NFL Betting Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks

by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018

As expected, the first round of the NFL Draft this year was very quarterback-heavy. Four pivots went in the Top 10, and there were five picked in the first round. What made this year both unique and interesting was that there was far from a consensus as to which quarterback was the best. Lamar Jackson was universally fifth - though most people seemed to think he has real upside. But if you asked 10 different people to put the top four in order you would have gotten 10 different answers. Now that we know where the guys have landed, we can look at what the immediate betting impact for each guy could be. The short answer is that for the most part there won't be much early betting impact, but let's take a close look (odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year are from Bovada ):

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, +275: Mayfield has to beat out the other new QB in town, Tyrod Taylor, for this job, and Taylor has at least theoretically been guaranteed to be the starter out of the gate. I've seen a lot of people down on Mayfield because of the very long string of quarterbacks who have failed here. That's just lazy analysis. Yes, Deshone Kizer sucked last year, but let's be honest - what else was he going to do? He was a grossly overvalued QB put in a terrible situation, and he didn't overachieve, but he didn't really underachieve, either. He just wasn't up to the task. And others before that were just a mess. Robert Griffin III was washed up. Johnny Manziel was a mental case. And Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown were both okay in lousy circumstances.

They have made a lot of poor QB decisions in the past, but that doesn't mean that they have made one now. Mayfield is a winner, and he is freakishly accurate and very confident. But there is no incentive to rush him here - this team is improved but not playoff ready. Taylor will start, and he'll do fine, and Mayfield's time will come down the road. Or at least that is how it should happen. The earlier we see Mayfield, the less confident we should feel in this team in general as bettors. Mayfield is the second choice in the odds to win rookie of the year behind Saquon Barkley. I just don't see a scenario in which that happens - and I am high on the guy overall.

Sam Darnold, New York Jets, +2000: I don't expect Darnold to be a factor early on, either. Like Mayfield, he has a veteran ahead of him on the depth chart to start - Josh McCown in his case. I get why people like Darnold so much - the end of his 2016 season was incredible. Last year was less consistent, though, and he has some issues to deal with and some skills to sharpen up.

The team also has Teddy Bridgewater in camp, so they were planning for a slow transition. I expect Darnold to be starting by some point in the season, but not for a while. They aren't likely to be competitive for the playoffs this year, but starting Darnold probably doesn't maximize any chance they have. My guess is that we don't have to worry about Darnold as bettors until sometime around Thanksgiving.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, +800: Allen is a bit of an anomaly - simultaneously the quarterback least ready to start in the NFL because of his accuracy issues and the level of competition he has played against, yet most likely to start early because of the team he is on. The bloom really came off of A.J. McCarron in the last several months, so it's hard to see him as more than just a placeholder at best. Unless the Bills really feel like they are a playoff team again - which feels like a serious stretch - then the best way to get Allen ready is to throw him to the wolves. It won't be pretty early on, but it could be fun and profitable for skeptical bettors.

Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals, +1000: If everything goes according to plan then we shouldn't see much of Rosen at all this year. They paid Sam Bradford an eye-opening amount to come for a year - $20 million. They have an option for next year, too. You have to imagine that the hope is that Bradford will hold up and play well enough that Rosen can hold a clipboard, develop slowly, and be ready for primetime next year - maybe with a start or two late this year once the season is inevitably lost. What could change that, though, is that we are dealing with Bradford, so injury is always a legitimate concern.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, +2000: The Ravens picked Jackson because they could - the cost of trading up to grab him was reasonable, and he was a luxury. But they don't need him right away. Joe Flacco isn't likely to play out his ridiculously large contract, but the team is married to him for another year. Unless he totally and utterly collapses this year then he is going to get the bulk of the playing time. Jackson was an investment in the future, and as a bettor I am very interested in him - well down the road.

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NFL Betting Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks

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