NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Best Prop Bets Rams at Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks, Lumen Field, 4:40 p.m. EST. Jan 9, 2021.
When the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks on Wild-Card Saturday it will mark the third meeting between the teams this season and will be one of two wild-card matchups that feature division rivals. These two teams come into this contest in different fashions as the Seahawks are riding a four-game winning streak and won the division at 12-4. The Rams backed into the playoffs with a Week 17 win against a Kyler Murray-less Cardinals – a game in which John Wolford got the start under center. The offense on display was so bad in that contest that Wolford didn’t lead a single touchdown drive for his team despite becoming the first QB in NFL history to throw for at least 200 yards and rush for 50-plus yards in his first start. Wolford, by way of Wake Forest, is going to need to be a hell of a lot better if he’s going to go toe-to-toe with Russell Wilson.
As of writing this, the Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 43. Based on what we’ve seen from these two teams over the last month or so of the regular season, and based on the first two meetings, I believe there is a little value still on the “under”. As for the spread, the Seahawks are favorites for a reason, especially with the Rams being without Jared Goff under center. However, these two teams always play each other tightly, so it wouldn’t shock me to see this being a three- or four-point game either way. Instead of worrying about the side or the total, I’ve keyed a few props that I believe give us the best shot of turning a profit.
Team Total Points
Seattle Seahawks – “Over 23.5” -120, “Under 23.5”, -120
There has been a lot of talk this season about Russell Wilson and the possibility of capturing that elusive MVP trophy. Wilson did lead the pack at one point this season before his team dropped three of four in early November. Wilson is undoubtedly the most important piece to the Seahawks’ chances at winning this contest and progressing deeper into the playoffs and ultimately to the Super Bowl. Wilson has a history of playing well against the Rams, and we see that continuing for this contest. Wilson is 18-8 against the Rams franchise and has thrown 25 TDs to just 11 interceptions. What does that tell me? Well regardless of how good the Rams’ defense has been (they’ve had some great ones over the past couple of seasons), Wilson always finds a way. If you add in the fact that Wolford – a rookie – will be under center for his first career playoff game, we see the Seahawks capitalizing on one or two turnovers from the rookie and turning those into points, whether that’s directly with a defensive touchdown, or setting up Wilson with a short field. The Seahawks average 28.7 points per game and will come close to that mark in what should be Seahawks’ victory.
Pick: Over 23.5 -120
Player Receiving Yards
David Moore - “Over” 19.5 -112, “Under” 19.5, -112
We’ve all heard the story about how great of a teammate Russell Wilson is. Last week, he purposely changed a called kneel-down to a pop pass for David Moore so he could secure a bonus in his contract. That momentum and goodwill is going to carry over into this contest, and we believe Moore is going to have a big game. While Moore has topped 20 receiving yards just twice over his last five games, he has done so nine times this year which is more than half the game he’s played. He’s a big-play threat and he could strike at any time. The last time these two teams hooked up, Moore had one catch for 45 yards on a chunk play downfield. That’s good enough for me to trust something similar will happen this week. The Rams’ defense will likely have-their priorities set on D.K Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have beat the Rams for eight catches and 79 yards, and 8 eight for 110 yards, respectively. In a game where we expect the Rams to try and control the time of possession and limit the Seahawks’ opportunities, we believe the Seahawks are going to come out with a sense of urgency when they have the ball and Wilson will distribute the ball evenly. This is a low line, and we’ll take a shot with the over.
Pick; Over 19.5
Chris Carson - “Over” 59.5 -112, “Under” 59.5, -112
The Rams have a really good defense. If the offense was anywhere close to the level of effectiveness of their defensive units, they’d be among the Super Bowl favorites this postseason. Instead, they are underdogs in the wild-card round. The Rams’ defense ranks third against the run, and we don’t envision the Seahawks finding a way to break through on the ground and have a big game. The offensive line is worrisome in the run game, and Chris Carson hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet in any of his last handful of games. This is going to be a game in which Russell Wilson is going to make things happen on his own and Chris Carson will be reserved to spectator out of the backfield and/or pass protector. Take the under on this total.
Pick: Under 59.5
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