College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Nov. 21-22
As we navigate our weekly Covid issues for the games on the board at online betting websites, we still can come up with line moves in football.
The week we will take a tour around three of the Power 5 conferences along with a trio of early NFL football games on Sunday.
Let’s take the deep dive to understand what caused the line movement and hand out some free picks.
CFB – (345) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (346) GEORGIA 7:30 ET SECN
Both teams missed a chance to play last week due to virus problems and are anxious to get back on the field, though who that might be in some cases remains unknown. What is known is Georgia is a growing home favorite, blossoming from -22.5 to -25. The Bulldogs' defense was supposed to be one of the best in the country, but they gave up 40+ points to Alabama and Florida. However, against inferior offenses, which Mississippi State is at 16.3 PPG, the Dawgs have allowed 10 PPG. With Stetson Bennett nursing a sore shoulder, Georgia is expected to make a quarterback change, and it's not like the Bulldogs are dynamic to begin with. Let’s lean with the home team, hoping the defense sets up a score or two for Georgia to cover.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Georgia
Doug’s Take – Georgia covers
CFB – (357) INDIANA at (358) OHIO STATE 12:00 ET FOX
In this battle of Big Ten unbeatens, the total has shot up four points to 66.5. That is quite a jump on the college football betting lines, and the reasons are probably two-fold. As good as the Indiana defense has played, holding back Ohio State’s potent offense appears unlikely without forcing turnovers. Coincidentally, the Buckeyes defense is far from locking opponents down, allowing 23 PPG against those they’ve played. Ohio State has averaged better than 45 PPG in their last four contests versus the Hoosiers, and they will most likely get close to that figure. Given Indiana scores better than 33 PPG, it’s not a stretch to say they will fall in the 23 to 27-point range, leading to a total that ends up an “Over”.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Over
CFB – (403) KANSAS STATE at (404) IOWA STATE 4:00 ET FOX
Iowa State is on track and trying to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Kansas State has lost their last two outings after a 4-0 conference start and has a big task ahead of them. Football bettors are not sold on the Wildcats and lifted them from +7.5 to +11. A large concern about K-State is QB Will Howard after a strong debut. Since then, the freshman is struggling, completing less than 50 percent of his pass attempts in his last five games when not facing Kansas. At several betting sites, the sharp money is on Kansas State. And while I have trepidation about K-State, they typically play well as underdogs. With the spread over 10 and the Wildcats 6-0 ATS after allowing three points or less in the first half of their last game, I’ll support them.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Kansas State
Doug’s Take – Kansas State covers
NFL – (455) DETROIT at (456) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
The total tumbling from 49 to 47 seems to imply that Matthew Stafford’s thumb might be an issue along with RB D'Andre Swift having a concussion and listed as doubtful. With that said, we still have two decent offensive clubs who have enough weapons to move the pigskin consistently. This should be especially true against these defenses. Detroit is conceding 29.7 PPG and Carolina is allowing 27.2 PPG. The Panthers are 7-0 Over after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored, and the Lions are 14-4 Over when both teams score 20 or more points, which seems a certainty. Grab the Over.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s Take – Play Over
NFL – (457) NEW ENGLAND at (458) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
In this AFC affair, we know New England will have success rushing the ball. The Patriots are third in rushing at 161.2 YPG, and their zone blocking scheme is working to perfection for RB Damien Harris and others. Houston has the NFL’s worst run defense at 167 YPG, which suggests they will be on the field a long time. If my thinking is correct, that means the clock is running and the game is shortened by New England and we’ll have a lower than anticipated scoring contest.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Under
Doug’s Take – Play Under
NFL – (465) TENNESSEE at (466) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET CBS
Each of these AFC squads is coming off of a disappointing showing and are anxious not to start a losing streak. Those working the NFL odds are less comfortable with Baltimore than Tennessee and lowered the Ravens from -7 to -5. Don’t be surprised to see Baltimore go back up to at least -6 with bettors down on Lamar Jackson. Realistically, they should take a closer look at the Titans, whose offense is scoring a ginormous seven points fewer a game in their past three outings (20.3 vs. 27.7), while still surrendering 26.1 PPG. Baltimore has to adjust as the league has to them. The Ravens need to play with more energy on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and I’ll say they do and beat the adjusted number.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Tennessee
Doug’s Take – Baltimore covers
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has -21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 87 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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