NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 15
A new week of the NFL season starts tonight, and I’m excited as there are some beautiful bets to be made. I’m usually looking for the best values on spreads, but this week my eye is on the moneyline. I’m very confident that we are going to have a good weekend.
As the season is winding down, we are getting more football than in previous weeks. For the remainder of the season, all 32 teams will be playing on the weekend. Some games will be held on Saturdays, allowing us to focus more on individual games. This makes the weekend a lot more enjoyable, as we can enjoy watching our picks cash in.
So, without further hesitation, here are our week 15 NFL confidence pool picks. As a reminder, these will be ranked from strongest to weakest. All picks are straight up and don’t involve the spread, so these picks can be valuable for NFL survivor pools and moneyline betting.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Kansas City Chiefs (-950) over Houston Texans: 16 points
The Chiefs win this game easily, as the Texans won't have enough defense to stop their offense. The Texans are the worst football team in the NFL in my opinion, and I will fade them, especially against good teams like this. I expect to see a dominant performance by the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles (-400) over Chicago Bears: 15 Points
The Eagles have been laser focused on winning their division this season. They match up against a team that should honestly be playing for the best available pick in the next draft. The Eagles showed absolute dominance against the Giants last week, and I expect a similar performance here as they are facing an inferior opponent.
Dallas Cowboys (-210) over Jacksonville Jaguars: 14 Points
The Cowboys are in second place in the NFC East, and they are looking to stay hot as they hope for an Eagles loss in order to close the gap for first place. This team is poised for a playoff run even if they don't win the division. I don't expect the Jaguars to be much of a challenge here, as the Cowboys will show up prepared to win. They had a poor performance against the Texans last week, but I'm very confident that was due to underestimating their opponent.
San Francisco 49ers (-180) over Seattle Seahawks: 13 Points
Brock Purdy looked good against the Buccaneers last week. This 49ers team is one of the more complete teams in the NFL as they are strong on both sides of the ball. I don't expect Purdy to be a superstar, but from what I saw last week I expect them to do just enough to get the job done here. The loss of Debo Samuels is concerning, but the 49ers have enough talent to walk away with the win in this rivalry.
Buffalo Bills (-335) over Miami Dolphins: 12 Points
As much as I love the Dolphins this season, the Bills are the team to pick here as this team has been very good. As long as Josh Allen has the ball in his hands, the Bills chances of winning are extremely high. The Dolphins have one of the only offenses that I believe that can keep up with the Bills. However, the Bills do have a stronger defense. With a win here, the Bills almost guarantee themselves the AFC East. Look for them to show up laser focused on this game.
New Orleans Saints (-200) over Atlanta Falcons:11 Points
The Saints do enough to win this game here. The Falcons had some positive momentum early in the season, as it looked like Marcus Mariota was operating the offense properly. Shortly after, the wheels fell off and the team came to a complete roadblock. Mariota has also gone down with an injury, so this adds more to the pile of uncertainty that the Falcons have to deal with. I expect the Saints to win this game, as Andy Dalton and company have been operating very efficiently.
Minnesota Vikings (-215) over Indianapolis Colts: 10 points
The Vikings win this game. They lost last week to the Detroit Lions in a divisional matchup due to their inability to stop the Lions offense. The Colts don't have the type of offense the Lions do. Therefore, it will be easier for the Vikings to contain them and take over. The Vikings are very explosive, unlike the Colts. They could crack a big play at any time, which is a big advantage. The Colts usually don't do that well against overwhelming offenses like the Vikings, and I expect them to continue their struggle to keep up on offense.
Los Angeles Chargers (-152) over Tennessee Titans: 9 Points
The Chargers have been playing well. I expect them to come out on top in this game. Like I mentioned last week, the Chargers are one of the best first-half teams in the NFL. Their woes come in the second half, as they have struggled to contain on defense and keep up the offensive production. The Chargers hold a major advantage over the Titans, which is the ability to pass the ball and move down the field quickly. The Titans are predominantly a running team, and I have seen them struggle against heavy passing teams throughout the year. I expect to see something similar here.
Washington commanders (-210) over New York Giants: 8 Points
This is going to be an interesting matchup as these two teams played in a thriller two weeks ago. That game ended in a tie, and it was quite impressive. With this game coming up, I'm giving the upper hand to the Commanders, as they have been very efficient with Taylor Heinicke operating the offense. The Commanders are coming off a bye week, which is beneficial to them as they had played the Giants the game before their bye week. That means that they have had essentially three weeks to prepare for this game. The way the Giants play is still fresh on their mind, and that should have a major advantage in this game. Rest, plus a longer time to construct a game plan, is usually a recipe for a win.
Detroit Lions (-108) over New York Jets: 7 Points
The Lions have a unique offense that has been underrated. They had some issues with injuries in the beginning of the year. However, as players started to return from the injury list, they have been very overwhelming for teams on the offensive side of the ball. We saw how they were able to pull a win away from the Vikings last week as they outplayed them on offense. This is a team that you can't make many errors against, because they will capitalize. The Jets have a good defense to counter the offense the Lions bring to the table. However, the struggles for the Jets come on the offensive side of the ball, as they sometimes struggle to move the ball down the field or limit turnovers.
Cleveland Browns (-148) over Baltimore Ravens: 6 Points
The Browns hold the upper hand here as Lamar Jackson will most likely sit out as he recovers from his injury. The Browns will let Deshaun Watson loose this week, and he will fully run the offense to the best of his abilities as this is his third week on the field with the team. Look for the Browns to take advantage of this opportunity as they dropped the last game to the Bengals. The Browns defense will be a problem for the Ravens with Jackson out of the mix. The Browns should win here.
New England Patriots (-106) Over Las Vegas Raiders: 5 Points
I have the Patriots over the Raiders here in a simple decision to back the best defense. Both offenses have been very inconsistent throughout the season. It’s hard to trust either side to put up many points. Here I will be back in the better defensive team, as the Patriots can make it very difficult for teams to find success on offense. I expect the Patriots to shut down Josh Jacobs, as they are pretty good at stopping the run.
Denver Broncos (-142) over Arizona Cardinals: 4 Points
Kyler Murray has been ruled out for the season, and this is huge for the Cardinals. Even with the awful quarterback he was this season, he was still able to extend plays on his feet as he is one of the fastest players in the NFL. This should be a drastic disadvantage against the Broncos, who have a stingy defense. I doubt Colt McCoy is going to make a huge difference here. The Cardinals do not have a strong offensive line, and this makes it easier for the Broncos defense to bring pressure since McCoy isn’t very mobile.
Los Angeles Rams (+240) over Green Bay Packers: 3 Points
Call me crazy, but Baker Mayfield didn't look completely horrible last week. With just two days to learn the offensive playbook, he was able to pull a win away in a heroic fourth-quarter comeback. This is a huge letdown spot for the Packers, as they have been inconsistent throughout the season. They will run into Baker Mayfield, who has a chip on his shoulder and a lot to prove as he has been tossed around like scrap this season. I have a good feeling about the Rams here, and we are getting them at a beautiful line. The only problem is how frequently can they get a stop.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+166) over Cincinnati Bengals: 2 Points
The Bucs are coming off of a crushing loss last week against the 49ers. They had injury issues on the defensive side of the ball, so they were limited to what they could do. The Bucs haven't been the best offensive team this season, but they have improved. Their success heavily relies on how well Tom Brady can find Mike Evans during important downs. I'm taking the Bucs over the Bengals because I'm not a big fan of the Bengals offensive line. They are horrible at protecting Joe Burrow. When Burrow doesn't have enough time to find his top targets, the Bengals are usually in trouble. I expect there to be some heavy pass rush on him this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+116) over Carolina Panthers: 1 Point
I like the Steelers here as they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. When a team usually plays with little to no pressure on their backs, it's easy for them to perform because they have nothing to worry about. I expect them to win this game. They have a stingy defense and an offense that seems to be finding an identity with Kenny Pickett under center. The Panthers can be surprising at times. I won't be surprised if they pulled off a win here because I know this game is a true coin flip. I just like the Steelers defense better. However, with coin flip games, I have learned that the team with the better defense usually is the best bet.
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