When it comes to NFL season win totals , there are some bets that the sportsbooks are just daring you to make. They throw the numbers out there like a trap, knowing it will catch tons of unsuspecting, and most likely doomed, public money. Oddsmakers know how the public is going to think in some situations, and they lay numbers out there to prey on their biases. They are sucker bets, and as handicappers our job is to be able to identify them as avoid them.

Here are four NFL season win total sucker bets for this season (odds are from Sportsbook.ag):

Cleveland Browns ("over/under" 6.5): Needless to say, the over is getting a massive amount of attention here. The books probably could have set the number a half game or even a full game higher and still seen the dumb money go on the over. It's all about "Johnny Football" and the mania that follows his every move. The public is fascinated with Manziel, and that has translated to heavy support - and will continue to until there is a real football record to judge him by.

If he comes out early in the season and does something heroic then things could really get crazy. The fact of the matter is, though, that this team is hard to like at anywhere close to this number, and you can recognize that if you don't let yourself be swept up in the hype.

Their starting QB on opening day will either be a rookie who is a total wild card or a journeyman coming off a serious knee injury. Their wide receivers are in a mess, and there are real questions in several positions around the field. They have really lacked stability at the coaching position, and that continues with yet another staff change this year.

Mike Pettine was far from the first choice of the franchise, and he is new to head coaching, so it is naive to assume that the team will hang on his every word from the start. This team won only four games last year and didn't underachieve dramatically in doing so.

If you aren't a member of the Manziel blind-faith fan club (I like the guy a lot, but he's not a miracle worker) then it is tough to see where a three-win improvement comes from.

Denver Broncos (o/u 11.5): You could put any number less than 16 on the board and the public would jump on the over. That's the magic of Peyton Manning.

The Broncos have the biggest number on the board, and I have a hard time getting behind that. They were humiliated in the Super Bowl, and that has really created issues with some teams the following season. Their QB is great, but he is old and fragile, and the backup situation is a joke. There is plenty of talent around the field, but they aren't the youngest team out there.

The division is solid, and you can make an argument that at least two of the three other teams have improved. I'm not saying that there is absolutely no way that the Broncos can win 12 or more games. They absolutely can. I'm just saying that when you consider all the factors involved it just doesn't make sense to bet that they will.

Houston Texans (o/u 7.5): The narrative is straightforward here - they were a huge disappointment last year as they massively underachieved, but they have Jadeveon Clowney this year and they will be back closer to the team we have expected. Great story, but hard to buy at this point.

They are going through their first coaching change since 2006, and there will inevitably be growing pains. The quarterback situation is a total mystery at this point, and barring a miracle it is hard to be even a little optimistic. Andre Johnson is unhappy and currently holding out. Clowney has a chance to be great, but he joins a position group that was already a team strength, so his impact won't be as dramatic as it could be elsewhere.

I am bullish on the Texans over the long term, but at this point there just isn't enough out there to convince us that the team with the worst record in the league last year is poised to suddenly be .500 or better this year.

Seattle Seahawks (o/u 11): I have lots of respect for this team and the organization. Still, it's just not a good idea to bet that a defending Super Bowl winner will win more than 11 games the following year. In the last 15 years just four teams have won 12 or more games the year after their Super Bowl win. Seven of those 15 haven't even made the playoffs.

Seattle was no fluke last year, but Wilson and Sherman have entered a whole new level of stardom, and that pressure could wear on them and on the dynamics of the team. It also doesn't help that they are playing in a much tougher division than most defending champs have to - San Francisco will again be strong, and Arizona and St. Louis have both had good offseasons.

Seattle could easily win more than 11 games, but it is a terrible idea to bet that they will - especially because you have to pay -130 for the privilege of doing so.

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