coach, rookie quarterback, unfamiliar territory and a far superior opponent: that is all bad news for the Bills. They lost 50-17 in Toronto last year. It won’t be that bad, but I have a hard time seeing the Falcons not winning this game by double-digits.
Week 14 – Jacksonville (+4.5) over Houston
These two teams play two weeks prior in the Lone Star State, and the Jaguars are listed as 10-point underdogs. Their home-field advantage is having nearly a touchdown impact on the spread in this game. Why? Because the books know if the Texans do blast the Jags in Week 12 they will be overlooking them here. Especially considering that this likely revenge spot for the home dog will come at a terrible time for Houston: between games against the Patriots and Colts.
Week 16 – New England (Pk) at Baltimore
The Patriots have a monster revenge motivation from the AFC Championship Game. And by this point in the year the Ravens will essentially be mailing it in anyway (since I don’t see them going back to the playoffs). The Patriots won’t be resting their starters at this point; not in this game. This might be my second favorite line of the entire season because it is obvious who the better, more motivated team is going to be. This line will be -6.0 for the Patriots by kickoff.
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Read more articles by Robert Ferringo
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