NFL Totals Betting: Week 7 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/16/2013
Looking back at the total line results for Week 6 in the NFL, it was a good run for higher-than-expected scores, with nine of the 15 games going “over” the closing line. I got back to my winning ways after going 0-3 the week before with a 2-1 record for my top three picks for last Sunday’s games. This raised my year-to-date winning percentage to just over 60 percent.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into the numbers for all the matchups in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on NFL totals betting. The following are my top three picks for Week 7 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Oct. 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 43
Tampa Bay has yet to win a game this season at 0-5, but the one thing it does have going for itself is a defense that is ranked 10th in the NFL in points allowed by giving up an average of 20.2 points a game. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers’ offense has struggled to put points on the board with a scoring average of just 12.8 points a game.
The Falcons’ normally high-powered offense has had its share of problems this season in the team’s 1-4 start, but now injuries are starting to take their toll with the loss of wide receiver Julio Jones for the season after their other star receiver, Roddy White, has been hampered with a sore hamstring. This puts a major dent in an offense that is second in the league in passing yards but 26th in rushing.
The total line for this NFC South clash opened at 42, but some early money on the over has pushed the current line to 43. This presents a great opportunity to take advantage of that line movement in what I see as a low-scoring contest. The total has stayed “under” in seven of the last 10 meetings and it is staying under again this Sunday afternoon.
Game Pick: UNDER
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 50
The “Monsters of the Midway,” who made their living shutting down opponents over the years, have turned a new leaf this season behind new head coach Marc Trestman. Chicago’s offense is averaging 28.7 points a game, which is the third-highest total in the NFL. The Bears’ vaunted defense has gone in the opposite direction, and it is allowing 26.8 points to its opponents, which is ranked 26th.
Washington may have only one victory on the year to show for its efforts, but with Robert Griffin III at quarterback, it still has the weapons to put points on the board. The biggest issue behind the Redskins’ 1-4 start has been a defense that is allowing an average of 395 total yards and 28.6 points a game. It has been equally inept at stopping the pass and the run, which could be troublesome against Chicago’s balanced attack.
The opening total line for this game was set at 51, and it has dropped a point since then to 50. This is another line move to take advantage of in a matchup between two teams that should be able to go up and down the field against one another all day long. The total has gone over in seven of the Bears last eight games overall and in their last four games on the road.
Game Pick: OVER
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
The Ravens have been a mixed bag this season in a 3-3 start, but there are some serious issues on the offensive side of the ball with a running game that is averaging just 72.7 yards a game. The passing game has filled some of the void with 263 yards a game, but Joe Flacco has completed only 57.9 percent of his passes, and he has been picked off eight times verses just seven touchdown throws.
The Steelers got their first win of the season last week by grinding out a 19-6 victory over the New York Jets. This team has some major issues on offense as well after averaging just 17.6 points a game in its first five outings. Pittsburgh cannot run the ball either, but it could pose some matchup issues for Baltimore on the other side of the ball with a pass defense that is ranked fourth in the league in yards allowed.
The total for this classic AFC North rivalry opened at 40, but the line has been driven up to 41 since then, which is the right direction for me. This matchup has defensive struggle written all over it as both teams will have trouble finding the end zone at Heinz Field. The total has stayed under in five of Baltimore’s last six division games, and it has stayed under in 13 of the Steelers last 16 home games.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 11-7
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