Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 11 NFL Betting Options
If you talk to enough people in the betting industry, you will often hear the phrase “I bet numbers, not teams”. This week’s edition of the Basic Strategy Teaser is taking that phrase literally. We have four games that fall within the BST parameters. And if you look at the teams that are available and the ones we are selecting, you will have to have a strong stomach to trust these teams with your money. However, like the saying says, we are betting numbers and not teams, and we feel that each one of these teaser options is a solid way to turn a profit this week.
As far as last week’s results go, we were on the wrong end of both games as the Cleveland Browns were trounced by the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers couldn’t find a way to beat the lowly Lions at home. I will give the Steelers a pass, though, as they were without Ben Roethlisberger, who missed the game due to COVID. Let’s get back in the win column this week.
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Best Six-Point Teaser for Week 11.
Dallas +8.5 & Seattle +8,5 (-120)
Risk: $120 to win $100
Let’s take a second to explain these spreads to those of you who are new around here. The Dallas Cowboys are +2.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. By using a six-point teaser, you will push that spread up through the key numbers of three and seven and get them as an 8.5-point underdog. As for the Seahawks, they are +2.5-point underdogs against the Cardinals, and teasing them up using our six-point teaser method will take you through the key numbers of three, four and seven and they would then be a +8.5-point underdog.
As per your selection on the Cowboys +8.5, you have to like their response last week against the Falcons. The Cowboys went out and put up 43 points and held the Falcons to just three points defensively. That erased the aftertaste of a brutal 30-16 home loss the week prior to the Denver Broncos. The Cowboys come to Arrowhead in good form as they are relatively healthy, and they are getting production from everyone on offense. Dak Prescott is playing well in his return from injury, Ezekiel Elliott is slowly returning to the form he showed early in his career, and the receivers, Amari Copper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, are all putting up solid numbers. The Cowboys are one of the few teams in the league that can go toe-to-toe offensively with the Chiefs. And coming into this contest, the Cowboys’ offense is ranked ahead of their foes in most offensive categories.
However, the reason we believe the Cowboys are a solid play getting all these points is because of their defense. The Cowboys are not known for having a solid defense, but they enter this game in the top-10 in rushing yards allowed, points per game and third-down conversion percentage. I believe the Cowboys can slow down the Chiefs’ offense and come away with either a win or making this a one-score type game.
The second leg of this teaser isn’t pretty. It’s banking on the Seahawks responding in a big way from their 17-0 loss last week to the Green Bay Packers. I know the Seahawks season is all but over, but I think Russell Wilson will have a great bounce-back game and lead the Seahawks to being competitive in this one. Look, we don’t really know if Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins are going to suit up. If they do, the Cardinals will be dangerous, but I don’t see them being put in harm’s way or asked to do too much given that they have a bye next week. If the duo doesn’t play, then we have the better offense on paper getting over a touchdown on their home field. I will sign up for that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings +8.5 over Green Bay Packers: I must caution you. This is my least favorite selection on the board. I think Green Bay is going to blow these guys out. Minnesota very rarely wins close ball games, or big football games, and this is one of them. The Packers are better on both sides of the ball, and I just don’t see what Minnesota can do to hurt the Packers. The number fits the bill for how a BST works, but I do not like this option.
New Orleans Saints +8 over Philadelphia Eagles: The Saints have suffered through quite a bit over the last six months of so. First, Drew Brees retired. Then they brought back Jameis Winston, and now he’s out for the season with a knee injury. Then they relied on Taysom Hill as a starting quarterback, but that didn’t work. And now they are turning to Trevor Simien. That’s not going to work either. So why am I taking them here plus all these points? Well because Philadelphia is winless at home this year and isn’t built to blow teams out. I see a four-point game either way.
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