Week 12 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone
It was very disappointing for NFL teasers as we didn't hit a single one for the first time this season and our record fell to 31-13. I'm the first one to sing my praises when I'm right and I'm going to be the first to also admit when things didn't go as planned. If a handicapper is not going to be truthful, people like yourself are going to see right through the smokescreen.
This week, I found the card much easier to come up with plays, and the plan is to get back on the winning track with a 4-0 sweep and negate last week. Am I promising this will happen? Of course not, but I can tell you it won't be from a lack of effort and work to try and build yours and mine's bankroll with these teasers.
I'm the latest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports, and it will take a while for many of you learn what I am about and my sports betting style. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds. This is a condensed version of the most pertinent information for your usage for NFL picks, which is after all four plays.
Below are my Week 12 selections.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Nov.24 - Steelers Taken From -6.5 to -0.5 over Bengals
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner likely not to play against Cincinnati, that places a lot of pressure on Mason Rudolph to carry the load for Pittsburgh. Nonetheless, that is baked into the NFL odds already by the sportsbooks for the Steelers against the winless Bengals . That means the Pittsburgh defense needs to step up, which they should be capable of doing against a Cincy offense averaging only 14.7 PPG. The teaser allows us extra protection, taking a number just to where the Steelers have to post a victory and below the key numbers of 6 and 3. With Pitt winning by 8.8 PPG the last 22 times they were off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, I like our chances.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Steelers -0.5
Carolina at New Orleans - Nov. 24 - Saints Taken From -9.5 to -3.5 over Panthers
After looking so sharp, Carolina quarterback Kyle Allen looks like he's run into the mental wall. The Panthers have lost three of four. And since the 51-13 spanking at San Francisco, the 49ers and others are bringing the pass rush and Allen's rushing his throw's more and looks less comfortable in the pocket. New Orleans is not a great sack squad, but they do bring the heat on the opposing quarterback, which is why they are only giving up 19.9 PPG. With the Saints winning by 13.4 PPG the past dozen times they came off a road game, going below the 7 and 6 matters against a slumping Panthers crew.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Saints -3.5
Dallas at New England - Nov. 24 - Patriots Taken From -6.5 to -0.5 over Cowboys
After watching Tom Brady at the press conference after his team knocked off Philadelphia, you would have thought he and New England lost by 20. Brady wasn't happy with the offense, but now they are back home. With the Patriots favored by less than a touchdown, for this teaser, the Brady Bunch just needs to post a 'W' against Dallas. The same premises applies to Pittsburgh as was discussed based on the point spread and we have an awesome situation that reads like this. The Patriots are 15-0 against a teaser line in home games after one or more "Under's".
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Patriots -0.5
Green Bay at San Francisco- Nov. 24 - Packers Taken From +3 to +9 over 49ers
This NFL encounter was flexed to draw a big audience on NBC. After dominating the first portion of the schedule, San Francisco lost to Seattle and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to defeat Arizona last Sunday. Jimmy G has not looked great at quarterback, and the 49ers run defense will give up yards. Green Bay comes to the left coast off a bye week and has a reliable running game and Aaron Rodgers. Aside from the no-show game against the L.A. Chargers, the Packers have come to play and lifting off the 3 and by those key numbers of 6 and 7, they should build on their 17-2 teaser record versus San Fran.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Packers +9
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
Doug Upstone is the latest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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$$ Doug's on a 75-57 NFL run and is 2016 Monitored Champion
$$ Doug has 21 No.1 monitored titles and 80 Top 10 finishes!
$$ Doug has 7-unit Winner coming in College Football (11/23) and 6-unit NFL Winner (11/24)!
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