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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/17/2022

NFL Week 7 opening line report Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers

We went 2-1 in NFL Week 6, cashing in on both the Eagles and the Falcons. Unfortunately, the bird parlay couldn’t be completed as the Giants upset the Ravens. Week 7 has some interesting opening lines that must be taken advantage of soon, but first let’s dive into the takeaways from an exciting slate of Week 6 games.

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  • Packers are in trouble: The Packers are 3-3 after a lackluster performance against the Jets at Lambeau Field. No disrespect to the Jets, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have to turn the season around, otherwise a fourth straight NFC North crown will quickly slip away. 
  • Hats off to Daboll: The Giants are 5-1 and must be taken seriously. Brian Daboll has turned this team around, and the first playoff appearance since 2016 is well within reach.
  • The Falcons can run: Running the ball has been critical to the Falcons success and has them sitting at 3-3, with the hardest part of their schedule behind them. The rebuild could be over as soon as this season.
  • End of an era? The page is turning in regards to the top QB’s in the league. Brady and Rodgers both lost as 7.5+ favorites, while Allen and Mahomes delivered another instant classic. The aging veterans have been doubted before, but time is running out for either to add to their Hall of Fame careers.
  • Fly Eagles Fly: The Eagles remain perfect, manhandling the Cowboys while improving to 6-0 heading into the bye. Considering their next 3 games are against Houston, Pittsburgh, and Washington, the Eagles could be a perfect 10-0 heading into Thanksgiving. 
  • Burrow and Chase love New Orleans: Burrow and Chase return to the Superdome for the first time after winning the 2020 National Championship there. They connected for 2 TDs and 132 yards on route to a thrilling Bengals win. Home away from home. 
  • Watch out for Miami: Miami has managed to compete, despite terrible quarterback play. Upon Tua’s return in Week 7, the Dolphins will become a legitimate NFL powerhouse. 

Week 6 has come to an end, and straight into Week 7 we go. The opening lines have dropped. And considering the performances we saw in Week 6, they won’t be staying here for long. The Bills, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings are all on a bye, leaving us with a collection of bottom-feeders to choose from. Personally, I love betting games like these, and the lines must get locked in before they swing before kickoff. Last week we had the Ravens go from -5 to -5.5, the Eagles from -5 to -6.5, and the Falcons from +5.5 to +4.5. These critical points are the difference between winning and losing in sports betting, so let’s get right into it.

Game 1: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The long-awaited return of Dak Prescott is upon us, as the Cowboys host the Lions in Week 7. Cooper Rush filled in admirably, leaving the Cowboys with a 4-2 record after winning his first five career NFL starts. Prescott deserves a chance to keep his starting role. However, real questions may be asked if the season does not go to plan in Dallas. The Lions are hoping to be a part of Dak’s demise, as they are coming off their bye week with plans to get back in the win column. While the Lions defense has left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths, Jared Goff and the Lions offense is never out of a game, which is why I’m all over the free TD we are getting on Sunday. Three of their 4 losses have been by four points or less, and Dallas isn’t a team capable of blowing them out. Dallas’s defensive line is their strong suit, and I expect a tight, low-scoring game throughout the contest. As long as it’s relatively close in the second half, this cover should hit with ease.

Pick: Detroit Lions (+7)

Game 2: New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

The New York Giants must be taken seriously, and this line is not reflective of that fact. The Giants have put together a solid season, and Jacksonville has failed to find that consistency. The Jaguars have lost three straight. And while Trevor Lawrence has played well in his second season, it has been nowhere good enough to deserve this kind of respect. Until Lawrence can show me that he can deliver as a top half quarterback, I will not be betting on his Jaguars as favorites, against 5-1 teams. The smothering defense the Giants bring to the table, and the powerful running from Saquon Barkley, will leave the Jaguars desperate for points. The Giants have been able to churn up the clock while giving their defense the much-needed rest they deserve. This style of play has resulted in the Giants giving up 23 or fewer points in every game this season. Unless you’re planning on the lowly Jaguars breaking that streak, or on Barkley being shut down, the Giants will cover the short spread and likely win outright in the process.

Pick: New York Giants (+3) and ML +145

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

While both of these teams are coming off losses in Week 6, there is reason for optimism within the franchises. The Chiefs have a good chance of securing their 7th straight AFC West crown, and the 49ers continue to ride a solid defense and the electric Deebo Samuel on offense. The 49ers lost starting QB Trey Lance early in the season, but that hasn’t hurt them as Jimmy Garoppolo is the best backup in the league, and the 49ers have a very run-heavy coach. However, I’m worried for this team against the Chiefs. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons executed a perfect game plan that relied on using their mobile QB to keep the defense guessing. Up steps Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is one of the elite QBs in the league and will be able to use his legs and creativity to beat up on the 49ers. Furthermore, after losing to the Super Bowl favorites Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the Chiefs will be especially motivated to beat a fellow playoff hopeful. Expect the Chiefs to get out to an early lead and force the 49ers to play catch up, something they desperately want to avoid. In short, the Chiefs ride a double-digit first half lead to a comfortable two-score win.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

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