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Free NBA and Football Picks for Weekend by Handicapper Doug Upstone


by Doug Upstone - 12/13/2019

Deshaun Watson Houston Texans

For line moves this weekend, we still have the NFL, but start making a transition to basketball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (164-132-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.

NBA - Friday - (537) MILWAUKEE at (538) MEMPHIS 8:05 ET FSWI, FSS

Despite riding a 16-game winning streak (8-8 ATS), those making NBA picks are not convinced Milwaukee could cover double digits at Memphis and lowered them from -11 to -9.5. That has some validity since the exact status of Giannis Antetokounmpo is unknown after he missed Wednesday's contest. However, the Bucks covered the spread that night against New Orleans (both the with and without Giannis). I have a system on Milwaukee that's rather long, relating to great defensive and rebounding teams versus average to below like the Grizzlies, that is 30-6 ATS. That works.

Betting Trend - 79% backing Milwaukee

Doug's Doc's Take - Milwaukee covers

NBA - Friday - (541) L.A. CLIPPERS at (542) MINNESOTA 8:35 ET ESPN

With Minnesota being torched for 127.4 PPG in losing six straight, basketball bettors pushed the total on NBA odds from 230.5 to 233 in their matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. The Timberwolves players should have red capes because their matador defense would have the crowd shouting "Ole". Scoring isn't a problem either since the T-Wolves are at over 115 PPG in this stretch. Though the Clippers can play in games like this that lead to "Over's", that's not their normal way of playing and they are 13-4 Under in road games having won three of their last four contests.

Betting Trend - 68% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under

CFB - (303) ARMY vs. (304) NAVY 3:00 ET CBS

It's going to take a bit more "onions" (Bill Raftery reference) to take a lower score in this year's Army-Navy battle. The opening total of 45 has been dragged down to 41 points, and it's easy to understand why. Army and Navy have played 13 consecutive Unders, and it's been six years since they crossed the 40-point threshold. The sportsbooks original college football odds appeared justified, as both team's total score average is 55 or more points. Let's go against the public here and say the streak is broken with Navy a 28-17 winner.

Betting Trend - 67% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Over

NFL - (313) HOUSTON at (314) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET CBS

The biggest totals move against the NFL odds involves this anticipated AFC South showdown. Houston and Tennessee are tied for first place and there are supposed to be more points scored than what the oddsmakers thought, with the total pushed from 47.5 to 51.5. We have two reasons as to why. The Titans offense is rolling with Ryan Tannehill under center, averaging 37.5 PPG in their past four contests. Though Houston's offense can be bumpy, QB Deshaun Watson and his teammates can score points in a hurry. Going to take contrarian position again since home teams with a total of 49.5 or higher, with a pass defense allowing 230 or more yards a game, after gaining eight or more passing yards per attempt in last contest, are 24-6 Under in next game.

Betting Trend - 82% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under

NFL - (315) SEATTLE at (316) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX

Seattle's five-game winning streak came to an end in La-La Land last Sunday night. The Seahawks might have been emotionally spent after each of those games were decided by eight or fewer points. Coming off a loss and knowing two victories sets up a rematch with San Francisco for the NFC West crown and possibly more, that should be all Seattle needs for a stronger effort. Those betting football agree and moved the visitors from -4.5 to -6.5 at Carolina. The Panthers, they are finished, having dropped five in a row, playing no defense and having an unsightly -12 turnover margin in this stretch. Book it.

Betting Trend - 96% backing Seattle

Doug's Doc's Take - Seattle covers

NFL - (323) JACKSONVILLE at (324) OAKLAND 4:05 ET CBS

The way these two defenses are playing during current losing streaks, they would make terrible school crossing guards because they cannot stop anything. Jacksonville has surrendered (and waved the white flag on the season) 34.8 PPG in losing five in a row. Oakland's on an 0-3 fall and has been shoved around for 38.6 PPG. Little wonder the total is up two points to 46.5. For NFL picks, set go along with the notion these defenses are easy to beat and take the Over.

Betting Trend - 84% backing L.A. Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Over

NFL - (325) CLEVELAND at (326) ARIZONA 4:05 ET CBS

Cleveland's played rugged schedule and it's been made harder by the fact they have helped pad the record of these opponents by losing. Baker Mayfield, despite an array of talent around, has Cleveland scoring only 21 PPG. The Browns defense has not played poorly and permitted under 20 PPG in their past five outings. Arizona's Kyler Murray has played like a rookie the last couple of weeks and might be hitting the proverbial wall. That is why I'll disagree with the total lifted from 47 to 49 and agree with the Cardinals at 7-0 Under in home games after two or more losses.

Betting Trend - 85% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under

NFL - (327) ATLANTA at (328) SAN FRANCISCO 4:25 ET FOX

My impression is bettors have raised the total from 45.5 to 48 thinking we are going to see the same San Francisco squad we have the last several weeks. I don't. With division matchups against the Rams and Seahawks, not expecting a fully-focus San Fran bunch against Atlanta. Truthfully, wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons make this a game and Atlanta is 8-1 Under after outgaining foe by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. Going the other way with the Under.

Betting Trend - 93% backing Over

Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under

Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 210-201-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 66-71-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 259-261-7 ATS

Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.

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