NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8

The 2025 NFL season has taken on a familiar shape, with the Patriots and Colts reclaiming top spots in their divisions and reviving echoes of their early-2000s dominance. New England has surged behind a revitalized defense and steady quarterback play, while Indianapolis has leaned on a balanced attack and a resurgent ground game to control the AFC South. Both teams have benefited from divisional inconsistency and timely execution, creating a landscape that feels more like a throwback than a transition year. For fans who remember the Brady-Manning era, the standings offer a nostalgic reminder of when these franchises routinely set the pace.
Week 7 was a stellar week for Doc's Confidence Pool, as we went 12-3, scoring 106 points out of 120 possible. It wasn't always easy (I'm looking at you, Denver), but then again, it rarely ever is. Washington and Carolina proved that they are not to be trusted. The LA Rams proved that while Pacu Nacau is an excellent weapon, they are not just a one-trick pony.
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13 – Indianapolis vs. Tennessee: Indianapolis leads the league in offensive efficiency and ranks ninth in scoring defense. Tennessee ranks last in offense and fourth from the bottom in defense, paving the way for a dominant performance. Winner: Indianapolis
12 – Kansas City vs. Washington (MNF): Kansas City has won 10 of 11 all-time matchups against Washington. The Chiefs rank second in offensive metrics, with a 0.16 EPA per play and a 49.12% success rate. Washington has historically struggled against KC, going 1-10. Winner: Kansas City
11 – LA Chargers vs. Minnesota (TNF): The Chargers hold a 7-8 edge in the all-time series against the Vikings. Los Angeles ranks high in defensive sack percentage, while Minnesota has a 3-3 record with vulnerabilities in pass protection. The Chargers' balanced attack gives them the advantage. Winner: LA Chargers
10 –Philadelphia vs. NY Giants: Philadelphia has won 15 of the last 20 games against the Giants. The Eagles rank strongly in rushing offense at 176 yards per game in recent outings, exploiting New York's 2-5 record and defensive weaknesses, allowing over 20 points per game. Winner: Philadelphia
09 – Denver vs. Dallas: Denver owns a 9-5 all-time record against Dallas, including playoffs. The Broncos rank well in defensive yards allowed, while the Cowboys sit at 3-3 with inconsistencies in run defense, conceding 135 yards per game on average. Winner: Denver
08 –New England vs. Cleveland: New England edges the all-time series 14-13 against Cleveland. The Patriots have a 5-0 home record against the Browns at Gillette Stadium, bolstered by a defense ranking in the top 10 for points allowed at 20.5 per game. Winner: New England
07 – Green Bay @ Pittsburgh (SNF): The only thing that would have made this matchup even better is Rodgers returning to Lambeau Field. Green Bay leads the series 20-17 against Pittsburgh. The Packers rank third in offensive efficiency with a 0.15 EPA per play, while the Steelers' 4-2 record shows vulnerabilities against top NFC opponents. Winner: Green Bay
06 – Buffalo @ Carolina: Buffalo has won 6 of 8 meetings against Carolina. The Bills excel in scoring offense, averaging 28 points per game, taking advantage of the Panthers' 1-5 record and defense allowing 26.3 points per contest. Winner: Buffalo
05 –Atlanta vs. Miami: Atlanta trails the series 5-9 but has momentum with a strong passing game. The Falcons' offense averages 226 total yards in recent games, while Miami's 2-4 record highlights struggles in road matchups. Winner: Atlanta
04 – San Francisco @ Houston: San Francisco dominates the series 4-1 against Houston. The 49ers rank high in win probability metrics, with a 59% chance in simulations, exploiting the Texans' 2-3 record and pass defense issues. Winner: San Francisco
03 – New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay: New Orleans leads the all-time series 40-27 against Tampa Bay. Despite recent losses, the Saints' home advantage and turnover differential give them an edge over the Buccaneers' 10-7 record. Winner: New Orleans
02 – Cincinnati vs. NY Jets: Cincinnati trails the series 11-18 but has won recent home games. The Bengals' offense ranks well in passing yards, while the Jets sit at 0-6 with a defense allowing over 24 points per game. Winner: Cincinnati
01 – Baltimore vs. Chicago: Baltimore trails the series 3-4 but has a 63.2% win probability in our models. The Ravens' rushing attack leads the league, overpowering the Bears' 4-2 record with a defense ranked 16th in pass yards allowed. Winner: Baltimore
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