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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/8/2022

NFL betting predictions Week 10 with Opening Line picks Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Week 9 is in the rearview mirror, as we look ahead to the opening lines for Week 10. We went 1-2 last week, with the Titans covering the mammoth spread with ease, while the Dolphins and Cardinals fell short. This brings our Against the Spread record to 9-4 on the year, and we will be looking to improve on that in Week 10. It’s entering crunch time for the Super Bowl hopefuls, as the division races begin to take shape. Before we jump into Week 10, here are the biggest storylines from Week 9.


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  • The Bills falter: The Bills headed to New York as 10.5-point favorites and lost outright to the Jets. To make matters worse, QB Josh Allen got injured on the final drive, dampening the exuberance in Buffalo.
  • Don’t sleep on the Jets: While Week 9 couldn't have gone worse for the Bills, the Jets continue to prove they are on the other side of their rebuild. Sitting at 6-3, the Jets have a very legitimate chance at a postseason berth. However, the inconsistent play from Zach Wilson leaves them with an outside shot of any playoff success. 
  • Vegas doesn’t always win: The casinos in Vegas may always win, but the Raiders do not. After blowing a 17-point lead to the Jaguars, the Raiders moved to 2-6. The slim chance of a playoff berth for Vegas is quickly evaporating.
  • Miami can score: While the defense for the Dolphins still has room for improvement, Tua Tagovailoa continues to put on spectacular performances and is ready to lead the Dolphins into the playoffs. A 35-32 win over the Bears has them 6-3, with the Browns, a bye, and the Texans on the horizon to close out November. 
  • Green Bay keeps sinking: The Packers have now lost 5 straight after a 15-9 loss to the Lions in Week 8. Just when the Packers look like they can’t get worse, they find a way to disappoint again. 
  • Respect for Geno Smith: Geno Smith has been training and waiting for his chance to lead an NFL team, and he has made good on his chance. He is 4th in touchdowns, and 6th is passing yards, and has led the Seahawks to a 6-3 record and first place in the NFC West. 
  • Vintage Brady: Staring straight into a 4th straight defeat, Tom Brady picked up the ball, down 13-9 to the defending Super Bowl champs. With only 44 seconds on the clock, Brady marched his team down the field, and sealed the victory with a touchdown with 9 seconds left. There is still a lot wrong in Tampa Bay, but first place in the NFC South is still very much up for grabs. 

Time for Week 10. The opening lines have dropped, and it’s critical to lock in the value early in the week. Tying up the bankroll for a few days can hurt, but saving that extra point or two can make all the difference in the long run. Let’s get into it:

Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chiefs are coming off a Week 9 overtime win against the Titans that saw Patrick Mahomes do what Patrick Mahomes does. He put the Chiefs on his back for a late TD drive to send the game to overtime and finished with 446 passing yards. However, I don’t expect him to have to do it again against Jacksonville. The Chiefs will not be happy they went down early in front of the Arrowhead faithful and will want to put the Jaguars out early. The Chiefs have made Arrowhead one of the toughest atmospheres in the NFL, and I expect them to use the home-field advantage and ride out a double-digit victory. While Jacksonville managed to erase a 17-point deficit in Week 9 against the Raiders, The Chiefs are an entirely different beast, and Trevor Lawrence will be no match for Mahomes. The Jaguars have been far too inconsistent to succeed against the top teams in the NFL. If the Chiefs can get ahead early, I expect them to keep the Jaguars at bay, and squash any glimmers of hope they may have. In short, the Chiefs take a double-digit lead into halftime and never look back.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Game 2: Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders

Opening Line: Las Vegas Raiders (-6)

Just when it looked as though it couldn’t get worse for the Raiders… it did. After storming out to a 17-0 lead against the Jaguars, the Raiders collapsed, losing 27-20. The defense has never looked worse, and the once potent Raiders offense can no longer outscore its defensive issues. After getting shut out in Week 8, the Raiders once again put up 0 second half points in Week 9. The confidence is at an all-time low, but at least they have an NFL caliber coach, something that cannot be said about their opponents. Across the field stands the Indianapolis Colts, led by Jeff Saturday. Saturday has never coached an NFL or college football game,. And while he is a former Pro Bowl and Super Bowl winner, it is quite the jump to go straight to the NFL. The Colts also have no legitimate quarterback, an injured star running back, and a 3-5-1 record to go with it. However, despite this, I am going to side with the Colts. They have been far from impressive, but I do believe they are being undervalued here. The Raiders have a wide variety of their own problems, and six free points for the Colts feels like a gift. It won't be pretty, but the Colts will get the cover.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+6)

Game 3: Arizona Cardinals at LA Rams

Opening Line: LA Rams (-3)

The LA Rams are putting together one of the worst Super Bowl defenses ever seen. Their offense has put up an average of 14.0 PPG in the last five outings, and they own a 1-4 record in that span. Despite keeping most of their core, the Rams have not looked like the same team. Their defense has kept them in games. However, unless the offense picks up soon, a playoff berth will slip away from the Rams. Matthew Stafford has not looked the same as his first season in LA, and the receiving group took a hit with Odell Beckham Jr. departing. However, I am expecting a bounce back here. The Cardinals consistently fail to meet expectations and are the perfect candidate to help the Rams to break out of their funk. The defense almost pulled out the win in Week 9, and I expect them to get the job done against Arizona. Kyler Murray is a talented quarterback and is getting used to having his favorite weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, back, but it won’t be enough. The Rams know it is now or never to save their season. And with a short spread at home, I expect them to get the job done, and cover in the process.

Pick: LA Rams (-3)

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