NFL Divisional Round Betting Predictions: Best Props Rams at Packers
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers, Lambeau Field, 4:30 p.m. EST. Jan 16, 2021.
When the Los Angeles Rams take on the Green Bay Packers on Divisional Round Saturday, it will mark the third meeting between the teams in the postseason, with two meetings coming as the Los Angeles Rams and one coming as the St. Louis Rams (2001). These two teams come into this contest in different fashions as the Packers are rested courtesy of a bye week thanks to winning the NFC. The Rams backed into the playoffs with a Week 17 win against a Kyler Murray-less Cardinals. And then found a way to beat the fraudulent Seahawks in the Wild Card Round despite losing their backup turned starting quarterback, John Wolford, early in the game. That forced Jared Goff to take over despite an injured thumb, and that allowed the Rams to run their entire offense. It’ll be interesting to see if Goff’s thumb can hold up against a defense that is vastly underrated.
As of writing this, the Packers are 6.5-point favorites, with the total set at 45.5. Based on what we saw from the Rams in last week’s game vs. the Seahawks, they are in great form. And if they can run the football with a similar level of production, they could give the Packers fits at home. While I see the Rams having some success, the Packers simply don’t lose at home. Aaron Rodgers is a man on a mission this season – set to capture the MVP award (likely) – and he’ll have the offense humming against a defense that could be without Aaron Donald. Instead of laying a touchdown in a playoff game, we’ll look at some props that we expect to hit with relative ease.
Team Total Points
Los Angeles Rams– “Over 18.5” -120, “Under 18.5”, -120
Unless this game is being played in a snowstorm, I believe the Rams could grab a turnover that sets them up with a short field or perhaps a defensive touchdown, which will push them over this total. Look, the Rams are now playing with house money. They should be loose and ready to unleash their playbook now that Jared Goff is back under center. I know he’s dealing with a thumb issue, but he made carving up the Seahawks look pretty routine. It also helps that they got production in the run game from Cam Akers. If they can replicate that against the 13th-ranked rush defense, the play-action pass will be there and the offense will have multiple dimensions to attack with. This game figures to be high scoring with the Packers’ offense ranking first in points per game. The Rams know they aren’t going to win 17-14, so I can see them pulling out all the stops and hitting at least the 21-point mark.
Pick: Over 18.5 -120
Player Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers- “Over” 259.5 -112, “Under” 259.5, -112
How do you go against Aaron Rodgers in a home playoff game? The man has been on an absolute tear this season and is about to win the MVP award. Rodgers has topped the 260-yard passing mark 10 times this season, and I believe he can make that 11 against a Rams defense that is good but not that good. Look, if Aaron Donald cannot play in this contest, the Packers are going to run away with this game. Rodgers will have all day to sit back and pick the Rams’ secondary apart and the game will get out of hand in a hurry. That’ll help our prop above as the Rams will need to score, and I believe they will, which leads to the Packers keeping their foot on the gas pedal. Rodgers is on an “eff you” tour this season, and there would be no better way to make a statement than by A) torching the Rams through the air and B) reaching the Super Bowl, where anything can happen.
Pick: Over 259.5
Aaron Jones- “Over” 3.5 -112, “Under” 3.5, -112
Barring a disastrous snowstorm, the Packers are going to throw the football with abundance. We already know that Jalen Ramsey is going to cover Davante Adams in this contest. And outside of Ramsey, the other CBs and the rest of the secondary can be vulnerable. Rodgers loves his check-down options if the first route is not available. And Aaron Jones has been a dual threat running back since he was “freed” in the offense. Jones has caught 47 passes this season and has caught more than four passes seven times this year. That’s incredible for a running back. We see him leaking out of the backfield on several passing plays that either take too long to develop or are designed for Jones to get the ball in space. This is a low number, and we are going to take the over in this one.
Pick: Over 3.5
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