NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks
Another week in the books as the NFL moves into the middle part of the season. There were many key games and the Week 5 takeaways are as follows:
- Let Russ Cook: The Broncos put on another snoozefest in primetime in a touchdown free game. The Wilson era is in serious jeopardy of ending early.
- NFC Least no more: The NFC East has shaken the reputation of the worst division in football. There are 5 teams sitting at 4-1 or better, 3 of which call the NFC East home.
- Who can stop Buffalo? The Bills dominated the Steelers, easily covering the 14-point spread. After a hiccup in Miami, the Bills are still the team to beat this year.
- Who wants the AFC South? After another bad showing, all 4 teams have major question marks. Someone has to win the division, and 9 wins may be enough to do so.
- The Ravens get it done: Lamar Jackson continues to flourish in his 5th NFL season, leading a solid Ravens team. A couple mistakes cost the Ravens a 5-0 record, but they got the job done against the Bengals.
- Brady gets bailed out: The Falcons put on a good display against the Bucs but fell short due to a bad call. The Buccaneers can’t rely on performances like this if Brady wants to collect his 8th Super Bowl ring.
The lines have dropped for Week 6. And keeping what we’ve learned last week, and throughout the season in mind, here are three bets that must be made today. The lines will swing before kickoff on the weekend, so make sure you lock in these picks ASAP. Here are my early picks with the best value for the week with detailed analysis.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Game 1: Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens -5
I feel this is a great ‘sell-high’ spot for the New York Giants. The Giants have played solid football to start the year, amassing a 4-1 record. However, they have yet to string together convincing wins, sitting at a mere +10 point difference. Don’t get me wrong, what they did in London, shutting down reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, was very impressive, but I’m not convinced. Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have been dominant to start the year. And other than a remarkable 21-point comeback from Miami, and a razor close Bills game, the Ravens have been flawless. I don’t feel confident betting on the Giants to shut down Jackson and keep the game close, and I foresee a 7+ point lead for the Ravens for a majority of the game. Taking road favorites is always scary, but Ravens -5 is the bet to make before this line swells any higher.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -5
Game 2: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers -5.5
Through 5 weeks of the season, both of these teams have played above expectations. The 49ers have flexed their defensive muscle, allowing 19 or fewer points in each game this season, while the Falcons have defied the odds and played 5 very tight games thus far. Heading into Week 6, the Falcons will be looking for revenge after a horrific roughing the passer call improved Brady’s record to 9-0 against the Falcons. Led by Marcus Mariotta, the Falcons have played solid football on both sides of the ball and are never out of a game. Visiting Atlanta on Sunday are the gritty 49ers. San Francisco lost their starting QB, Trey Lance, for the season, but Jimmy Garoppolo has stepped up in his place. Despite the fact they are coming off a dominant win over the Panthers, this line feels a bit steep for me. The Falcons have managed to keep games close. And considering they are at home, I feel it will be another tight encounter. They probably drop to 2-4, but good teams win, and great teams cover. This is something the Falcons have done in all 5 games this year.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +5.5
Game 3: Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5
In a massive NFC East matchup, the Eagles are taking on the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Cooper Rush has rattled off 4 straight wins and has led the Cowboys to a stellar 4-1 record on the back of one of the scariest defenses in the league. Having just defeated reigning Super Bowl champion LA Rams in Week 5, the Cowboys will certainly be confident they can take the division lead with a convincing win. With Dak Prescott available to play, there will be interesting conversations about who gets the primetime start. Across the field stands the only undefeated team in the league, the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts has taken great leaps in his 3rd season with the Eagles and has led an electric offense thus far. With numerous tools at his disposal, including DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, and Dallas Goedert, Hurts feels this is the beginning of a new era in Philly. I’m not stepping in front of these Eagles. They are at home, facing their fiercest rival, and will certainly not be looking to give them the honor of blemishing their perfect record. Considering the question marks surrounding the Cowboys quarterback, it’s critical to get this line while it’s still available. There will be fluctuations as the week progresses, and at -5, I’m more than happy to lock in the Eagles at this price.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5
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