Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Receiving Yards
by David Schwab - 7/3/2013
BetOnline has recently released a number of prop bet odds for the upcoming NFL regular season, so this week Top Props decided to focus on the odds for which NFL player will haul in the most receiving yards during the 2013 regular season. The usual suspects have made their way to the top of this list as favorites and contenders. And while there is some tremendous value to be found in all of their odds, we also have a long shot that is in excellent position as well to claim this year’s NFL receiving yards title.
The player at the top of the list is Detroit’s Calvin Johnson at +300. After failing to finish in the top five in receiving yards in 2010, he won this category the following season with 1,681 yards and then rewrote the record books in 2012 by tallying a total of 1,964 yards, which happened to be almost 400 yards more than the next highest player. Johnson broke Jerry Rice’s previous NFL single-season receiving yards record of 1,848, which was set all the way back in 1995.
The potential for another monster performance this season remains high considering that he still has Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball and he still plays on a Lions’ offense that was ranked second in the NFL in passing yards per game. With no significant additions to the receiving corps, Johnson will obviously once again be Stafford’s top target in the passing game.
The second-favorite at +650 to capture this season’s receiving yards title is Chicago’s Brandon Marshall. He was reunited with Bear’s quarterback Jay Cutler last season after the two spent time together in Denver and proceeded to rack-up 1,508 yards, which was the third-highest total in the league. This was his most productive output in his seven seasons in the NFL and his best effort since catching 102 balls for 1,325 yards as a Bronco in 2007.
What really adds value to these odds is the addition of Marc Trestman as Chicago’s new head coach. Given his past history with Montreal in the Canadian Football League, it is safe to say that the Bears will rely heavily on the pass to move the ball up and down the field. Other than some personnel moves at the tight end position, Cutler will be dealing with the same receiving corps as last year so you know he will looking for Marshall early and often each and every week.
A.J. Green will be entering his third season in the NFL with Cincinnati. He came into the league the same time as Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton and in two short years these two have established themselves as one of the top quarterback-wide receiver duos in the NFL. Green opened at +800 to win the receiving yards title this season after finishing 17th in 2011 with 1,057 yards and 10th last season with 1,350 yards. Another jump like that this season would land him in the top three.
The only possible drain in these odds is the addition of first-round draft pick Tyler Eifert, who played tight end for Notre Dame. More and more NFL offenses are turning to this position as a vital part of their passing game so he could detract a bit of attention away from Green. Nonetheless the value remains considering his 13.9 yard average per catch and 427 yards gained after the catch last year.
There are a couple of interesting players with longer odds in this category. With everything that is going on in New England it could open the door for Danny Amendola to put up some big numbers in 2013. Brought in from St. Louis to replace the departed Wes Welker, he is coming off a season where he caught 63 balls for 666 yards, which was ranked 65th overall. But those numbers were over the course of 11 games. He opened at +1200 to record the most receiving yards in the NFL this year.
With Aaron Hernandez dismissed from the team and Rob Gronkowski trying to work his way back from injury, Tom Brady’s newest target in the passing game is suddenly his primary target. No matter who lines up in the receiver spots for New England this season, head coach Bill Belichick is not going to shy away from throwing the ball as long as Brady is his starting quarterback. So the yards could start piling-up fast for Amendola.
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