NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

by Joey House - 9/17/2025

Just two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, and things are getting mildly chaotic. The Cincinnati Bengals are the lone undefeated team in the rugged AFC North but lost their franchise QB Joe Burrow to a toe injury that requires surgery. The best-case prognosis is three months, but ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting it is most likely season-ending. However, backup Jake Browning has starting experience (4-3 in seven starts with Cincy in 2023) and led the Bengals to a 31-27 victory over a surprisingly pesky Jacksonville team. The Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC's representative in five of the last six Super Bowls, have stumbled to a 0-2 record for the first time since 2014, which was head coach Andy Reid's second season in Kansas City. Raise your hand if you had the Indianapolis Colts as the last undefeated team in the AFC South.

We had another solid week, going 11-5 while earning 110 out of the 130 possible points. That makes our running record 21-11 (65.6%) and total points 208-230, which is 80% of the possible points.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points – Buffalo Bills over Miami Dolphins (TNF): Buffalo capitalizes on a balanced attack to overwhelm Miami's coverage. The Bills control the trenches and finish drives efficiently, pulling away with defensive stops in the second half. Miami is just thankful they're playing in the rain showers of September rather than the snow showers of December.

15 points – Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New York Jets: This game is almost a perfect matchup for Tampa Bay, as everything that they do well, the Jets do not. New York is -2 in the turnover battle, while the Buccaneers have not lost or gained a turnover in their first 2 games.

14 points – Washington Commanders over Las Vegas Raiders: Washington's attacking defense, 9th in the league in blitz percentage at 29.1%, should give Las Vegas's passing attack major headaches, as the Raiders' QB Geno Smith has already been sacked 7 times and thrown 3 picks this season while compiling the league's lowest QB rating at 66.0.

13 points – Philadelphia Eagles over Los Angeles Rams: Philadelphia dominates the battle up front, generating pressure and creating opportunities. The Eagles' Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, with their 19 rushing first downs, convert key possessions and tighten defensively to outlast the Rams.

12 points – Seattle Seahawks over New Orleans Saints: Seattle rides physicality to disrupt New Orleans' rhythm. The Seahawks find offensive balance and deliver timely stops to pull ahead in the later quarters.

11 points – Los Angeles Chargers over Denver Broncos: In a battle between the AFC West's up-and-coming QBs, Los Angeles protects the pocket well and exposes Denver's weaknesses in space. The Chargers build a lead with efficient scoring and seal it through clock control.

10 points – Green Bay Packers over Cleveland Browns: Cleveland's organization seems to be a smoldering dumpster fire waiting to erupt. Last week saw the fire intensify with QB Joe Flacco getting benched in the 4th quarter. Green Bay's defense ranks 3rd in the NFL with just 30% of the opposition's drives resulting in an offensive score.

9 points – Kansas City Chiefs over New York Giants (SNF): Kansas City imposes its tempo on the road, mixing plays to keep New York reactive, instead of allowing New York into a rhythm. Patrick Mahomes has never lost 3 consecutive regular-season games in his 8+ seasons with the Chiefs.

8 points – Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis establishes early momentum with effective motion and spacing, strategically targeting Tennessee's defensive zones with the early-season Rookie-of-the-Year candidate, TE Tyler Warren. The Colts' defense has no trouble limiting the NFL's least productive offense, averaging only 192.5 total yards per game.

7 points – Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers: Atlanta soars with aerial acrobatics and bubble screens that turn small gains into house calls against Carolina's soft cushions. The Falcons' interior linemen anchor like fortresses, repelling rushes and allowing methodical marches that bury the Panthers.

6 points – Jacksonville Jaguars over Houston Texans: Jacksonville's defense forces Houston into costly mistakes, adding to its season total of six takeaways. The Jaguars respond with physical runs and extended plays, grinding through a tense, back-and-forth contest that's likely to be decided in the final two minutes.

5 points – Cincinnati Bengals over Minnesota Vikings: In a battle of backup quarterbacks, Cincinnati holds a slight edge with a more experienced option under center. That advantage proves critical in a tightly contested matchup, as the Bengals capitalize on key moments and swing momentum with timely defensive plays. Their secondary anticipates well, jumping routes for deflections and interceptions that help seal a low-scoring Bengals victory.

4 points – Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco: Arizona continues to demonstrate its formidable prowess in Santa Clara, boasting an impressive record of 7-3 straight up in its last 10 regular-season visits. The Cardinals excel at stifling San Francisco's offense, and the world is reminded that Mac Jones' last game was just an outlier performance.

3 points – Dallas Cowboys over Chicago Bears: Dallas's developing rushing attack enables quarterback Dak Prescott to connect with wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on deep play-action passes. Additionally, Dallas boasts one of the best long-distance kickers in the game, providing the offense with a strong opportunity to score at least three points from the 50-yard line and closer.

2 points – Baltimore Ravens over Detroit Lions (MNF): Baltimore ravages with a blitz-heavy onslaught, overwhelming Detroit's protection and creating chaos in the backfield. Detroit is thankful they don't travel to B-More very often, as they are 0-5 SU/ 1-4 ATS in their last 5 visits over the past 40 seasons.

1 point – Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots: Steelers' fans are in for a real treat each week, wondering which version of ancient QB Aaron Rodgers they are going to see. New England, however, does have the worst pass defense through the first 2 games (315 ypg), so he could have a big day.

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Start:	September 17, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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