NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 17
Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.
After a rock-solid 13-3 week, Santa put coal in our stocking and a 6-10 record. Because I always strive to improve, I evaluate my picks and try to "reverse engineer" to see where I went wrong. For the most part, I favor home teams and usually don't pick many big upsets. It may make for a dull slate, but I aim for consistency over style. Home favorites went 6-3 SU, and favorites overall went 11-5 SU. I am on the right track but have had rotten luck with some picks. San Francisco committed five turnovers en route to their dismal Christmas defeat. Three of my misses were lost at the last minute, and then there is New England and Las Vegas. Their upset victories as heavy dogs over Denver and Kansas City make the National Football League the most popular professional league in America.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
16 points- San Francisco over Washington: San Francisco still holds the tiebreaker for first place in the NFC but the Niners are now tied again with Philadelphia and Detroit. Washington, down 20-0 in the second quarter to the New York Jets, mounted a frenzied rally and took the lead, only to watch victory slip away on a last-second field goal, the story of their season. The Niners win big to keep the road to Super Bowl LVII in Las Vegas running through San Francisco.
15 points- Philadelphia over Arizona: Injuries are starting to weaken a powerful Eagles squad, but they should still have enough firepower to overcome an Arizona team that is 1-10 SU in their last 11 road games and only 5-11 SU in their last 16 visits to the "City of Brotherly Love."
14 points- Buffalo over New England: While New England's coach, Bill Belichick, proved he still has a few tricks up his sleeves, his Patriots must now travel to face a Buffalo squad who has years of frustration and failure and most likely only one more game to exact revenge for the leader of all that failure. Add that Buffalo has the 6th-highest-scoring offense and 4th-best scoring defense, and it could be a rout.
13 points- Cleveland over NY Jets (TNF): With the kind of success Browns' QB Joe Flacco is having, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that Brett Favre or Donovan McNabb is beginning to offer their services again. In only four games, he became Cleveland's season leader in yards passing and touchdowns thrown leader. It will be interesting to see how he does against the Jets' 2nd-best passing yardage defense. The Browns are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
12 points- Rams over NY Giants: When the Rams are playing well, they can move the ball just as well as any offense in the league. They are currently in a wild card position but end the season at San Francisco, so the Rams need to win every game they can before that. Besides pissing Fox's Pam Oliver off on Christmas Day, Giants head coach Brian Daboll has now created a QB controversy by benching Tommy DeVito at halftime and bringing in Tyrod Taylor, which is exactly what a 5-10 team needs.
11 points- Dallas over Detroit (Sat. Night): Detroit won their first NFC North title in franchise history (the last time they won the division, it was the NFC Central in 1993). Their reward: Play an angry Cowboys team, that has dropped two in a row, in Dallas. Dallas's struggles have occurred away from Jerryland, as they are a perfect 15-0 SU at home over the past two seasons.
10 points- Denver over LA Chargers: Denver's playoff aspirations took a significant setback on Christmas Eve in their upset loss to New England. However, they look to get back on track by beating a Chargers team who is 1-9 SU in their last ten games at Mile High Stadium. After starting the season as a dumpster fire, the Broncos have gone 6-3 SU over their last nine games.
9 points- Kansas City over Cincinnati: While Kansas City has proven they aren't the juggernaut of years past, they still own the AFC, with a 13-3 SU mark in their last 16 games in the conference. While the Chiefs have had their problems, the issues have been primarily on the offensive side, as their defense is 2nd in the league in scoring at 17.7 points per game.
8 points- Baltimore over Miami: Miami's win last week was their first against a team with a winning record. Now, they travel to take on the team that is arguably the Super Bowl favorite at the moment. The Ravens are on a five-game winning streak, while the Dolphins are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Baltimore.
7 points- Green Bay over Minnesota: Minnesota has been one of the teams ravaged by injuries at the QB position. It's undecided who will start New Year's Eve night, but all signs point to rookie Jaren Hall out of BYU. The Packers have gone 5-3 SU over their last eight games and have much greater stability at the QB1 position.
6 points- Seattle over Pittsburgh: The Steelers made one last gasp with their win against Cincinnati last Saturday but finish the season on the road and will need to win out against Seattle and then their division rivals from Baltimore. Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in Seattle.
5 points- Chicago over Atlanta: A kind of bizarre trend that I'm going with here is Atlanta's inability to put together strong runs. Since 2021, they have been an NFL-worst 5-13-1 ATS following a straight-up win. Throw in they're traveling to Chicago, who is 3-1 SU in their last four games, and the Bears become a very live dog.
4 points- Indianapolis over Las Vegas: The Raiders were the architects of one of the big upsets last week, beating Kansas City on Christmas Day. However, they were outgained by over 100 yards and were the beneficiaries of two Chief turnovers. The win the week before, putting up 63 points against the Chargers, was much more impressive. But again, they caused five turnovers. Indianapolis's defense has caused 24 turnovers of their own, 6th in the NFL. The Colts are in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AFC South and win here to keep their seventh-seed intact.
3 points- Tampa Bay over New Orleans: This is the second meeting between these divisional foes, with Tampa Bay winning in Week 4, 26-9. The Saints are only one game out of first in the NFC South but have fallen upon hard times, going 2-4 SU in their last six games. Tampa Bay thrives within their division, going 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against the NFC South. They win and keep their precarious lead going into the season's final week.
2 points- Houston over Tennessee: The Texans' rookie QB, C.J. Stroud, is still in concussion protocol, but there are positive signs he might play this weekend. If not, journeyman Case Keenum has proven to be a solid backup, going 1-1 filling in for the rookie phenom. Tennessee continues to battle in almost every game but ultimately loses in excruciating fashion more often than not. Houston wins to keep the pressure on Jacksonville and Indianapolis for the division and playoff spot.
1 point- Jacksonville over Carolina: This game needs to be monitored, as Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence left the last game because of a shoulder injury and is questionable for Sunday. His backup, CJ Bethard, looked solid in relief but has not started since the 2020 regular-season finale in San Francisco. I believe that Jaguars coach Doug Pederson will "will his team to win," which could potentially clinch the division with a couple of other results. But Carolina has been playing inspired ball lately and, even with the worst record, won't get the #1 pick because of a deal that brought QB Bryce Young to Charlotte. Carolina's only two victories this season have been at home, and the Panthers are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road.
2023 Total Record
Week 1: 9-7 59 total points
Week 2: 12-4 119 total points
Week 3: 10-6 79 total points
Week 4: 10-6 97 total points
Week 5: 6-8 69 total points
Week 6: 11-4 84 total points
Week 7: 6-7 41 total points
Week 8: 11-5 101 total points
Week 9: No article
Week 10: 9-5 67 total points
Week 11: 10-4 85 total points
Week 12: 10-6 90 total points
Week 13: 8-5 58 total points
Week 14: 6-9 51 total points
Week 15: 13-3 113 points
Week 16: 6-10 67 points
Total: 124-86 (59%)
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Most Recent NFL Confidence Pool Picks
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 12
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 10
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 9
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 7
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5