2014 NFL Odds: Taking a Closer Look at the Year's Double-Digit Spreads
by George Monroy - 5/20/2014
In the NFL double-digit spreads can provide some of the best betting value in the sport. Many times teams will be so unevenly-matched that even a 14-point spread could have value on the favorite side simply because lines are rarely larger than two touchdowns. Other times underdogs have all the value because a single touchdown can erase seven points off the scoreboard in a hurry.
Every 2014 NFL spread from Week 1 to Week 16 has already been released by Cantor Gaming, and the oddsmakers have put 13 double-digit spreads on the board. The largest line of the year will be a 14.5-point matchup between Seattle and Oakland during the second half of the season. Let's take a closer look at a few of 2014's double-digit spreads and figure out which side of the wager has the most value.
Week 1: Philadelphia (-11) versus Jacksonville
Jacksonville is slated to be a double-digit underdog a whopping six times in 2014, which is an improvement from last season when the team was a double-digit dog in seven games. The Jaguars lost 10 of 12 games by more than 10 points in 2013 and may be looking at the same type of year in 2014. The team didn't make a splash with its high pick in the draft and has not done much during free agency. Expect the Eagles, who averaged 27 points per game last year, to have a solid shot at covering the spread.
Prediction : Philadelphia covers
Week 3: New England (-13) versus Oakland
Surprisingly, Oakland, who was a double-digit underdog six times last season, is receiving more than 10 points only three times in 2014. New England is nothing if not efficient, but the team could not cover a spread nine points or larger in three tries last season. Oakland, on the other hand, covered four of its six spreads as a double-digit underdog last year and may be able to do the same in 2014. The Patriots are not looking to extend themselves during the regular season and will probably win a close game.
Prediction : Oakland covers
Week 4: San Diego (-10) versus Jacksonville
Jacksonville lost by an average of 13 points per game last season and produced a 1-5-1 ATS record has a home underdog. Both squads have essentially the same team as they had last year, so a huge, blowout victory by the Chargers is well within reason. Jacksonville also struggled through the early part of the season in 2013 before improving toward the latter part of the year. In fact, it took Jacksonville six week to cover its first spread of the season, which happened to be a 26.5-point line.
Prediction : San Diego covers
Week 5: Green Bay (-10) versus Minnesota
This matchup will rely largely on how much the Packers have improved over the offseason-both health and roster wise. Last season Green Bay did not have the potent offense that we are used to seeing from the team due to injury as well as losing a few key players during the previous offseason. Minnesota should show up ready to play its division rival, and at this point, a 10-point spread is really based off Green Bay's reputation rather than talent.
Prediction : Minnesota covers
Week 9: Seattle (-14.5) versus Oakland
Seattle's Week 9 game against Oakland is the biggest mismatch of the year in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In 2013 Seattle went 3-3 ATS against its six double-digit spreads and played close games against Houston, Tennessee, St. Louis and Tampa Bay-all under-.500 teams. Oakland, on the other hand, played well above its 4-12 record, at least ATS wise, in 2013 and covered seven spreads. The Seahawks are good enough to cover this line, but bettors may have to wait and see how the team is playing leading up to the matchup.
Prediction : Seattle covers.
Week 3: New Orleans (-10) versus Minnesota
Week 9: Cincinnati (-11) versus Jacksonville
Week 10 : Denver (-10) at Oakland
Week 10: Dallas (-10) at Jacksonville
Week 12: Indianapolis (-12) versus Jacksonville
Week 12: Seattle (-10.5) versus Arizona
Week 14: Denver (-11.5) versus Buffalo
Week 15: Baltimore (-10.5) versus Jacksonville
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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