Post-NFL Draft Player Props Odds and Betting Picks
by Alan Matthews - 4/29/2013
How unusual was the 2013 NFL Draft? There was one skill position player taken in the Top 15: West Virginia receiver Tavon Austin. His teammate Geno Smith was once thought to be a potential No. 1 overall pick. Instead, Smith went No. 39 to the Jets. The first quarterback to go was Florida State's E.J. Manuel, who wasn't a first-rounder on anyone's mock draft. The first overall pick was from a Mid-American Conference school, CMU's Eric Fisher. It was all good theater -- I much prefer a draft like that to one where most picks are pre-ordained.
The Jets' selection of Smith set a chain of events into motion that saw the team cut Tim Tebow on Monday with the possibility that Mark Sanchez also could be on his way out the door later this summer. New York gave up two picks to Denver and paid Tebow around $4.1 million. For all that, the Jets used the former Heisman winner on eight pass attempts and 32 rushes. What a colossal waste of time and resources.
Most believe that Tebow's days in the NFL are over and that he should go to Canada if he still wants to play quarterback. Maybe he can resurrect his career up north like Doug Flutie did. Bovada has released a few props on Tebow's future. One is whether he will play for the Montreal Alouettes next year, with “no” at -2500 and “yes” at +1000. If you are wondering why the Alouettes are the only CFL option listed, it's because they hold his rights. Montreal GM Jim Popp had this to say: "If (Tebow) wants to come to Canada, he will reach out to us. And if he wants to come to Canada, we would take a look at him."
Popp also made it clear that Tebow would be competing for a backup spot to Anthony Calvillo, one of the CFL's best all-time quarterbacks -- but one who also is 40. I can't see Tebow going to Canada to be a backup.
Will Tebow start a game in the 2013 regular season? The site doesn't say whether this includes the CFL and NFL, but I'm guessing not. Take a look around the NFL and tell me where Tebow could possibly start right now? I don't even see a team that would make him the No. 2. Take no at -900.
Which position will Tebow play in his first offensive play of the 2013 season? QB is the -200 favorite, and I could see some team sticking Tebow in on a short-yardage play. The other options are wide receiver/tight end (+150) and running back/fullback/H-back (+500). Take quarterback.
Meanwhile, will Manuel start in Week 1 for Buffalo? No is the -300 favorite with yes at +200. There's no chance of this happening. Manuel definitely has the skill set to be a good read/option quarterback like Robert Griffin III, but he is totally raw. In a perfect world the Bills won't use Manuel for a snap in 2013. Kevin Kolb will be the Week 1 starter.
How about total starts for Smith: “over/under” 4.5, with both at -115. I couldn't like the under more. Sanchez probably will be kept for this season only because his contract is guaranteed for $8.25 million, so it makes no sense to cut him. I'm also confident that Sanchez will beat out David Garrard for the No. 1 job, with Garrard likely No. 2. The Jets know that Rex Ryan almost certainly won't be back next season, so they should just keep Smith on the sideline and then start from scratch in 2014.
Southern Cal's Matt Barkley shockingly lasted until the fourth round, where he was picked by the Eagles. What a great spot for Barkley. He gets to work under Chip Kelly and is surrounded by some terrific skill position talent in LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Michael Vick certainly will be the starter to begin the year, but I could see Barkley getting a couple of late-season starts, because you know Vick will get hurt. Barkley is Kelly's guy, meaning the coach presumably would turn to him -- if ready -- over second-year player Nick Foles when Vick goes down. Take the over two starts on that prop.
Bovada also lists Austin's 2013 totals at 4.5 receiving touchdowns and 800 receiving yards (all -115). I'm a huge fan of Austin after watching him play a game at running back last season against Oklahoma and torch the Sooners for 344 yards on 21 carries, an absurd 16.4 ypc. Austin should immediately be the best receiver on the Rams and step right into the starting slot role in place of the departed Danny Amendola. He is the first wideout the Rams have taken in the first round since Torry Holt in 1999. Amendola had 85 catches for 689 yards and three TDs in his first season playing with Sam Bradford (2010). Austin is way more explosive and should be able to reach 900 yards and five scores to finish over those totals.
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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