NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 4

Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season proved that the NFL is the craziest sports league in the world. For the first time since 1991, there were 4 blocked field goals in a single day. Even more remarkable is that all of these blocks occurred within a one-hour window in the fourth quarter of the 1:00 p.m. games. I offer my condolences to all Los Angeles Rams backers on Sunday. As a lifelong Eagles fan, I was ecstatic with the outcome. And while I didn't have any individual wagers on the game, I have empathy for one of the worst bad beats I've ever witnessed.

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There is a commonly used phrase in sports that goes "I'd rather be lucky than good." Although the exact origin of the phrase is a mystery, the NY Yankees pitching ace from the 30's, Vernon "Lefty" Gomez, is widely credited for using it first. Week 3's Confidence Pool article experienced both ends of that statement, as we went 10-6 for 105 points. Even though we didn't need the touchdown that resulted from the blocked field goal in the Rams-Eagles game, we did need the block to secure our 13-point game. Our 15-point game was in serious jeopardy when the NY Jets blocked Tampa Bay's 43-yard field goal and returned it for a 50-yard touchdown less than an hour later. Fortunately for Bucs' fans (and us), there was still 1:49 left in the game, and Bucs' QB Baker Mayfield led Tampa down the field for another field goal attempt, this one good from 36 yards. We lost our 10-point game when the Browns blocked the Packers' go-ahead field goal attempt with 27 seconds left, recovered it at their own 47-yard line, and drove 16 yards to kick their own 55-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. So, we ended up with a gain of 18 points from mayhem.

16 points – Buffalo Bills over New Orleans Saints: Buffalo keeps building steam with a dominant all-around effort, exploiting New Orleans' vulnerabilities in coverage and on the ground. The Bills' offense operates like clockwork, converting third downs and capping drives with scores, while their defense clamps down after halftime to extend the margin.

15 points – Detroit Lions over Cleveland Browns: Sitting at 1-2, Detroit treats this as a pivotal bounce-back opportunity at home, unleashing their potent rushing attack against Cleveland's leaky front. The Lions generate big plays through the air and force turnovers to force a much-needed win.

14 points – Denver Broncos over Cincinnati Bengals (MNF): Cincinnati, reeling from a heartbreaking defeat, faces a tough turnaround on the road in the thin air of Mile High. Denver capitalizes with a stout defense that pressures the Bengals' line, while their offense finds rhythm in key spots to secure a gritty prime-time victory.

13 points – Los Angeles Chargers over New York Giants: Los Angeles travels east with confidence, using Justin Herbert's precision to dissect New York's secondary. The Chargers' defensive front disrupts the Giants' rhythm early, leading to short fields and efficient scoring drives that build an insurmountable lead.

12 points – Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals: Seattle has owned this NFC West rivalry on the road lately, posting wins in seven of their past eight trips to the desert. The Seahawks lean on physical play up front to control the line of scrimmage, mixing runs and passes to outpace Arizona in a divisional showdown.

11 points – Houston Texans over Tennessee Titans: Tennessee enters on a dismal skid, dropping nine straight contests since last season, which Houston exploits with their emerging talent on both sides. The Texans force errors from the Titans' offense and respond with explosive plays, pulling away comfortably at home.

10 points – Philadelphia Eagles over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Philadelphia thrives in the early season, boasting an 11-2 straight-up mark in their last 13 September outings. The Eagles' dynamic backfield duo overwhelms Tampa's front, while their pass rush creates havoc, leading to a controlled road triumph.

9 points – Pittsburgh Steelers over Minnesota Vikings: In Dublin's electric atmosphere, Pittsburgh's veteran poise travels well, as their elite defense stifles Minnesota's rushing attack and forces the Vikings into one-dimensional passing, which has been significantly reduced due to the injury of the Vikings' starting QB, J.J. McCarthy.

8 points – San Francisco 49ers over Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville struggles mightily away from home, managing just one victory in their last 13 road tilts. San Francisco takes full advantage, dominating in the trenches and unleashing a balanced attack that keeps the Jaguars' defense off-balance throughout.

7 points – Los Angeles Rams over Indianapolis Colts: Coming off a brutal setback, Los Angeles channels frustration into a strong rebound, holding an impressive 11-1 record in their recent dozen matchups against AFC South foes. The Rams' aerial assault targets Indy's coverage gaps, complemented by timely stops to seal the deal.

6 points – Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys: Green Bay heads south with momentum, leveraging Jordan Love's arm to connect on deep threats against Dallas's secondary. The Packers' defense steps up in key moments, containing the Cowboys' stars and turning the game with opportunistic plays in a marquee NFC battle.

5 points – Miami Dolphins over New York Jets: Miami harnesses its speed advantage in this AFC East rivalry, turning quick screens and slants into chunk gains against New York's coverage. The Dolphins' front disrupts the Jets' pocket, leading to hurried throws and a turnover edge that tips the scales in their favor at home.

4 points – Chicago Bears over Las Vegas Raiders: Chicago brings emerging confidence to the desert, with Caleb Williams distributing the ball efficiently to exploit Las Vegas's pass defense woes. The Bears' ground game controls the tempo, while their secondary jumps routes for deflections that help secure a road upset.

3 points – Kansas City Chiefs over Baltimore Ravens: Kansas City asserts dominance in this rematch of heavyweights, with Patrick Mahomes orchestrating precise drives to keep Baltimore's aggressive front guessing. The Chiefs' defense bends but rarely breaks, forcing field goals and clinching with late-game heroics.

2 points – Atlanta Falcons over Washington Commanders: Atlanta takes flight at home, using creative play-calling and motion to create mismatches against Washington's young unit. Keep an eye on the status of Commanders' QB Jayden Daniels. If he plays, this game becomes a much closer contest.

1 point – Carolina Panthers over New England Patriots: Carolina scrapes together a road win in a low-wattage affair, capitalizing on New England's rebuilding pains with a balanced approach. The Panthers' defense generates pressure and limits big plays, while their offense does just enough to edge out the Patriots in the closing minutes.

YTD Record

Wk 1: 10-6 95 points

Wk 2: 11-5 110 points

Wk 3: 10-6 105 points

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