NFL Season Win Totals Picks: Best and Worst Value on the Betting Board

by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2017

NFL season win totals have been out for a short while now, so you might have had a chance to look at them already . As is always the case, there were some that jumped out as being really quite attractive and some that were just awful - and a whole bunch that weren't particularly interesting one way or another. Here's a look at the best and worst NFL season win totals on the board currently at BetOnline :

Best

Jacksonville over 6: The Jaguars still have to prove that they have a quarterback - and I'm not convinced that that will be easy for them. The team had a solid offseason, though. I liked their moves in free agency, and they drafted well. Leonard Fournette will make an immediate impact, and they added some good talent on both sides of the ball. Most importantly, though, they made a coaching change. I'm not as excited about Doug Marrone as I could have been about other guys, but the culture here badly needed a shift. I'm not suggesting by any means that this is a championship contender this year. They were far better than their three wins last year, though, and you could easily argue that they are better again this year. With just a bit of luck - which they admittedly haven't had as a franchise for years now - they could easily win seven or eight games. I really like the over.

Miami over 7.5: You'll notice a trend here - I think all of the teams in Florida are undervalued. This number in particular feels low. I liked the offseason the team had because they didn't panic. They really didn't do that much. They kept the players they needed to keep and added a couple of nice pieces, and they got rid of a couple of distractions like Branden Albert and Dion Jordan. At the very least they aren't any worse. This is a team that won 10 games last year, and now they are in the second year under Adam Gase, so they will have a better sense of what is expected of them and what their roles are. I'm not hugely intimidated by their division outside obviously of New England, so there are wins to be had.

Tampa Bay over 8: This is a pretty well-run organization - aside from an impatience with coaches, perhaps - and they had another solid offseason. I really like the addition of first-round pick O.J. Howard at tight end and DeSean Jackson at receiver. Mostly, though, I just like this play because I don't think the nine wins was a fluke last year, I like the core, I really like how Jameis Winston is developing and I think the team is moving in the right direction. They should be at least as good as last year, and that make the over attractive.

Tennessee over 8.5: The argument here is basically the same as for Tampa Bay. They are a fairly well-run organization that had a decent free agency period, a draft I liked, and they are built around a good young QB who is only going to get better. They are moving in the right direction, their nine wins didn't feel anything like a fluke last year, and they have a good shot at matching or exceeding that.

Worst

Dallas over 9.5: Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott aren't going to sneak up on anyone this year. Last year both of them - and especially Prescott - were playing with house money. And they did amazing work. Now, though, expectations are sky high, and the pressure is squarely on their shoulders. Prescott doesn't have the security blanket of Tony Romo to rely on, and every opponent will be more prepared for him and will be targeting him aggressively. He may be just fine, but I'm definitely not willing to bet heavily on it, and I can't bet the over here - or even consider it - based on that.

Houston over 8.5: Stop me if you have heard this story before - this is a team with a lot of things going for them but with serious uncertainty at quarterback. It's crazy that this is still the storyline. Deshaun Watson has a lot of upside, and he's easier to trust than anything else Bill O'Brien has had to work with, but he's still a rookie, and those don't all turn out like Prescott in their first year. Something like, say, Carson Wentz could seem more possible - some real high spots but even more inconsistency. On that basis alone I can't bet on them getting nine or more wins.

Giants over 8.5: This is a team that thought signing Geno Smith and Brandon Marshall were good ideas. They weren't. Eli Manning is 36, wasn't as sharp last year as he has been, and at some point is going to run into an injury after 12 years without a minor setback. If he goes down then the QB position is a disaster in my mind. I just don't love this team as it sits, and I am not inspired at all by them.

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