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NFL Betting Advice: Super Bowl Hangover a Myth?


by - 8/30/2019

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

When the New England Patriots and L.A. Rams start their regular season this year, people will inevitably think about the Super Bowl hangover. Of course, most people don't really know what the Super Bowl hangover is - or at least not in a way that is useful. Does it really exist? Does it impact the Super Bowl winners as much as the losers, or more? There's only one way to find out - let's look back at the last 10 years of Super Bowl winners and losers to see what they did straight up and ATS the next year. With luck, it will give us an idea of what we might expect this year:

2018

Philadelphia over New England. After their title, the champion Eagles went 9-7 straight up and 7-9 ATS while struggling through QB injuries again. They squeezed into the playoffs the next year but won a game and covered the spread in both contests. The Patriots went 11-5 straight up and 9-7 ATS, and then cruised through the playoffs at 3-0 ATS to win their title. No real hangover there.

2017

New England over Atlanta. The Patriots went 13-3 straight up the next year and were a league-best 11-5 ATS. They went 2-1 in the playoffs but just 1-2 ATS. Atlanta went 10-6 straight up and 7-9 ATS. They made the playoffs, going 1-1 both straight up and ATS. No hangover there either, really.

2016

Denver over Carolina. The Broncos went 9-7 straight up and ATS, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2010. They were dealing with a very significant QB change after the retirement of Peyton Manning, though, so it's tough to blame a hangover here. Carolina went 6-10 overall and 6-9-1 ATS. Cam Newton had a horrible year. We could blame the hangover here - score one for the impact of the hangover on the Super Bowl losers.

2015

New England over Seattle. The Patriots went 12-4 the next year but just 7-7-2 ATS. Still, hard to blame the hangover for rough ATS performance when they won 12 games. They went 1-1 straight up and ATS in the playoffs. The Seahawks went 10-6 straight up and 8-7-1 ATS. They made the playoffs, winning a game but going 0-2 ATS. No hangover here.

2014

Seattle over Denver. Seattle went 12-4 and 9-6-1 ATS. And we already know that they won two of three playoff games. They went 1-2 ATS. Denver went 12-4 straight up and 8-8 ATS. They made the playoffs but lost their first game and did not cover the spread. No hangover here.

2013

Baltimore over San Francisco. Joe Flacco became the highest-paid QB in the league after the Super Bowl win, but he was lousy the next year, and his team went 8-8 straight up and 7-9 ATS. You could blame a hangover there if you were so inclined. The Niners went 12-4 and 11-5 ATS.

2012

New York Giants over New England. The Giants went 9-7 and 7-8-1 ATS. They did not make the playoffs, so you could blame a mild hangover. The Patriots were again not hungover, though - they went 12-4, and finished 9-7 ATS. They went 1-1 straight up and ATS in the postseason.

2011

Green Bay over Pittsburgh. Green Bay certainly wasn't hung over, going 15-1 the next season and finishing a solid 11-5 ATS. They were upset in their first playoff game, though. Pittsburgh was only 7-9 ATS, but they had a very nice 12-4 record. They were also upset in their first playoff game. Hard to blame a Super Bowl hangover here, either.

2010

New Orleans over Indianapolis. New Orleans went 11-5 straight up and 7-9 ATS. They made the playoffs but didn't win a game. The Colts went 10-6 in the regular season and 8-7-1 ATS. They also failed to win or cover their first playoff game. The playoff execution was a fail for these teams the year after their Super Bowl run again, but they did not struggle in the regular season.

2009

Pittsburgh over Arizona. The Steelers went 9-7 straight up but an ugly 5-10-1 ATS. They missed the playoffs, so you could blame a hangover if you wanted. But they certainly didn't implode. Arizona went 10-6 and 9-7 ATS. They made the playoffs, winning a game and going 1-1 ATS. Kurt Warner had retired after the Super Bowl, though, so they have a very good excuse for the slight step back they took.

The Bottom Line: It's not exactly an overwhelming case for a Super Bowl hangover. There were two Super Bowl winners in the last decade that struggled the next year without a great excuse, and one loser. And there were a solid number of both winners and losers who lost their first playoff game the next year after a good regular season. But there isn't enough in the last 10 years to give us any real sense of what could happen to the Patriots or the Rams this year. It's not necessarily that there is no hangover, but whatever there may be is very overblown by the media - just like most things.

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