NFL Betting Odds: Week 13 Line Movements and Last-Minute News
Another Thanksgiving has come and gone, and for the first time since I can remember the NFL, schedule did not disappoint. We had three games that were very close and competitive despite some sloppy play from all six teams involved. We believe the better team (on the day) won each game and the spreads were covered by the right teams. Now we head into the weekend slate, and there are a handful of games that I'm excited to watch, starting in Baltimore, where the Ravens play host to the 49ers in what could be a potential Super Bowl preview. The Sunday night game between New England and Houston figures to be a good one as well as the Monday night game between Minnesota and Seattle .
As always, here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 13.
Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (+10, 45) : If ever there was a must-win game for this Philadelphia Eagles organization (not including the Super Bowl), this would be the game. With Dallas' loss on Thursday to the Bills, the Eagles are just half a game back of Dallas for top spot in the division. The Eagles have had a brutal time being consistent this season, but they've been dealing with plenty of injuries to both sides of the ball, but it's said that most of those guys will be returning to face the Dolphins. This spread opened up with the Eagles laying 7.5 points on the road, but it's been bet up to 10 points, and we see that move being justified. The Dolphins are a team I have backed to cover the spread for the majority of their games, but they showed little resistance last week at Cleveland, which tells me this team's run out of gas. The Eagles will be charged up, and Carson Went should bounce back nicely against a Dolphins defense that has given up 78 points over their last two games. This total opened up 46.5 and has dipped a bit to the 45-point mark.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 47.5): There has been some serious line movement in this game between the Bucs and Jags as the spread opened up with the Jaguars laying almost five points on their home turf. Since then, the majority of the money has come in on the Bucs, which has now forced the oddsmakers to tab them as 1.5-point road favorites. I've been aboard the Jameis-coaster for the entire season, and there is no reason to get off now. The Bucs' offense is among the best in the league (when Winston isn't turning the ball over), and I just don't see how Jacksonville will be able to keep up offensively. Nick Foles has been brutal since returning from injury. And is Leonard Fournette even playing? There aren't too many injury concerns for either team. However, despite that, the total has dropped two points from 49.5 to 47.5. Tampa has the ability to cover the total on their own, so not sure the drop is justified.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3, 38.5): This is yet another game that has seen some serious line movement since the opening number was released earlier this week. The Broncos opened up as 1.5-point home favorites before the public and sharps snapped up the Chargers getting points. Now, the Chargers are sitting as three-point road chalk, and I'm not going to lie to you, I don't believe that is warranted. We saw Denver play about as bad as you can play last week vs. the Bills, but one has to think they get better and will move the ball on a Chargers defense that is overrated. Keep in mind, while the Chargers offense may seem like it's stacked with talent (it is), something is missing, and they just don't have the chemistry needed right now to play well for 60 minutes. Maybe Philip Rivers is in over his head and should retire at the end of the season, or maybe the play calling sucks. Either way, I'll be on the Broncos with this line movement. As for the total, Vegas expects a lower scoring game and opened this game up at 38. It's since moved to 38.5 and is still the lowest total on the board.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 51): And last but not least, the Oakland Raiders were served a big slice of humble pie last week as they went on the road to New York and were blown out by the Jets. If they think this week is going to be any easier, they are delusional. The Chiefs, specifically Andy Reid, doesn't lose after a bye week. You know the Chiefs are pissed off about how they went into their bye week off a loss to Tennessee, so I feel like this is a get-right game for the Chiefs at home in front of their home crowd. This spread opened up as Chiefs -8.5 but has since been bet up to Chiefs -10, and with good reason. The Raiders are playing their second straight road game on the opposite end of the country. And while they still have a shot a wild-card spot, the Chiefs are the far superior team and will likely have their full complement of weapons lining up on offense. As far as the total goes, it's been bet down from 54.5 to 51, and we can see why that has happened. When these two teams met earlier in the year, the Chiefs raced out to a 28-10 win. The Chiefs have the ability to hit 50 on their own, but it's unlikely they do so in a division game against a familiar opponent.
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