NFL Totals Betting: Week 11 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/13/2013
After four straight weeks in which the “over” had the edge on the total line, points finally became a bit harder to come by in the NFL with eight of last week’s 14 games staying “under” the closing line. It was a week to forget for my top picks on the total line as all three ended up on the wrong side of the ledger. This performance put a major dent in my year-to-date winning percentage, but I am still well above .500 on the season at 17-12-1.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into the stats and betting trends for all the matchups on Sunday’s slate in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 11 in the NFL based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Nov. 17
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 40.5
The Jets remain one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL with an average of 18.8 points a game, but they did score 27 points against the Bills in a Week 3 win, and they have scored 26 points or more in three of their last five games. During this five-game stretch, New York’s defense has been tagged for an average of 28.6 points.
Buffalo has not been much better at punching the ball into the end zone this season with an average of just 19.9 points a game. One of the other reasons that the Bills come into this division clash with three straight losses and an overall record of 3-7 is a defense that is ranked 19th in the NFL in yards allowed (355.9) and 24th in points allowed (25.9).
The total line in divisional matchup opened at 41.5, and since then it has moved downward to 40.5 on some early action on the under. That is the right direction for me considering that the total has gone over in six of the Jets last seven games, and it also gone over in five of their last seven games against Buffalo.
Game Pick: OVER
Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 46.5
Baltimore is in serious danger of not even making it back to the playoffs following last season’s Super Bowl run. It is 4-5 on the year and ranked 29th in the NFL in yards while averaging 20.9 points a game. The only reason the Ravens have remained somewhat competitive this year is a defense that is ranked eighth in the league in points allowed (21.0).
The Bears will be without the services of quarterback Jay Cutler after he injured his ankle last week against Detroit. This comes on the heels of missing time due to a sore groin. Chicago’s normally prolific offense only managed to score 19 points in the loss to the Lions after averaging 28.8 points a game all season long. It will once again turn to Josh McCown as its starter. He has completed just 60 percent of his 70 attempts for 538 yards and four touchdowns in relief of Cutler this season.
The total line for this contest opened at 47, and it has slid a half point to 46.5. I already know that the Ravens cannot score, but I am counting on their defense to make life miserable for McCown to keep Chicago from doing the same. The total has stayed under in six of Baltimore’s last eight games overall and in four of their last five games following a straight up win.
Game Pick: UNDER
Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks (4:25 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 45
The Vikings are averaging a respectable 24.4 points a game this season. However, looking back at their last five games, the offense has been on a downward trend with just 21 points a game. The offense is currently ranked 25th in the NFL in passing and 28th in total yards per game. The lone bright spot on defense has been against the run, with this unit holding teams to 113.7 yards a game.
Much has been made about the play of second-year quarterback Russell Wilson, and rightfully so considering that Seattle has the best record in the NFC at 9-1. However, a good deal of this team’s success this season has to be attributed to a shut-down defense that is ranked third in the league in both yards allowed (289.0) and points allowed (15.9). It has not allowed more than 24 points in any of its last five games.
The total line first opened at 46.5 for this game, and it has been driven down to 45 over the course of the week. While I normally like to go against the betting public in line movements such as this, I happen to believe that this number is still too high for this matchup. The total has stayed under in five of Minnesota’s last seven road games against a team with a winning record at home, and it has stayed under in seven of its last 10 games against a team with a winning record overall.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 17-9-1
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