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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/11/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 11 opening line report Drake Maye New England Patriots

There are a few strategies you can use to make money betting against the spread in the NFL, and finding closing line value is the most effective one. Closing line value is when you lock in a bet early in the week, say Chiefs -3, then the closing line at kickoff swells to Chiefs -5. Those extra points of closing line value secured can be the difference between winning and losing over the course of the NFL season. 

Last week was a perfect example, as we went 2-1 against the spread thanks to our closing line value. The Chicago Bears opened at -3.5, which we took, before closing at -4.5 when kickoff rolled around on Sunday. Chicago went on to win 24-20 against the Giants, giving us a crucial victory. We also successfully tailed the Baltimore Ravens (-4) over the Minnesota Vikings, then fell short as the Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) got thrashed by the Seattle Seahawks. Before we jump into our Week 11 picks, here are the biggest storylines from around the league in Week 10. 

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  • Maye for MVP: Drake Maye has emerged as the MVP favorite (+300) after ripping off a seventh consecutive victory for New England. He has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five straight games, posting a 12/3 TD/INT ratio in that span. New England scored one touchdown in all four quarters in their win over the Buccaneers, putting Maye’s consistency on full display. 
  • Or will it be Jonathan Taylor? As Maye emerges as the best quarterback in the league, Jonathan Taylor is not far behind on the MVP odds. He posted 244 rushing yards with three touchdowns in Berlin, improving the Colts to 8-2 in the AFC. 
  • Ravens are surging: Baltimore is the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North after a third straight win brought them to 4-5 on the season. Their win over the Vikings, coupled with the Steelers' defeat against the Chargers, has them in control of their own playoff destiny. 
  • Trouble in Buffalo? The Bills are 2-3 in their last five games after getting demolished 30-13 against the Dolphins in Week 10. Josh Allen has been consistent, but a lack of other talent on both sides of the ball has the Bills in danger of missing the playoffs after a 5-0 start. 
  • Eagles win Ice Bowl: It was an ugly Monday Night matchup that went into halftime with a 0-0 scoreline. Frigid and windy conditions changed the game plans, but the Eagles' physicality was once again too much to overcome. A struggling NFC East could be clinched by the end of the month, as the reigning champions are rolling. 

Now that Week 10 is behind us, it is time to look ahead at the opening lines for Week 11. Nine of the fifteen matchups have spreads of 3.5 points or less, meaning every point will be crucial in what promises to be an action-packed week. 

Game 1: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Minnesota Vikings (-3)

This is the third week in a row we will be taking the Bears, and after two straight cashes, there is no reason to look elsewhere. The oddsmakers refuse to give Chicago the credit they deserve despite their 6-3 record, giving them a share of the NFC North lead. The Bears have been gradually improving on the defensive side of the ball, while Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams’ partnership continues to flourish. The Bears have won six of their last seven games outright, with their only defeat coming against the surging Ravens. They run the ball well, Williams has only been looking better and better every time he takes the field, and average defensive play will get them this outright win. On the other side of the field, the Vikings have lost three of their last four games as JJ McCarthy has consistently fallen short of expectations. A lack of film on McCarthy allowed him to find early-season success, but now that defensive coordinators can cook up a game plan for him, he has struggled. The Vikings' run game hasn’t been able to build momentum behind a mediocre offensive line, and McCarthy hasn’t been able to pull off the heroics he did during his NCAA career. Brian Flores is always capable of shutting down teams on the defensive side of the ball, but covering a three-point spread is a tall task against the Bears. This is a crucial number with nearly 20% of games finishing with a three-point margin of victory, making this a pick to make before the spread drops to 2.5. The Bears are the better team in this matchup, and scooping up some insurance makes this the top play of the week. 

Pick: Chicago Bears (+3)

Game 2: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
This is a massive divisional game for both of these teams at this stage of the season. The Falcons have dropped four in a row after starting the season 3-2, but a soft second half schedule means they still have a real shot at the playoffs if they get back on track. The Panthers are sitting at 5-5, but a defeat to the previously 1-8 Saints last week will leave a sour taste in their mouths heading into this matchup. Both teams are desperate for a win, and I expect this to be a very close matchup. The Panthers run offense has been amazing this season with Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, while the Falcons run defense is 29th in the league. Atlanta does a great job at taking away big plays down the field with the league’s best passing defense, but that won’t be necessary against Bryce Young and the Panthers. Young is happy to take his checkdowns, hand the ball off, and grind his way down the field. While the Panthers have a run game they can trust, the Falcons are completely lost on offense. They have two horrific quarterbacks to choose from, both of which have been among the worst in the league over the last month. This is still Michael Penix’s job, but his 86.8 QBR trails the likes of Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields, Marcus Mariota, and Kyler Murray this season. Uninspiring play has led to the Falcons downfall, and it is hard to justify an impactful spread in this matchup. Carolina’s ability to run the football will leave Penix impatient on offense, and a win by more than a field goal for the home team feels like a stretch. This will come down to the final possession, and that is exactly what we want with a spread like this.
Pick: Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

Game 3: Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Both of these teams are coming off extended rest, as Dallas had their bye while the Raiders haven’t played since last Thursday. However, this will be a season-defining game for the Cowboys in Las Vegas. Dallas’ trade deadline move to bring in Quinnen Williams, but that jubilation was curtailed by the passing of Marshawn Kneeland. This will be an emotional game for the Cowboys, and I expect them to walk away with a big win in honor of the late Kneeland. Dallas has been electric on offense this season, and a helpless Raiders defense will be their next victim. Las Vegas may have been able to shut down Denver last week, but a bumbling Broncos offense led by Bo Nix isn’t anywhere close to what Dallas has on that side of the ball. Dak Prescott has his full complement of weapons to choose from, and anything less than 30+ points would be surprising. Can we trust Geno Smith and the Raiders to keep up? I don’t think so. Las Vegas has been held to under 10 points on four separate occasions this season, and just traded away its top receiver. The Dallas defense is far from intimidating, but they still have what it takes to limit the Raiders' lackluster offense. 

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) 

Season Record: 14-16

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