Free Sunday NFL Totals Pick for Over and Under Betting
by CarbonSports - 10/31/2014
Pick #1: Denver/New England Under 56 (-110)
The Broncos and Patriots is arguably the biggest game on the board this week as NFL fans everywhere get another instalment of the historic Brady vs. Manning rivalry. Manning won the latest chapter in last year's AFC Championship game by a 26-16 score, as it was the first time in five meetings that Denver and New England stayed under the posted total. It was a great revenge win for the Broncos after they blew a 24-0 halftime lead in New England earlier that season, but I suspect this year's regular season tilt will resemble the playoff game more than that 34-31 regular season game.
For one, Denver's defense is much better with the additions of Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib. Ware and Von Miller have been making life difficult for opposing QB's all season thanks to a renewed confidence in their secondary and that will be no different here. Talib was with the Patriots last season and he did a great job covering big TE Julius Thomas in that playoff game and will likely be asked to do the same against Gronkowski here. Either way, this Pats offense that has been on five in recent weeks will have a much tougher task in front of them tonight.
Speaking of which, New England has cashed 'over' tickets in five straight weeks while the Broncos have done so in four straight contests. With QB's like Manning and Brady it's no surprise that these teams are putting up points, but all that scoring has given us an inflated number here.
Denver is 1-6 O/U the last seven times they've been road favorites after beating a division rival and New England has gone 2-5 O/U the last seven years during Week 9. Blowing that big lead last year was a stunning loss for the Broncos as their defense learned a tremendous amount from that game and will be out for redemption.
Don't get me wrong, these two QB's will put up points, but asking them to get 57 or more is just too much.
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Pick #2: Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 48.5 (-110)
Like last week's play on the Ravens/Bengals "over" which was a division rematch game, we've got the Ravens playing the Steelers this week for the 2 nd time this season. Baltimore dominated that Week 2 game from start to finish in the 26-6 victory and with 2nd place in the AFC North on the line here I expect this one to be much tighter.
However, Pittsburgh's offense has improved dramatically each week since then, capped off by last week's record performance against the Colts. The Steelers have scored 30 and 51 points during this current homestand and while I don't believe we will see them approach 50 again this week, I do like their chances of scoring 30+ for the 3rd straight week.
Both teams have shown that they no longer run the ball all day at one another and let their QB's sling it. Flacco and Roethlisberger have had some very good seasons so far, and after their Week 2 game stayed 'under' I'm flipping the script this week and taking the high side of the total.
The 'over' is 10-4-1 the last 15 times these two have played in Pittsburgh and the Steelers are 8-1 O/U after gaining more than 350 yards last time out. Baltimore's on a 6-1 O/U run on the road against an opponent with a winning home record and all of these trends should continue this week with a game that reaches the high 50's in points.
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