NFL Totals Betting: Week 12 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/19/2014
Anyone riding the "under" in last week's NFL games cleaned up as that play paid off in 10 of the 14 games. I was finally able to carve out a 2-1 winning record with my top three picks on the total line for Doc's Sports to snap my mini-slide. Overall, my year-to-date record for these free picks stands at 15-17-1.
This Sunday in the NFL offers a full complement of 13 games to help build the bankroll for a late-season run, but I have zeroed in on three picks on the total line that look like sure-fire winners to me. All my free "over/under" picks are based on betting odds as provided by BetOnline.
Sunday, Nov. 23
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 48.5
The Packers clearly established themselves as the team to beat in the NFC this season after crushing Philadelphia last Sunday 53-20 in one of the few games that did go over the closing 55.4-point line. Aaron Rodgers is playing at MVP form, and while Green Bay has not been nearly as dominant on the road this season, it's hard to see this offense scoring all that much less than its season average of 33 points this Sunday, which is currently ranked first in the NFL.
Minnesota's push to a spot in the postseason went in the opposite direction in last Sunday's 21-13 loss to Chicago on the road, but the 4-6 Vikings have played their best football this season in the friendly confines of TCF Bank Stadium. They are averaging only 18.1 points a game, but earlier in the season this offense posted 41 points against Atlanta and more recently 29 points against Washington at home.
The total line for this NFC North tilt opened at 48.5 , and it has held steady on BetOnline's current board. There is no doubt that Rodgers is white-hot right now, and playing in the cold at TCF Bank Stadium should make him feel right at home this Sunday. The total has gone over in the Packers last six games as road favorites, and it has gone over in their last three games against Minnesota, including a 42-10 win in Week 5.
Game Pick: OVER
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texas (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 43.5
The Bengals may have saved their season with last week's stunning 27-10 road victory over New Orleans, but they could face an even tougher test on the road this Sunday against a much better defense. Cincinnati has been plagued with consistency issues on offense all season long, and the net result has been an average of 22.4 points a game. Fortunately, its defense has picked up the pace by holding teams to 20.3 points in its last four games.
Houston's 23-7 win against Cleveland last week moved it just one game in back of Indianapolis in the AFC South at 5-5. There have been some bumps along the way, but the Texans' defense continues to lead the way by holding teams to an average of 20.4 points a game despite being ranked 30th in the NFL in yards allowed. The return of rookie Jadeveon Clowney to the defensive lineup against the Browns was a welcomed development.
The total line for this contest first opened at 43.5, and as the week has worn on it has held steady at that number. Weather will not be a factor in Sunday's game, but the fact that both team's desperately need a win will. Look for the intensity on defense to be dialed up on both sides to keep the scoring at a minimum through all four quarters. The total has stayed under in eight of the Bengals last 10 games as road underdogs and in Houston's last three as a home favorite.
Game Pick: UNDER
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 49
Miami has been one of the bigger surprises this season at 6-4, and it appears to be getting better with each passing week. One of the main reasons for its 4-1 record over the past five games has been an offense that has consistently been able to put points on the board with an average of 25.8 during this run. The Dolphins have especially done a good job running the ball this season with 127.3 yards a game.
It is hard to know what led to the power failure on offense in the Broncos' stunning 22-7 loss to St. Louis last week, but playing at Mile High should go a long way towards recharging the batteries. There is suddenly plenty of seats available on Denver's bandwagon after going just 1-2 in its last three games after it was standing room only earlier in the season when this team was everyone's Super Bowl favorite. Something tells me that Peyton Manning returns to form this week at home to help refill some of those empty seats.
The total line for this AFC tilt opened at 49, and the early money has not moved it one way or the other. It appears that the weather in Denver for Sunday's game will not have a dramatic impact on this game, so it should be a fast track for both teams. I would be extremely surprised to see the Broncos score fewer than 30 points in the game, and Miami should be able to add at least 20 more to the cause. The total has gone over in five of Denver's last six home homes.
Game Pick: OVER
YTD Record: 15-17-1
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