Underdogs have been outpacing the favorites during the first six weeks of the season, but the wins and losses have come in an uneven fashion. Some weeks the underdogs have dominated the favorites, winning as many as nine games straight up, and other weeks the underdogs have struggled to produce more than four wins. Heading into Week 6 of the NFL season and beyond, figuring out which underdogs have value to cover a spread or win a game outright becomes a bit easier. The separation between the good and bad teams is slowly beginning to show itself. Let's take a closer look at the underdog lines and figure out which have the most value to wager on.
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San Diego Chargers +10 at Green Bay Packers : Green Bay is Green Bay, and there is not much more to say. We all know they employ perhaps the best quarterback in the league and are still undefeated against the spread. The Chargers, however, have value because the line is so huge. Ten points is a lot of points, particularly against a team that can also score. Phillip Rivers and his offense are ranked third in total yards and second in passing and put up 23 points a game, while Green Bay averages 27 points. Expect the Packers to win this game, but there is value on over a touchdown's worth of points. San Diego +10 is solid in this spot.
Monday Night Game: New York Giants +3 at Philadelphia Eagles : New York is coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory over San Francisco on Sunday night, where Eli Manning was up to his old fourth-quarter tricks from a few years ago. New York is currently 2-0 ATS as an underdog, while the Philadelphia is 1-3 as a favorite. Coach Chip Kelly and his squad seem to be deeply flawed, and things may only get worse for the 2-3 team. Yes, this is a division matchup that the Eagles need to win, but at this point bettors should not trust them. New York has great value to cover and pull off an upset.
Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Minnesota Vikings : Minnesota is going on its third straight year as an excellent ATS value bet. The squad has been outstanding as an underdog during that span, but it hasn't necessarily been a great bet as a favorite. Kansas City, on the other hand, is 1-4 ATS on the year and is struggling to gain any traction after starting off the year showing a bit of potential. Kansas City's value, however, lies with the fact that Minnesota struggles to score points and shouldn't be trusted as a favorite even when playing at home. The Chiefs have a solid shot at covering the spread and wining this game outright.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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