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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 8/22/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 1 Kareem Hunt Kansas City Chiefs

It is no secret that the closing lines in the NFL are incredibly sharp, and beating them in the long run is not an easy task. However, one underexploited betting strategy is taking advantage of the opening lines. By locking in your bets early, you can secure a favorable line that may move in one direction or the other before kickoff. While an extra point or two against the spread in your favor may not seem consequential, that can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last season, we went 32-20-2 against the spread on the opening lines, resulting in a 61% win rate. Doc’s Sports will provide free opening lines picks every week, all season long, as we aim for our fourth consecutive profitable season with this strategy. These picks must be locked in immediately, as there are no guarantees these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around next week. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Game 1: Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

The NFL makes it a second straight season with a game in Brazil in Week 1, and taking the Chiefs at this soft line is a must bet. The public will be all over Kansas City when they realize this is not a home game for the Chargers and is in fact at a neutral site. The line will swell as a result, and even half a point movement in favor of the Chiefs will make a huge difference. An incredible 15% of NFL games finish with a final win margin of exactly 3 points, and the importance of securing a push instead of a loss with a field goal margin cannot be overemphasized. 

On the field, there is a lot to like about the Chiefs in this matchup. Kansas City might have an aging offense that will almost certainly be without Rashee Rice, but they still have one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Patrick Mahomes will be fired up for this matchup after being embarrassed in the Super Bowl last season. I expect a ruthless showing from the Chiefs offense. While Justin Herbert and company can certainly light up the scoreboard, the Chiefs defense will completely shut them down. Kansas City has built their dynasty on the back of a strong defense, and their pass rush will tear Herbert apart on Friday night. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis are two of the greatest linemen of this generation, capable of making a real impact when healthy. Not only that, but the season-ending injury to left tackle Rashawn Slater has left a giant hole for the Chargers to fill. Without Slater to protect his blindside, Herbert will have far less time against a hungry Chiefs pass rush. Kansas City will lean on their defense to kick off the season, as they have done countless times before. A short spread is not enough to deter us from tailing Kansas City, and this one must be locked in as soon as possible.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Game 2: Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots 

Opening Line: New England Patriots (-2.5)

The New England Patriots are set to emerge from their rebuild with a competitive squad, and they will open up the season with a victory against the Raiders. Drake Maye had a productive rookie season that was overshadowed by Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix last year. He will continue to develop, and the Patriots have the defense needed to make a surprising run to the postseason. Christian Gonzalez, Jabrill Peppers, and Carlton Davis make up one of the best secondaries in the league, and the Raiders don’t have the short game needed to succeed without deep balls over the top. New England will trust their corners and safeties in single coverage against the inaccurate Geno Smith, which will allow them to stack the box against the run. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders' defense was 25th in PPG allowed. Las Vegas dealt with injuries, but they didn’t plug the holes in their defense over the offseason, and Maye will pick them apart as a result. Neither of these teams has been remotely competitive in recent seasons. However, the Patriots' offseason moves will allow them to sneak away with a Week 1 victory. This line implies these two are evenly matched if it weren’t for New England’s home-field advantage, and that simply isn’t the case. The cherry on top is the fact that the Patriots' spread is just under the crucial three-point margin. There is little downside and massive upside to locking this one in now. 

Pick: New England Patriots (-2.5)

Game 3: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

These two NFC West rivals face off in Seattle to open up the season, and we will be siding with the home team to cover, if not win outright. Seattle underwent a massive offseason overhaul on offense, and their moves have left it with a very dangerous offense. Sam Darnold had the best season of his career last year, and the former Viking will continue to prove the doubters wrong with a strong Week 1 showing. The loss of DK Metcalf stings, but the Seahawks still have a solid receiving room with Jaxon Smith-Njigba teaming up with new arrivals Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Once you pair that with an explosive Kenneth Walker in the backfield, this Seattle offense has the pieces needed to take down the 49ers. While the 49ers have a good offense on paper, injuries to Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings have left them shorthanded. A healthy Christian McCaffrey can help in the passing game, but it is not as if anyone can confidently say Brock Purdy has a massive edge over Sam Darnold. The Seahawks can match up against the 49ers offensively, and it is a toss-up for which team is better on the other side of the ball. In a vacuum, the 49ers may be slightly better, but getting free points with the healthier team at home is the way to go. 

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Season Record: 0-0

2024 Season Record: 32-20-2

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