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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 10: Expert Pick'em Predictions No Point Spread


by Chris Vasile - 11/6/2019

Drew Brees New Orleans Saints

I don't know about you, but I'm finally looking forward to the slate of prime-time games the NFL is giving us this week. On Thursday you have the Chargers versus the Raiders in an AFC West showdown, while Sunday night gives us the 6-3 Vikings vs. the 5-3 Cowboys and perhaps the game of the year goes down on Monday night with the 7-2 Seattle Seahawks taking on the 8-0 San Francisco 49ers. Each of these games will go a long way in determining the fate of the teams involved and their playoff hopes, and that's all you can really ask for when watching a game from a neutral perspective.

It should come as no surprise to you that Confidence Pools have grown in popularity over the last number of years. The concept of just picking a team to win straight up is much more appealing to the average bettor who is still understanding how the point spread part of the equation works. There have been many instances where we wished we had taken a team straight up instead of on the spread, only to have them not cover by half a point. It's frustrating, but with a Confidence Pool, you won't ever have to worry about that. For the entire season, I'll be breaking down the game list and ranking each game from most confident to least confident.

Week 10 Confidence List (my selection listed first)

 

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons: This game is a mismatch of epic proportions . The Saints are a great team at 7-1, while the Falcons are piss-poor at 1-7. Drew Brees is back, and he didn't miss a beat two weeks ago against Arizona. Now the Saints are rested and at home after a bye, which is why they are the biggest favorite on the NFL odds board . Don't overthink this one. New Orleans wins this one going away.

 

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins: This game is a wait and see affair as we don't know the severity of Jacoby Brissett's knee injury. However, no bet against the Dolphins is a bad bet, and we do in fact like the way Brian Hoyer played against the Steelers in relief. The Colts are listed as 11-point favorites. And surely with the return of T.Y. Hilton to the fold, they can beat the lowly Dolphins by just one point at home.

 

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: The Ravens did what the entire NFL was hoping they would do, and that was beat the Patriots on Sunday night in front of their home fans. The Bengals did what Bengals fans have been waiting for forever, and that's bench Andy Dalton. Whether Dalton is under center or a rookie quarterback like Finley, the Ravens are simply the better team and will not have a letdown in this spot. They know how crucial home-field advantage will be when the postseason rolls around, and they have their sights set on catching the Patriots for top spot in the AFC.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: As if the season wasn't already over for the Browns, they went into Denver to face a rookie QB who hadn't taken a meaningful snap of football in four years and proceeded to give up 24 points and lose the game. The defense continues to take penalties, and the offense is completely out of sync. It's only time before OBJ does something or criticizes someone and becomes the villain. The Bills are competent, and we'll take Josh Allen and Sean McDermott over Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens and day of the week.

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: The Chiefs pulled off a great win last week against Minnesota, while Tennessee's luck finally ran out. The Chiefs may get Patrick Mahomes back this week. However, even with Matt Moore under center, they should be able to beat a Titans team that just isn't very good. The Chiefs have plenty of playmakers around Moore for him to target, and we like how Andy Reid has game planned to suit Moore's strengths. Chiefs win this one with or without Mahomes.

 

LA Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Rams are playing well, winners of two straight and are rested off of their bye week. The Steelers are somehow back at 4-4 and may or may not have James Conner back in the lineup. The Rams simply have too much firepower for Mason Rudolph to keep up with. Rams win this game with ease.

 

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers: Sometimes this handicapping football idea is as simple as which QB you'd rather put your money on. This week the choices are Aaron Rodgers or Kyle Allen. There is no way in hell Rodgers is going to turn in another stinker like he did last week against the Chargers. Rodgers is back at home. And with a fully healthy supporting staff, the Packers should get back to their winning ways over a Panthers team that is stuck with Kyle Allen under center for the rest of the season. One reason this game isn't as high on the list in terms of confidence is because Christian McCaffrey can win football games on his own, and another three-touchdown performance wouldn't shock me.

 

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins did what Kirk Cousins always does, and that is lose football games to teams above .500. Well the last time I checked; the Cowboys were above .500, meaning the Cowboys win this game. Everything else is a moot point.

 

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: The Lions are toast. The Bears are toast. So, in a battle of two dead teams , who do we side with? Well, for starters, the NFL is a QB-driven league, and the Lions have a good one in Matthew Stafford, while the Bears continue to trot out Mitch Trubisky. I'm not saying the Lions are the better team, I'm saying we trust Stafford and his playmakers more than we do the Bears. Lions beat the Bears here for their first win over Chicago since 2017.

 

LA Chargers at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders returned home after being on the road for what seemed like 10 years to hand the Lions their fourth loss in five games. The Raiders offense showed it can be productive, while the defense stepped up when called up late in the fourth. The Chargers shocked everyone by beating the surging Packers in LA, but now have to deal with a short week and a division opponent. The Chargers have won four straight games in this series, and we'll take them and their better defense in this spot .

 

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: This may be the game of the year as we have a game that features the 8-0 49ers vs the 7-2 Seahawks. This game will go a long way in deciding which teams walks away with the NFC West crown, and frankly your guess is as good as mine as to which team wins this game. The 49ers have the better defense, but you simply can't count out Wilson and the Seahawks offense at any point. Until Garappolo steps up and beats a good team (wins are against teams that are a combined 22-43), we can't give him the benefit of the doubt. Take Seattle.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals: I'm taking the Bucs in this spot because they have a good offense (when Jameis doesn't turn the ball over) and they good at stopping the run - something Arizona wants to establish on a consistent basis. You have to believe that Bruce Arians will have a game plan to contain Kyler Murray. And that if the Bucs offense can continue to score 20+ points (as they've done in seven of their eight games), it'll be too much for Arizona to overcome.

 

New York Giants vs New York Jets: Does anyone outside of the state of New York care about this game? I know I won't give it a second look, and you shouldn't either. The Giants are frisky and should be able to win the game over a Jets team that is banged up and has a quarterback that is playing scared. Oh, and Adam Gase is a terrible coach, which is another reason to pick the Giants.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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