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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/28/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 9 opening line report Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders

One of the most effective strategies to consistently win in the NFL is by securing closing line value. The closing lines are very sharp and virtually impossible to stay ahead of, but the opening lines are not as accurate. There will be significant line movement before kickoff rolls around, and locking in the best price possible is essential. Last week, we went 2-1 on our picks. The New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers made it look easy as -7 and -4.5 point favorites, both winning by three scores. Our lone loss was on the Carolina Panthers, who got absolutely crushed by the Bills as +7.5 point underdogs. A tantalizing slate of Week 9 matchups awaits, as the NFL season reaches the halfway mark. Before we jump into this week’s picks, here are the biggest storylines from an eventful Week 8. 

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  • Michael Penix’s job security: Getting injured with a backup quarterback making $180 million could have ended Penix’s time as the Falcons' starter. However, a 34-10 drubbing at the hands of the lowly Dolphins means Cousins will be right back on the bench when Penix is healthy again. 
  • Ravens aren’t dead yet: Baltimore picked up a crucial win thanks to strong play from Tyler Huntley to snap the Bears’ four-game win streak. They are still 2-5 and facing an uphill battle, but the Ravens suddenly have life with the Dolphins on tap this week. 
  • Jets…Win? The Jets picked up their first win of the season after scoring 23 fourth-quarter points to edge the Bengals 39-38. Justin Fields kept his starting role for at least another week, as the Jets are now tied with the Titans and Saints with respective 1-7 records. 
  • Bills are back: The Bills haven’t lost three in a row since Josh Allen’s rookie year and they kept that streak alive with a 40-9 win against the Panthers. James Cook ran for 216 yards and two touchdowns, while Allen punched in two of his own on the ground. 
  • Who can stop the Colts? Jonathan Taylor had his third game with 3+ touchdowns this season as the Colts strengthened their grip on the #1 seed in the AFC. Another stellar game in the books for Daniel Jones, whose 109.5 QBR is fifth in the NFL this season. 
  • No Rodgers revenge: The Packers battled back on Sunday night to oust Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jordan Love threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns before being denied Rodgers’ jersey in the postgame celebrations. 


Now that Week 8 is behind us, it is time to jump into the picks for Week 9. As a reminder, these picks must be locked in immediately, as there is no guarantee these lines and odds will still be available when kickoff rolls around on Sunday. An extra point or two in your favor can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run when picking teams against the spread. 

Game 1: Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals 

Opening Line: Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Both of these teams are coming off damaging losses in Week 8 and will be eager to get back in the win column. However, the Bengals' season is all but over, while the Bears still have a real chance to win the NFC North, or at the very least, sneak into a Wild Card position. Chicago had won four games in a row before falling to the Ravens last week, and they will be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Bengals defense. Caleb Williams has been responsible for the football, and D’Andre Swift has been effective on the ground as Ben Johnson’s schemes are finally taking shape in his first season as the Bears' head coach. They come up against the Bengals' defense that just allowed 39 points against the New York Jets, and there is no reason to expect anything less from the Bears. Making the Jets offense look good is not easy, as New York had scored just 17 points combined in their last two games. The Bengals have previously been able to lean on Joe Burrow’s explosive connection with Ja’Marr Chase to overcome their defensive shortcomings, but that is no longer the case. Joe Flacco is a respectable quarterback, but he isn’t good enough to win a shootout against a strong Bears defense. Chicago is a team with legitimate playoff aspirations, while the Bengals are playing out the season while looking to start fresh next year. This is a crucial pick to lock in immediately, as the current -2.5 point spread and a potential -3.5 point closing spread is a massive difference. Nearly 20% of NFL games finish with exactly a three-point margin of victory, making this one that you cannot afford to wait for. 

Pick: Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Game 2: San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

The New York Giants lost Cam Skattebo to a season-ending injury last week against the Eagles. While Skattebo is a crucial member of the offense, losing his off-field presence is even more devastating for the Giants' slim playoff hopes. Skattebo was the heart and soul of this offense with Jaxson Dart, and it is hard to imagine the Giants keeping it close against a motivated 49ers side. San Francisco is in the thick of the playoff race, has lots of tangible football to play for, and should be larger than a field goal favorite over New York. The 49ers do a great job at spreading the ball among their receivers, and have the 2nd most passing yards in the league this season. Brock Purdy is also expected to get back on the field this week, and while Mac Jones played well in his absence, Purdy is still a clear upgrade over the former Patriots quarterback. San Francisco has the better offense, the better defense, is relatively healthy, and will be the more desperate team to pick up this win. Just as with the Bears spread, this is a crucial number to take before it reaches -3 or higher. 

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Game 3: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Washington got crushed 28-7 by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night, but that scoreline was not an accurate reflection of how the two teams played. Washington’s offense came to life with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back from injury, and would have had more points on the board if it weren’t for a pair of failed fourth-down conversions in the first half. They ended up going into halftime at 7-7, before Patrick Mahomes did what Patrick Mahomes does in the second half. For their upcoming matchup against the Seahawks, Jayden Daniels is also expected to return from injury, which will bring their offense back to full strength. Sam Darnold has played well for Seattle, and I expect a back-and-forth contest in Washington. Seattle is a dangerous team coming off their bye week, but I really like what we saw from the Washington defense last week. If their defense can play average, not great, football, the Washington offense will take care of the rest. Once Daniels is confirmed to play, this spread will likely dip below the crucial field goal number. The Commanders shouldn’t be sizable home underdogs with a healthy offensive unit, and the extra insurance with the spread makes them the way to go. 

Pick: Washington Commanders (+3.5)

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