NFL Totals Betting: Week 9 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/30/2013
For the third week in a row in the NFL, the “over” has had the advantage on the total line. With only 13 games on last week’s schedule, the total went over in eight of those contests. I was also dead on with my top three “over/under” picks in Week 8 with a perfect 3-0 record. This raised my mark to 7-2 in the last three weeks, and it took my winning percentage on the season up to 67 percent.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be digging deep into the numbers for all the matchups on Sunday’s slate in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 9 based on lines by 5Dimes.
Sunday, Nov. 3
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 44
The 2-5 Falcons’ entire season is in serious danger of slipping away with a loss this week, so the pressure will be dialed up on Matt Ryan to make the most of the receivers he does have healthy and on the field. This offense ground to a halt in last week’s loss to Arizona, but it should have some success against a familiar division foe. The biggest problem could be a defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL in both yards (363.7) and points (26.3) allowed.
Carolina knows it has a chance to bury Atlanta this week with a back-breaking loss and will relish the role against its NFC South rival. Cam Newton is playing with confidence, and he has this offense cruising with 30 or more points in each of its last three games. Overall, the Panthers are averaging 24.3 points a game, which is ranked 12th in the league.
The total line for this contest opened at 43 and it has climbed to 44 in the past day or so. That number is still not high enough to change my mind that both of these teams will find ways to put points on the board. The total has gone over in five of Atlanta’s last six games and in 12 of the Panthers’ last 16 games against the division. It has also gone over in three of the last four meetings in Carolina.
Game Pick: OVER
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 40
Kansas City remains the only undefeated team in the NFL behind an offense that takes care of the ball and can grind out yards on the ground to go along with a shut-down defense that is allowing an average of 12.2 points a game. The Chiefs have stayed true to this formula all season long, so I would not expect anything different in this Sunday’s game.
The Bills have turned to Thad Lewis as their starting quarterback for an injured EJ Manuel and to Fred Jackson as their primary running back for CJ Spiller, who remains “questionable” for this game with a bad ankle. Last week the offense managed only 17 points in a loss to New Orleans, so the prospect for success against the league’s best defense in points allowed does not look too good.
The total for this AFC clash first opened at 41.5 and quickly dropped to 40, which is where it is right now. While I normally like to go in the other direction of this kind of early line movement, I am still sold on the notion that these teams will not combine for more than 40 points. The total has stayed under in five of the Chiefs last seven road games and in eight of the last 11 meetings between these two teams.
Game Pick: UNDER
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
The defending champs have fallen below .500 on the year at 3-4 behind an offense that is ranked 20th in the NFL in total yards (328.7) and 21st in scoring (21.4). Its biggest problem has been moving the ball on the ground, but Joe Flacco’s numbers throwing the ball are nothing to brag about. The saving grace to keeping the Ravens competitive has been a defense that is 11th in the league in points allowed (21.1).
Cleveland showed some early signs of turning things around with three straight victories, but it has returned to form with losses in its last three games while scoring a combined 47 points. The main reason for this reversal has been Brandon Weeden’s inability to move this offense in relief of Brian Hoyer, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL. The Browns’ defense remains fairly solid across the board, and it is currently ranked seventh in the NFL in total yards allowed (320.4).
The total for this AFC North showdown was set at 40.5, and it climbed half a point to 41. This matchup has defensive struggle written all over it. The total has stayed under in five of the Ravens last six games. The total score stayed below 36 points in three of those contests, including a 14-6 victory over Cleveland in Week 2. The total has now stayed under in the last six meetings between these two bitter division rivals.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 16-8
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