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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/1/2022

NFL betting predictions Week 9 opening line picks Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans

Week 8 is in the books, as we went 3-0 on picks last week. Titans, Commanders, and Dolphins all won outright and covered their spreads in the process. There has never been more parity in the league, with 17 teams within two games of .500. Week 9 represents the halfway point of the season, and the upcoming weeks will tell us who are the contenders and who are the pretenders. Before jumping in, let’s look at the biggest storylines from Week 8.

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  • The Ravens are legit: The Ravens are three blown 4th quarter leads from being 8-0. On Thursday Night Football, the Ravens beat down on the Buccaneers in front of the Tampa Bay faithful. As long as Lamar Jackson continues to shine, the sky's the limit for this team. 
  • Reality check in New York: The Giants and Jets both lost, largely due to the fact their inexperienced quarterbacks couldn’t perform. While the torrid starts these teams had is great, there still might be a year left of their respective rebuilds.
  • It’s Tua time: Tua Tagovailoa is a beast. The Dolphins quarterback put on another 5-star performance, throwing for 382 yards and 3 TDs, while going 29/36. The Dolphins had some early season concerns, but a healthy Tagovailoa makes them a very dangerous franchise. 
  • Let Zeke eat? Tony Pollard played the game of his life, running for 131 yards and 3 TDs. The Cowboys remain adamant that the starting role still belongs to Ezekiel Elliott. However, how many more quality Pollard performances are needed before they move on?
  • Eagles stay perfect: The 7-0 Eagles stayed perfect and beat the Steelers by three scores. The Texans and Commanders are on the horizon, leaving the Eagles in a very good position to extend the unbeaten run. 
  • In Taylor we trust: Taylor Heinicke has led the Washington Commanders to back-to-back wins, moving them back up to 4-4. The team plays better as a whole with him under center over Carson Wentz. The undrafted gunslinger has given new life to a dying franchise. 
  • McCaffrey stars in LA: Christian McCaffrey threw, caught, and ran for a touchdown in the 49ers demolition of defending Super Bowl champions, the LA Rams. His addition to an already versatile 49ers offense makes them instant Super Bowl contenders. 

Moving on from our 3-0 showing in Week 8, the opening lines have dropped for Week 9. It’s critical to lock in value early on in the week, as there can be drastic line swings before Sunday’s kickoff. When beating the bookie, every half point is critical for long term success. Let’s dive into Week 9.

Game 1: Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Miami Dolphins (-5)

The Dolphins are coming off a big win against the Lions, improving to 5-3 this year. Tua Tagovailoa has come back from his concussion and stays undefeated in games he has completed. Entering Week 9, the Dolphins are up against a Chicago defense that was torn apart by the Cowboys, letting them into the endzone a league high seven times. While the Bears did finally manage some offense, it wasn’t nearly enough to stay competitive. Justin Fields is a mobile quarterback playing in a stagnant offense. Until offensive coordinator Bill Lazor loosens the reign on Fields, the Bears will continue to struggle. The line is set 5 points right now but will almost certainly swell up to -6.5 or -7 before kickoff. The Dolphins have proven they can tear apart the top NFL defenses, and the Bears are far from that. Unless the turnover battle is won by the Bears, a comfortable Dolphins win is on the horizon.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (-5)

Game 2: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

The Cardinals came up short against the Vikings in Week 8, turning the ball over four times en route to a 34-26 loss. Kyler Murray had a decent game, and it was competitive throughout. The Cardinals are figuring out their problems on both sides of the ball and could be a team to watch in the second half. DeAndre Hopkins is back from his suspension and has made an instant impact, going for 102 yards and 159 yards with a touchdown in his two games this season. Across the field stands the Seattle Seahawks, sitting at a very surprising 5-3. Geno Smith has exceeded expectations and could lead the Seahawks back into the playoffs. The running game is strong, and the use of complementary football has led this team to success. However, a trip to Arizona will put the fairytale on pause. The Cardinals have the offensive style needed to shred apart the Seahawks defense and have the defensive tenacity to foil Smith and the Seahawks running backs. The gap between worst and first in the NFC West will be down to one game after Week 9, as the Cardinals squeak out a win at home.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

Game 3: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

On Sunday Night Football, the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Tennessee Titans to Arrowhead stadium. The Titans beat the Texans 17-10 in Week 8, improving to 5-2, and stretching their win streak to 5 games. The defense in Tennessee has been immaculate, holding teams to 17 or fewer points in the last four games. While the passing game leaves a lot to be desired, the Titans running game surrounding Derrick Henry is a joy to watch. The powerful running back sends fear into defensive players, as he has shown time and time again that he will run right through men. As long as the defense continues to step up, the Titans can run out the clock and stay competitive against anyone. The Chiefs are coming off the bye week, most recently beating the 49ers 44-23 in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes is an elite NFL quarterback, and the receiving options at his disposal are second to none. The Chiefs offense has been able to compensate for their 23rd ranked defense, but I’m not convinced they will be able to contain Henry and the Titans. I’m not saying the Titans are going to come into Arrowhead and run rampant over the Chiefs, but I do think it stays close. The Chiefs defense will have no answer for Henry, and the ball will stay out of Mahomes’ hands for extended stretches of the game. Getting 12.5 points for free makes me very comfortable betting on the Titans. Take the 12.5 points and sprinkle a little on the Moneyline at +475.

Pick: Tennessee Titans (+12.5)

2022 NFL Record ATS: 8-2 (80% win rate)

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