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2026 Houston Texans Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/19/2026

Houston Texans predictions Will Anderson

The Houston Texans have strung together three straight seasons with double-digit wins since drafting C.J. Stroud, and everything is pointing towards another strong season. Their defense is among the best in the league, but there are still serious questions on offense. Houston limped out of the playoffs with a lifeless performance against the Patriots, but there is growing optimism that they have found answers on both sides of the ball this year. Can the Texans offense match a dominant defense, or will it be another season lacking complementary football in Houston?

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Houston Texans Offseason Recap

The Houston Texans’ offense needed a dramatic overhaul this offseason, and they took steps in the right direction with their moves. They kicked things off early with a pre-draft trade for David Montgomery from the Detroit Lions, which led to the release of Joe Mixon. Montgomery formed a lethal backfield tandem with Jahmyr Gibbs last season, and appears to be in line for the RB1 role in Houston this year. His ability to convert in short yardage with runs up the middle is unique, as his combination of speed and power is rarely seen. Houston’s run game was 22nd in the league last season despite positive game scripts, and Montgomery will be hoping he can be the missing piece. 

While the running back is important, the biggest overhaul for Houston came on their offensive line. Last season, the Texans were dead last in offensive line rankings with the worst run block win rate and the third-worst pass block win rate. The front office knew they needed to make dramatic changes to keep C.J. Stroud upright, and they did exactly that. At left guard, the Texans brought in Wyatt Teller to a two-year deal, bringing Pro Bowl experience to the interior of their line. They also scooped up Braden Smith in free agency to start at right tackle, and drafted Keylan Rutledge in the first round to start at center. Three new linemen combined with added depth will make this unit competent, and any upgrade compared to last year will go a long way. 

On defense, the Texans didn’t have to change much as they were truly dominant on that side of the ball. They signed Reed Blankenship to start at safety, but their other ten starters will remain the same as last year. Logan Hall and Dominique Robinson will give them veteran depth up front, while rookie Kayden McDonald has been turning heads at training camp. If one or two more pass rushers can elevate their game, this could be the best defense in the league. 

Houston Texans Season Expectations

The Texans have strung together three straight 10+ win seasons since going 3-13-1 in 2022, and have -130 odds to do so again this season. C.J. Stroud overcame a sophomore slump after winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in his debut campaign, and is comfortably carrying the keys to this franchise. The Texans offense has been truly abysmal over the last year and a half, but it hasn’t been Stroud's fault. Any young quarterback would struggle behind the line in Houston, and it is not as if their other skill positions are bursting with talent. He lost top target Tank Dell to injury in each of the last two seasons, and had very little support in the run game. However, even a middle-of-the-pack offense could be enough to lift the Texans to a deep playoff run with what they have on the other side of the ball. 

On defense, this is one of the best, if not the best, units in the league. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter anchor a truly terrifying pass rush that is the heartbeat of this defense. Anderson Jr. racked up 12 sacks while Hunter logged 15, giving Houston two pass rushers for opponents to deal with. Teams can’t afford to double-team both men, which allows whoever has the one-on-one matchup to thrive. Both players also forced three fumbles each, as these two don’t just hunt down the quarterback, but they are always aiming at the football. 

As a unit, the Texans allowed the fewest yards per game league-wide, the fewest first downs, and the second-fewest points. Their secondary was always in control, their pass rush made things difficult, and the middle of the field was rarely exposed. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it; as the Texans did an excellent job of keeping their defense intact. 

2026 Houston Texans NFL Schedule Breakdown

The Houston Texans are in the middle of a very winnable AFC South featuring the Jaguars, Titans, and Colts. However, they have a much tougher schedule than was initially thought. Based on last year’s standings, the Texans have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL, but have the seventh-hardest based on the 2026 projected win totals. Houston finished second in the division last year, which earns them three matchups against other second-place teams: the Bills, Packers, and Chargers. Not easy. Once you add in that they have to go through the always tough NFC East and AFC North, it is no surprise to see them with a difficult schedule.

They open up the year with three of their first four at home, but hosting the Bills, Bengals, and Cowboys is far from an easy trio of games. They then head to Europe to take on the Jaguars in Week 6 before claiming a relatively early bye week in Week 8. To close out the season, the Texans play four of their final six on the road, taking trips to Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Green Bay. They’ll have the Titans (2x), Giants, and Browns circled on the calendar as winnable matchups, but there isn’t much else to look forward to from a Houston point of view. 

2026 Houston Texans Odds

The Texans have finished with 10, 10, and 12 wins in the last three years, and are expected to do so again with a 9.5-win total with -130 odds on the over. Ten wins is usually enough to make the playoffs, and they might need even fewer with a relatively weak division. They have +110 odds to get back on top of the AFC South, and -200 odds to make the playoffs. 

In terms of awards, Will Anderson is the most likely Texan to get his hands on silverware with +700 odds to win Defensive Player of the Year. That trails only Myles Garrett, but he will also have to compete against fellow Houston pass rusher Danielle Hunter with +2500 odds. For MVP, C.J. Stroud is down at +5000 with the likes of Jaxson Dart, Kyler Murray, and Cam Ward. A clear longshot. 

If Houston makes the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season, they have the fourth-lowest AFC odds with +750 to win the conference, and +1700 odds to win the Super Bowl. 

2026 Houston Texans Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Houston Texans are expected to be an AFC contender, but they lack the offensive punch to get them over the line. I know defense wins championships, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston win it all on the back of their front seven, but I still can’t buy them at odds like these. That AFC divisional round playoff game against the Patriots last season is still etched in my mind, and it will take a few strong showings from Stroud and company to erase that memory. There are reasons to get excited on defense, but I don’t see quite enough to buy on their relatively low Super Bowl odds. 

We have to get creative with how to attack the Texans. Their 9.5 win total is certainly tempting, but it is unjustifiable that they have -130 odds to have 10+ wins, but steep -200 odds to make the playoffs. Unless the entire AFC South sucks and a losing record wins the division, I do not agree with these odds. I expect Houston to finish 9-8 or 10-7 this season, right in line with their win total, but am not convinced they make the playoffs 66% of the time. Their schedule has several tough stretches, and I am a buyer on them to miss at +160. 

Top Pick: Houston Texans to Miss the Playoffs +160

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