NFL Totals Betting: Week 3 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/18/2013
The oddsmakers remain all over the total line this season in the NFL with 16 games going “over” and 16 games staying “under” in the first two weeks. I am off to a blazing start with a 5-1 record in my first six picks, including a clean sweep in last week’s games.
Each and every week during the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into all the matchups to uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 3 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Redskins (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 49.5
The Lions have started the season with win and a loss, but in both contests they have done a good job at moving the ball through the air and putting points on the board. Matthew Stafford has already thrown for 635 yards and four touchdowns. Detroit has scored a total of 55 points while giving up 49 points to its opponents.
Washington has been killed by two slow starts, but it has managed to keep both scores closer than they really were with junk points in the second half. The Redskins’ defense has been torched for over 1,000 yards of total offense and 71 points in its first two games. Robert Griffin III has really struggled so far, but he is still showing signs of returning to form with a much better performance in the second half of each game.
The total line for this matchup opened at 48 and immediately jumped up to 49.5 with some early money on the over. The total is still low enough for me as both these teams should be able to score on each other all day long. Past team trends back this up with the total going over in 13 of Detroit’s last 20 games and in five of the Redskins last seven games.
Game Pick: OVER
Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
The Browns have held pretty true to form with a 0-2 start both straight up and against the spread while scoring a grand total of 16 points. They are ranked 28th in the NFL in total offense, but a respectable sixth in defense. The good news is that this unit has allowed only a total of 37 points so far.
Minnesota is also in a 0-2 hole to start the year with back-to-back division losses to Detroit and Chicago. The Vikings have been able to put points on the board, but there are some rumblings that quarterback Christian Ponder could be on a short leash after starting the season with four interceptions verses just two touchdown throws. Adrian Peterson could have a tough day against a Cleveland defense that is ranked fourth in the league against the run.
The total in this game was set at 41, and it has held steady so far. I cannot see Cleveland putting up more than 20 points in this game, and its defense should do a much better job at shutting the Vikings down then the Lions or the Bears did over the past two weeks. The total has stayed under in five of the Browns last six road games and in nine of Minnesota’s last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Game Pick: UNDER
Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 48
If there was ever any doubt about Aaron Rodgers ability to take a game over on his own, just watch the tape of last week’s game against Washington in which he threw for 480 yards and four touchdowns on the way to a 38-20 win. He has already thrown for 813 yards and seven scores in his first two games, and the Packers have scored a total of 66 points while giving up 54.
Cincinnati has scored only a total of 41 points this season, but it is primed for a big day against the Packers’ secondary with Andy Dalton throwing the ball to AJ Green. In the Bengals’ season opener against Chicago, these two connected nine times for 162 yards and two touchdowns.
The opening total line for this contest was set at 46.5, and it has jumped to 48. However, it is still low enough for a solid play on the over. The Packers’ best defense is its offense as they will simply try and outscore Cincinnati as opposed to keeping it out of the end zone. The total has gone over in five of Green Bay’s last six games, and it goes over again this Sunday afternoon.
Game Pick: OVER
YTD Record: 5-1
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