NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5

by Joey House - 10/1/2025

After last week's zany conclusions to the 1 o'clock games, Week 4's two blocked field goals seemed tame in comparison. Philadelphia did its part in bringing excitement to the slate by blocking Tampa Bay's first punt and taking it to the house for a touchdown, marking the second consecutive week their special teams blocked a kick and returned it for a touchdown.

The first blocked field goal occurred in the Minnesota-Pittsburgh game in Ireland, and it didn't factor into the outcome, as the Steelers were the first to have it blocked; yet, they still won the game. The second block, however, played a very significant role in the Raiders' home loss to the Bears. After the Bears took a 25-24 lead on D'Andre Swift's touchdown with 1:38 left in the game, Oakland was set up with excellent field position at the Las Vegas 42-yard line following the ensuing kickoff. With 38 seconds left, the Raiders' kicker, Daniel Carlson, trotted out for a relatively easy 54-yarder. The Bears' CB Josh Blackwell, however, donned his Superman cape, coming in from the right-hand side of the kicker and flying through the air to disrupt the kick's trajectory.

We had our best week of the young season, as our Week 4 picks went 13-2-1, courtesy of the 40-40 tie Sunday night between Green Bay and Dallas, the highest-scoring deadlock in NFL history. If you are in a season-long Confidence league, make sure you inquire how they handle ties. Oftentimes, they count both sides as a win and give each team's backers the points assigned to that game. Doing that gives us a 14-2 mark with 115 out of the possible 130.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

WEEK 5 GAMES

14 points. Detroit Lions over Cincinnati Bengals: Jared Goff showcases his pocket poise, carving up a Cincinnati defense that's surrendered a league-worst 8.2 yards per pass attempt. At the same time, Detroit's relentless downfield attack turns a potential slugfest into a road rout. With Joe Burrow sidelined, Jake Browning fails to generate consistent offense against the Lions' swarming front, unable to keep pace as Detroit lights up the scoreboard with precision and pressure.

13 points. Buffalo Bills over New England Patriots (SNF): Josh Allen dominates from start to finish, steamrolling a New England front seven that's given up over 150 rushing yards in back-to-back games, while Buffalo's opportunistic secondary snags errant throws to seal a Sunday showcase that feels more like a demolition derby than a competitive clash. The Bills are 13-0 SU in their last baker's dozen home games.

12 points. Los Angeles Chargers over Washington Commanders: Justin Herbert turns into a gridiron surgeon, slicing through Washington's chaos with the Commanders forced to start Marcus Mariota since Jayden Daniels is out, as the Chargers' pass rush cranks up the pressure cooker for a wire-to-wire thrashing. The Chargers have owned the NFC East, going 14-5 over their last 19 meetings.

11 points. Philadelphia Eagles over Denver Broncos: Saquon Barkley is starting to get on track and should gash a Denver defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry, which ranks 16th in the league. Jalen Hurts has yet to throw an interception this season, and the Broncos don't generate many turnovers, with a -2 takeaway ratio that ranks 21st in the NFL.

10 points. Arizona Cardinals over Tennessee Titans: Kyler Murray flips the script with his video-game jukes, exploiting a Titans team that has lost their last 10 consecutive games, and powers Arizona to a home romp where speed overwhelms and Tennessee's troubles stack up like unpaid bills.

9 points. Indianapolis Colts over Las Vegas Raiders: Daniel Jones unleashes his dual-threat magic, scrambling and slinging against a Raiders squad that's lost four straight to AFC South opponents. At the same time, Indianapolis capitalizes on turnovers with a defense that fuels a sneaky upset in the desert.

8 points. Kansas City Chiefs over Jacksonville Jaguars (MNF): Patrick Mahomes pulls rabbits out of hats in prime time, baffling a Jacksonville crew 1-6 SU in their last seven Monday nighters, with KC's defense dropping hammers on key drives to turn this into a Chiefs clinic under the lights.

7 points. Los Angeles Rams over San Francisco 49ers (TNF): Sean McVay plays chess while others play checkers, dialing up schemes that have produced an average of 3.5 sacks per game, which is tied with two other teams for second-best sack rate in the league.

6 points. Miami Dolphins over Carolina Panthers: This might be the worst game to watch on Sunday. Miami defeated the New York Jets on Monday to notch its first win of the season. Unfortunately, they lost their star playmaker, Tyreek Hill, for the season and possibly his career. The Fins did get TE Darren Waller back, and he hauled in 3 catches for 27 yards and 2 touchdowns.

5 points. New York Jets over Dallas Cowboys: Justin Fields rediscovers his dynamic flair, picking apart Dallas's secondary like a puzzle he solved on the fly, with the Jets' edge rushers notching a league-high 15 sacks so far, unleashing chaos to flip this into a gritty Big Apple upset.

4 points. Cleveland Browns over Minnesota Vikings (London): Deshaun Watson shakes off the rust overseas, torching a Vikings unit crippled with J.J. McCarthy out and forced to rely on a shaky backup, as Cleveland's run game grinds out the clock in a foggy, fog-of-war triumph across the pond.

3 points. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Seattle Seahawks: Baker Mayfield struts his stuff with gunslinger guts, zipping lasers through Seattle's rain-soaked dreams, while Tampa's D-line, boasting a 4-1 ATS record at home lately, unleashes a torrent of takedowns in a pirate-plundering party.

2 points. Baltimore Ravens over Houston Texans: Derrick Henry turns lethal with thunderous runs even with Lamar Jackson out, and backup QB Cooper Rush has starting experience, as he spent 7 seasons in Dallas. He torched the Texans' secondary last year for 354 yards and a touchdown with an interception in a 34-10 loss with the Cowboys.

1 point. New Orleans Saints over New York Giants: I may have spoken too soon when I said the Dolphins-Panthers game would be the worst. These two teams will give them a run for their money. Giants' QB Russell Wilson still throws a beautiful deep ball, but lost the franchise WR Malik Nabers last week with a torn ACL. The Saints' offense ranks 28th in scoring with 16.5 ppg. The Giants are ranked one place higher with 18.3. points per game.

YTD Record

Wk 1: 10-6 95 points

Wk 2: 11-5 110 points

Wk 3: 10-6 105 points

Wk 4: 14-2 115 points

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Start:	October 1, 2025 @ 6:10 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5

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