NFL Totals Betting: Week 14 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/4/2013
A play on the “under” in Week 13 of the NFL regular season proved to be profitable with 10 of the 16 games on the schedule staying under the closing total line. This cost me in two games I had going “over” the total for a final record of 1-2 in my top picks. Heading into this week’s game, my record for the year is now 22-16-1.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I dig deep into the stats and betting trends for all the matchups on Sunday’s slate in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 14 in the NFL based on lines by Sportsbook.ag.
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 40
The Raiders are 4-8 this season behind an offense that is averaging 19.8 points a game and ranked 22nd in the NFL in total yards per game (331.3). Matt McGloin has gotten the call at quarterback for an injured Terrelle Pryor, but neither player has been able to effectively move this offense. Last week against Dallas, McGloin threw for 255 yards, but none of his 18 completions found the end zone.
New York’s fall from the ranks of playoff contenders in the AFC has been swift and deep. After going 5-4 in their first nine games, the Jets have lost their last three outings by a combined 59 points while scoring a grand total of 20 points. They are now ranked 31st in the league in scoring with an average of 15.8 points a game.
Weather should not be a factor this Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but these two offenses will. Look for New York’s defense to shut Oakland down, and look for the Jets’ offense to shut itself down in a low-scoring grinder. The total has stayed under in seven of New York’s last 10 games.
Game Pick: UNDER
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 45
The Chiefs won their first nine games, but they bring a three-game losing streak and newfound sense of urgency into this week’s game. What has been so surprising about Kansas City’s fall has been the play of its defense. This unit has given up 103 points in those three losses, but that was against Denver twice and San Diego. Look for a return to form that still has this unit ranked fourth in points allowed (17.8) despite the last three weeks.
Washington has been headed in the wrong direction for the past month or so with four-game losing streak that has it riding out the string over the next four weeks. Robert Griffin III’s second year in the league has been a disaster and Mike Shanahan’s job as head coach could be in serious jeopardy. The Redskins’ offense has now slipped to 19th in the NFL in scoring with an average of 22.4 points a game.
The total for this inter-conference clash opened at 45, and it has remained there ever since. Chief’s coach Andy Reid has already had success shutting down the rest of his old NFC East buddies this season, and this game will not be any different. Look for a heavy dose of Jamaal Charles running the ball on Sunday, which will also help to keep the score down. The total has stayed under in seven of Kansas City’s last nine road games.
Game Pick: UNDER
Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
Miami remains in the thick of the AFC wild-card race at 6-6 behind a rock-solid defense that is ranked ninth in the league in points allowed (20.7). This unit has done a good job at shutting down the pass, which will be a plus against Ben Roethlisberger in this matchup. Offensively, the Dolphins have not scored more than 23 points in their last nine games.
The Steelers’ playoff hopes took a hit in last week’s 22-20 loss to Baltimore, and the loss also snapped a three-game winning streak. Pittsburgh’s offense showed some signs of life during that three-game run, but overall this unit is still ranked 22nd in the NFL in scoring with 21.9 points a game. The defense continues to do its job by holding teams to 22 points or less in six of its last eight games.
This game’s total opened at 41.5, and it has dipped slightly to 41 on topbet’s latest board. There could be a bit of snow or rain in the air on Sunday in Pittsburgh, but either way defense will be the big story in this matchup. The total has stayed under in 21 of Miami’s last 30 road games and in 16 of the Steelers’ last 21 games at home.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 22-16-1
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