2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 7
So much for home field advantage.
Home field advantage is a myth as old as pro football itself. But year by year that myth continues to get busted. And playing in front of the home faithful this season has been practically worthless.
Home teams in the NFL this season have won barely half of their games, posting a 47-45-1 straight up mark so far. They’ve been even worse at the window, going 22-34 against the spread – an anemic 39.3 percent success rate.
That means that road underdogs have been one of the most successful subgroups so far this season, covering over 60 percent of their attempts. The most profitable subgroup: road favorites. Teams laying points away from home are 23-14 (62.2%) this season.
What was that about the value of home underdogs?
Further, big underdogs have been cleaning up all season long. Teams catching five or more points have gone 20-9 (69%) ATS this season with a slew of outright upsets. In fact, that subgroup went 4-1 ATS last week alone with Arizona and Tennessee taking the straight up W’s.
Finally, primetime underdogs are now 9-0 ATS.
These trends aren’t going to continue for the entire NFL campaign. But at this point they have all proven themselves as great starting points for your weekly handicapping.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here are my Week 7 NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (6-0) — San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite and 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The 49ers are favored at Atlanta this week despite being at a travel disadvantage and coming off an unimpressive Monday Night Football win. “Win on Monday…”
2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) — Kansas City is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog when Patrick Mahomes starts. That includes an impressive 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog. The Chiefs have also held three of five opponents to 10 points or fewer.
3. Buffalo Bills (5-1) — It’s an early season bye week for the Bills after their two-week West Coast sojourn.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-0) — The Vikings should welcome back Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw this week coming out of the bye. Kevin O’Connell is just 1-3 ATS in this last four games after a week of rest.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) — The Jaguars are now 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in London. Trevor Lawrence’s overall turnover numbers are on pace to be one of the lowest of his career. However, it feels like every time Lawrence does turn the ball over it is in the red zone, near the goal line, or in some way directly taking points off the board for the Jaguars
6. Denver Broncos (4-2) — Playing on Thursday night has not been a long-term benefit for teams. I always hear people talking about “extra time to prepare” for the Thursday night teams. But that’s never really the case. That said, teams off a Thursday night game this season have gone 7-3 SU and ATS so far this season.
7. Seattle Seahawks (3-3) — I’m really not going to rag on Sam Darnold for those two interceptions against Denver. Darnold really did play very well considering that he had absolutely no help from the running game (again) and that he was facing a nearly flawless Broncos defense.
8. New England Patriots (4-2) — If A.J. Brown’s hands worked then that Jets game might have been a first half knockout for the Patriots. New England is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS after a ‘push’ or an ATS loss.
9. Chicago Bears (4-2) — Penalties were the only thing that kept that game with the Falcons close. The Bears had 12 penalties for 133 yards on Sunday, which accounts for over 25 percent of their total penalties this season. Beyond that, it was total domination for Chicago (again) with Caleb Williams back under center.
10. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) — Three delay of game penalties, another Derrick Henry fumble, and more missed field goals sunk Baltimore on Sunday. There is no way they should’ve lost at Cleveland last week. The Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Bengals.
11. Los Angeles Rams (2-4) — Davante Adams is going to miss the next 6-10 weeks, which is going to make L.A.’s offense even more dependent on Puka Nacua than it already is. Nacua has notched a ridiculous 43 targets over his last three games. That is 31 percent of all passes thrown over that span. If Nacua gets injured again – he missed Week 2 and Week 3 this season – then this offense is in serious trouble.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) — Cincinnati is coming out of a bye week. But do you really think that giving Zac Taylor extra time to prep is going to give the Bengals some kind of advantage? Me neither. Taylor is 3-4 SU out of a bye and just 1-4 after a week off when he comes back to face a divisional opponent. Joe Burrow is just 4-7 SU in his regular season career against the Ravens.
13. Detroit Lions (3-2) — The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven Green Bay–Detroit meetings. The Lions got swept by the Packers last season but are 6-3 SU in their last nine games against Green Bay. The favorite is just 3-6 ATS in this series.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) — The Steelers have gone ‘over’ in four straight games and their offense has been picking up steam. Pittsburgh is averaging 28.5 points per game over that spell. More troubling is the fact that they have only held one of their last five opponents below 20 points. So much for that dominant Steelers defense.
15. Carolina Panthers (3-2) — Carolina has been a punching bag in its series with Tampa Bay. The Panthers are 2-8 SU in the last 10 meetings and this Sunday is the first time this decade that the Panthers will dress up as the favorite in this matchup.
16. Green Bay Packers (4-2) — Anyone that has read these Power Rankings over the years knows that I am a huge fan of Jordan Love. I think that guy is awesome. I still think this Packers roster has severe limitations. But Love is a hero. And when he’s spinning the ball like he has over the last two weeks – putting it seemingly wherever he wants – this offense is nearly impossible to stop. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
17. Houston Texans (2-4) — It is surprising that the Texans are this strong of a favorite this week against the Giants. Houston is off back-to-back emotional divisional games and they had a rough travel schedule, playing in Nashville and then London before coming home for this game. Don’t be surprised if they get off to a slow start. Houston went 4-1 SU against NFC opponents last year.
18. Atlanta Falcons (2-4) — The Falcons have a clear situational advantage this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has to come across the country, on a short week, and play a 10 a.m. PST kickoff. Atlanta is also playing with revenge after a 20-10 loss at San Francisco last season as a 1.5-point road favorite.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) — Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Vegas has two losses, to Buffalo and Kansas City, by just three points apiece and they are definitely a live dog this week at home against the reeling Rams. Vegas has gone ‘over’ in four straight and its defense has been torched for 33.8 PPG over those four games.
20. New Orleans Saints (2-4) — I don’t know who would be more embarrassed by an interruption of this week’s Steelers-Saints game in Paris, the NFL or the French? There are riots and civil unrest in France right now and some Saints players have voiced fears about their safety. The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
21. Dallas Cowboys (2-4) — Behind the Rams and Chargers, the Cowboys have to be the third-largest disappointment in the NFL this year.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) — The home team is 15-5 SU in the last 20 games between the Cowboys and Eagles.
23. Indianapolis Colts (2-4) — The Colts and Vikings don’t face off very often. But Indianapolis has had the upper hand in this series, going 5-1 ATS against Minnesota dating back to 2008. The Colts’ one loss came in the most recent meeting, 21-13 back in 2024.
24. New York Giants (3-2-1) — The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Houston. New York visits the Texans as an underdog this week. Through six weeks, Giants has converted 35 of 84 third downs (41.7%). The offense has also converted 4 of 6 fourth-down attempts (66.7%).
25. Washington Commanders (1-4-1) — Dan Quinn absolutely did not know that it was fourth down early in the game. I texted out right after it happened that you could read his lips and see him admit he didn’t know it was fourth down. Quinn does not get the benefit of the doubt. Neither should Daniels, who inexplicably threw the ball away on that fourth down instead of just throwing it up for grabs in the end zone. That clueless coach-quarterback duo are perfect for one another.
26. Arizona Cardinals (2-4) — The Cardinals are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games after a win. Arizona has lost each of its two home games by 24 points apiece and their last six home losses have come by an average of 17.5 points per game.
27. Cleveland Browns (4-2) — Cleveland’s four wins this season have come by a combined 13 points, with their last three all coming by exactly three points. The Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. However, this is the first time they will be posted as a favorite since last November. The Browns are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) — The Bucs have had a rugged schedule to start the season. All five of their losses have come against teams with winning records. They face another one this week. Tampa Bay is just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games. Four of their last five games at Carolina have gone ‘under’.
29. Los Angeles Chargers (0-6) — Forget 0-6: that’s actually nine straight losses both SU and ATS for the Chargers. They have a bye this week and next week get to face the equally disappointing Rams.
30. New York Jets (2-3) — The Jets are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. They won their only game laying points this year, but that was a fluke win over Cleveland that was aided by a major special teams gaffe late.
31. Tennessee Titans (1-5) — The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Cleveland–Tennessee meetings. Tennessee went to Cleveland last December and took a 31-17 lead midway through the fourth quarter. Cleveland scored two touchdowns but botched a pair of two-point conversions. Tennessee held on for a 31-29 victory.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-5) — Miami has dominated the Jets. They are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and have won their last three games in New York. Miami is coming out of a bye and should be ready to throw its best punch at the Jets this week.
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