Free Football Picks for Weekend by Handicapper Doug Upstone
For line moves this weekend, we are going all football, the NFL and bowl games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (168-136-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
Cure Bowl - (209) LIBERTY at (210) GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2:30 ET CBSSN
This is just Liberty's second year as an FBS program, and they are playing in their first-ever bowl contest. Georgia Southern joined big boy football six years ago, and they are already making their third postseason appearance. When breaking down the stats, Liberty's average total score this season was 62.7 points. Georgia Southern played a more difficult schedule, and their average total score was 58.8 points. That's why in theory the oddsmakers total of 55 seemed low, and those working the college football odds have beefed it up to 58 . However, when neutral field teams do battle and the total is between 49.5 and 58, in a game involving two average teams (plus/minus 50 YPG differentials), the "Under" is 42-8 combined.
Betting Trend - 52% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
Boca Raton Bowl - (211) SMU vs. (212) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3:30 ET ABC
This bowl battle is trending downward, from 73 to 70. Some of it might be because the Florida Atlantic offensive play-calling might not be as sharp with Lane Kiffin taking his act to Mississippi and his replacement not having the same feel for situations. Also, after SMU started 8-0-1 Over, their final two games were both below the oddsmakers number. Here is what I'm looking at. When the total is 70 or higher and two teams average less than 1.25 turnovers a game like the Mustangs and Florida Atlantic, the Under is a combined 52-14. 77.8 percent.
Betting Trend - 53% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
NFL - Saturday - (451) L.A. RAMS at (452) SAN FRANCISCO 8:15 ET NFLN
While the Rams and 49ers both blew golden opportunities last week and lost, hurting their playoff chances or seeding, they are focused on this week . Those making NFL picks are also looking ahead and have adjusted the total downward from 46.5 to 44.5. Both had Overs last week because defenses let them down. (Fate played a large part in San Fran's Over.) After being dominant most of the first half the season, except for the Green Bay game when they allowed eight points, San Francisco has given up 28.3 PPG in their other six most recent contests. This season the Rams have either been very good or like the traffic in the L.A. area, a disaster, like last week in Big D. Do those betting football have the right thought process on the total? It seems so, as team's like the 49ers off an upset loss as a favorite, against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, they are 33-11 Under in their next contest.
Betting Trend - 82% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
NFL - (469) CINCINNATI at (470) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
On the surface, this line move is baffling, with Cincinnati flipped from +2.5 to -1 at Miami. When I first saw this, I went immediately to Dolphins' sites and their Twitter account figuring Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured or they were going to give Josh Rosen one more look in the last two games. Nope, that was not the case. Truthfully, it's probably best to bet other games, but with the Bengals 0-7 SU on the road this season, cannot back them.
Betting Trend - 76% backing Miami
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Miami covers
NFL - (473) BALTIMORE at (474) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Last week, Cleveland couldn't knock off Arizona, who had lost six in a row, what chance do they have against the AFC's best team ? Evidently not much as the NFL odds have been jacked from +7 to +9.5. Coach Freddy Kitchens sure appears to be one and done, as Cleveland has not improved since they beat the Baltimore 40-25 back on the last Sunday of September, which happens to be their last loss. Coach John Harbaugh seldom says anything controversial, but with a chance to take out everyone's flavor of the month (Cleveland) before the season started, you know what he has his team thinking right now. This is a lot of digits to give on the road, but are the Browns worthy of consideration?
Betting Trend - 94% backing Baltimore
Doug's Doc's Take - Baltimore covers
NFL - (479) KANSAS CITY at (480) CHICAGO 8:20 ET NBC
For this Sunday night affair, Kansas City was shoved from -4 to -6 over Chicago. From a technical perspective, if New England were to lose to Buffalo, that opens up the door for the Chiefs to take the No. 2 seed and have a bye in a couple of weeks. Plus, with Chicago losing to Green Bay last week, they are playing for paychecks and little else. However, let's look the other way. Not saying the Chiefs don't win, but with the Bears 19-3 ATS against the AFC when they have a .500 or lower record as a home underdog and 10-0 ATS in the Windy City after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse, grabbing the points.
Betting Trend - 95% backing Kansas City
Doug's Doc's Take - Chicago covers
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 212-205-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 68-71-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 263-265-7 ATS
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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