Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 6 NFL Betting Options
Normally when I write this Basic Strategy Teaser piece, the content pretty much writes itself. There are usually several games I have available to select from that fall within the BST parameters. This week, it was a little harder to find games that fit the system because this is usually when the sportsbooks start catching on and the numbers get start to get sharper as the weeks pass us by. This week, the biggest key is going to be to shop around for the best numbers. Certain books have teams listed a half-point to a full point lower or higher than others. For example, if you shop around, you can find Carolina at +1.5 over Minnesota, but only if you look hard enough. The difference between +1 and +1.5 in a teaser is huge as a teaser with a seven-point Minnesota win could be graded a loss instead of a push, or a win instead of a loss if you got +7.5. It’s imperative to shop around this week (and every other week) and find the right numbers to bet into.
As for last week’s result, we cashed another six-point teaser, which brings out record to 3-1 through five weeks of action. We had Buffalo teased up to +8.5, and we did not need any of those points as they won outright. The second leg was Denver +8.5, and we did need every point we could get as they managed to lose by just eight points, which helped us cash our ticket. This just goes to show you how imperative it is to play teasers in the right fashion and get through certain key numbers. Let’s continue our winning ways this week!
Doc’s Sports offers free NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Best Six-Point Teaser for Week 6.
Carolina +7.5 & Arizona +8.5 (-120)
Risk: $120 to win $100
Let’s take a second to explain these spreads to those of you who are new around here. The Carolina Panthers are 1.5-point underdogs (in certain spots) against the Minnesota Vikings. By using a six-point teaser, you will bring that spread up through the key numbers of three and seven and get them as 7.5-point underdogs. As for the Cardinals, they are 2.5-point underdogs against the Browns, and teasing them upwards will get you through the key numbers of three and seven and make them 8.5-point dogs.
In terms of the first leg of this teaser, I’m a big believer that the absence of Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers’ offense only makes the team worse. Obviously, CMC is a huge part of what the Panthers do on offense, and his absence limits the offense to a more one-dimensional approach and that is have Sam Darnold sling the ball all over the field. The problem with that is that the offensive line can’t afford Darnold enough time to scan the field and make the right read. Nor are the receivers any good for the Panthers. They do have DJ Moore, who can be solid from time to time, but Robby Anderson has been a colossal disappointment this year. So, you must be asking yourself why I’m choosing to include the Panthers in my teaser. Well, the answer is because I think they can beat their opponent only because their opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, continue to find ways to disappoint and underperform. At this point in the week, it’s unsure whether or not Dalvin Cook will suit up, but I do believe the Panthers’ defense will be able to limit the damage that the Vikings can do on the ground game. That leaves the ball in Kirk Cousins’ hands, and we’ve seen him turn in some stinkers before. I’m not saying the Panthers are going to blow out the Vikings, what I’m saying is that 8.5-points is an awful lot of points for the Panthers to be getting on their own field. I say this game is a three or four-point win for either team.
As for the second leg of the teaser, sometimes if it looks too good to be true, it usually is. That’s the case with the Cardinals in this one. They are a 5-0 team traveling across the country to take on a 3-2 Browns team that is playing some decent football right now. So why are the Cardinals listed as underdogs? Well, the travel for one, and because they are playing a desperate Browns team. For those reasons, I say not so fast. If you look at the travel, the Cardinals were at home last week vs the Niners. They do have to travel across the country to Cleveland, but Cleveland is in the same boat as they were in LA to take on the Chargers and are flying back across the country as well. This game comes down to a pure football perspective. And man-for-man, the Cardinals are better at a lot of positions. Kyler Murray will make more plays than Baker Mayfield, and the Cardinals’ defense will be the difference in this one. There aren’t too many opportunities to be able to get a 5-0 team as an underdog of upwards of eight points. This is one of them, and we are going to be all over it.
There are none. As of writing this, most spreads fall outside of the sweet spot for the BST we promote. If you see any games come down to -7.5 to -8.5 or +1.5 to +2.5, tease those teams appropriately.
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