2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 4
Basically, NFL rookies should never open their first season as their team’s starter.
Staring NFL rookie quarterbacks has always been a terrible idea and this is something I have railed against for YEARS.
In fact, I did a four-part video series breaking down why NFL teams should never start rookie quarterbacks, I debunked the four terrible excuses NFL teams give for starting rookies, and I have laid out a perfect blueprint for NFL quarterback development.
The fourth part was about how, despite all evidence, mainstream media bobbleheads still just don’t get it when it comes to sitting NFL rookie quarterbacks.
But just look at the Raiders this year. This is how it is supposed to be done! You draft a kid like Fernando Mendoza that has the potential to be a franchise quarterback. But instead of just throwing him to the wolves, smart coaches and franchises protect him behind a veteran signal caller.
Now the Raiders are getting the dual benefit of 1) they are much more competitive in the short term with a seasoned veteran quarterback and 2) they are better off in the long term because their rookie gets to sit back, watch and learn what quarterbacking at this level is supposed to look like.
For two years I have been telling anyone that would listen that Klint Kubiak is the real deal and is the next great young NFL coach. His success in New Orleans and Seattle was enough to show me that this guy knows what he’s doing. But how he is (correctly) handling his quarterbacks in Las Vegas – despite all the clamoring to start Mendoza – shows me that Kubiak has wisdom beyond his years and is going to be successful at this level for a long time.
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Here are my Week 4 NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (3-0) — It’s nearly impossible to turn the ball over five times and win an NFL game. Kudos. But the Bills have also committed 25 penalties in their three games. Add that to the turnover issues and this looks like a sloppy, undisciplined group. Also, I know the Bills are probably getting dragged for the Nickel City uniforms – because that’s the society we live in now; everyone gets dragged for doing anything new – but I thought they were cool as hell.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) — Kansas City let Miami hang around a lot longer than they should’ve last week. I can’t believe the Chiefs got ahead of that number for a rare cover as a favorite for Kansas City. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and are just 4-9 ATS as a divisional road favorite.
3. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) — Brock Purdy’s best play last week may have been an incompletion. Forced to the sideline by the Arizona pass rush, Purdy ran out of room and did a jump pass while falling out of bounds. He threw an absolute laser – in mid-air – about 15 yards down the field that his receiver dropped. I heard a Purdy-Drew Brees comparison this week and I’m starting to think there might be something there. San Francisco is 2-12 ATS over the last three years against elite defenses allowing 19 or fewer points per game.
4. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) — For those that don’t believe in the West Coast-team-playing-East Coast handicapping angle, I present last week’s Seattle-Washington game as the latest exhibit. Look, it isn’t a blind play every time a West Coast team crosses the Mississippi. But that travel is absolutely a factor and was part of the reason the Seahawks came out flat last Sunday.
5. Los Angeles Rams (1-2) — Los Angeles has a revenge angle this week after their stunning loss at Philadelphia last season. That was the game where Jordan Davis blocked L.A.’s potential game winning field goal and ran it back 61 yards for a touchdown. That wild play actually covered the spread for the Eagles in that game and sunk the Rams to just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 matchups with Philadelphia.
6. Denver Broncos (2-1) — As soon as the score got to 16-0 Sunday night I turned to my buddy and said, “Denver is definitely winning this game.” Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC opponents. Denver is just 11-19 ATS in its last 30 primetime games.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) — This Jaguars-Bengals game is low-key one of the best NFL matchups of the week. These two teams played a wild one last September, with Jake Browning coming off the bench to replace an injured Joe Burrow and leading the Bengals to a 31-27 win. The Jaguars have lost four straight to the Bengals since 2020. Jacksonville is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 road games. But three of those losses featured blown double-digit leads.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) — Cincinnati has covered each of its last four meetings with Jacksonville, and Joe Burrow is 3-0 ATS in his career against the Jaguars. Also, it is insane how bad this defense has been against tight ends. Dating back to the start of last season, Cincinnati has allowed opposing tight ends 139 receptions, 1,744 yards and 16 touchdowns in 20 games.
9. Chicago Bears (2-1) — Anyone that didn’t know that Case Keenum can sling it hasn’t been watching football over the last 15 years. Monday’s biggest surprise wasn’t Keenum – it was the Chicago defense. Dennis Allen did a great job mixing up his blitzes and confusing the Eagles offense. Chicago has only allowed 16 points in its last two games and should be able to hold up against a mediocre Jets attack.
10. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) — I just don’t know if the Ravens are good enough defensively to cover these double-digit spreads. Baltimore has allowed 23 or more points in six straight games and in eight of their last nine. Throw out a December shutout of Jake Browning and the Bengals and the Ravens have allowed an average of 26.9 points per game over their last eight.
11. Minnesota Vikings (3-0) — Keep an eye on Justin Jefferson’s status this week against Miami. Jefferson left after one series last week and is dealing with an ankle injury. Kyler Murray was a massive upgrade in the passing game and I’m bullish on this offense making strides over the next month. Will the Vikings defense be exhausted this week? Do they have enough in the tank after three excellent efforts to shut down the Dolphins?
12. New England Patriots (1-2) — The last six meetings in the Buffalo-New England series have all been decided by a touchdown or less. The teams have split those six games with the average margin of victory just 4.5 points per game.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) — Nick Sirianni deserves all the criticism that he is getting for that pathetic effort on Monday Night Football. Sirianni has coached in 98 NFL games, 88 in the regular season and 10 in the playoffs. How can someone that has been involved in that many games still have absolutely zero understanding of situational football?
14. Detroit Lions (2-1) — Detroit is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 6.5 points and they are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games. The Lions defense has all kinds of issues right now. But their terrible defense against tight ends is one of them. The Lions have allowed 29 receptions, 351 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends through three games this year.
15. Dallas Cowboys (1-2) — What do you say? I mean, they are the Cowboys! They are losers! It is unfathomable to me that after Buffalo’s notorious 13 Seconds Game that anyone would make the mistake of not making teams burn the final few seconds in regulation by returning the kickoff. The Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and I don’t know how they pick themselves up off the mat after that failure in Brazil.
16. Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) — Kirko Chainz is slinging it! The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five Raiders-Chiefs games and Vegas has won two of the last five meetings outright. The Raiders only have one win over the Chiefs in Vegas, though, and that was in Week 18 last season when the Chiefs were mailing it in. Las Vegas’ other home losses to the Chiefs have come by 27, 18, 14 and 7 points.
17. New Orleans Saints (1-2) — The home team in the Saints-Falcons series has won five of the last six meetings and is 7-3 SU in the last 10. New Orleans is 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games but they have been mediocre on Monday Night Football, going just 4-6 SU and ATS in their last 10 games under the bright lights.
18. Houston Texans (0-3) — C.J. Stroud had another good game on Sunday – he just didn’t get any help from his receivers. Stroud is putting the ball where he should and the Texans are a Top 10 passing team. But shaky offensive line play, inconsistent effort from the receivers, and no running game are all conspiring against this Texans offense. Houston has covered four of its last six meetings with Dallas and are 4-1 ATS at home against the Cowboys.
19. Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) — This is a terrible spot for the Chargers. Los Angeles was a big “wise guy” play last week and somehow failed to cover at Buffalo despite benefitting from five turnovers and a fourth quarter lead. Now this shaky Chargers offense is squaring off with a pissed off Seattle defense that is coming off a loss. This could get ugly.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) — I’m not buying into an Aaron Rodgers resurgence just because Pittsburgh’s offense had a big day against an erratic Bengals defense. The Steelers are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games in Cleveland.
21. Indianapolis Colts (1-2) — I’m happy that Daniel Jones is having a career resurgence under Shane Steichen in Indianapolis. But Jones still makes some ridiculous decisions (like his third quarter interception) and hangs his receivers out to dry with way too many hospital balls. Indianapolis is headed to Europe for the third time in four seasons this week and they are sticking with the same travel plans (Thursday flight) that has worked the last two trips. They are 2-0 overseas under Steichen.
22. New York Giants (2-1) — It is impossible to view New York’s trade for J.J. McCarthy as anything other than an emphatic rejection of Jameis Winston as a long-term option under center. I said it last week: how the hell could the Giants think that Winston was an appropriate backup plan for injury-prone Jaxson Dart? New York is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of less than a field goal.
23. Green Bay Packers (1-2) — Green Bay is 0-3 ATS this season and now 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight games. Things are looking as bleak as I can remember in Lambeau. People are dragging Matt LaFluer but I just don’t think this is a very good roster.
24. Carolina Panthers (1-2) — Bryce Young sucks. I know he’s made progress – you know, away from being a complete and total bust – but there is no way in hell the Panthers should re-sign him to a market-rate deal at the end of this season. Young looked absolutely lost against the Browns and the Panthers are now just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games. Carolina is now 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss under Dave Canales.
25. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) — Arizona is now 31-18 ATS as an underdog since 2021 and is 22-9 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5 and 6.5 points since 2018. I don’t know how much I trust this team as a road favorite this week, heading west to east for the dreaded 10 a.m. PST kickoff in New York on Sunday.
26. Washington Commanders (1-2) — The Commanders did an excellent job of taking advantage of beneficial field position against the Seahawks. Washington had nearly half of their drives (six) start at their own 40-yard-line or better and turned those drives into 24 of their 33 points, with two touchdowns on drives that started in Seattle territory. Mix in a pick-six and the Commanders were extremely opportunistic in their upset win.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) — Baker Mayfield was a goddamn hero last week. I’m serious when I say that I don’t think that three guys had better games than Mayfield last week. He was under duress for the entire game against that Vikings defense, but Mayfield was constantly creating something out of nothing and singlehandedly kept the Bucs in that game. Tampa Bay is now 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games and will be without Mayfield for three games. I am a big Jalon Daniels fan, though, and I think the kid may have something.
28. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) — Atlanta is 0-10 ATS since 2020 when coming off a double-digit victory. The underdog has covered each of the last four Falcons-Saints meetings and Atlanta has won three of the last four in this series, including a sweep last year. The Falcons have been awesome on Monday Night Football, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10, including home upsets over the Bills and Rams last year.
29. Cleveland Browns (2-1) — What a garbage win by the Browns. This team sucks and Deshaun Watson is awful. He deserves zero credit for Cleveland’s early season “success”. Watson was missing simple throws and making terrible decisions throughout that sloppy 21-18 win over Carolina. The Browns were bailed out by Carolina’s stupidity more than anything Cleveland brought to the table in that game. The Browns are 4-2 ATS at home against the Steelers.
30. New York Jets (1-2) — The Jets are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. They are catching the Bears in a letdown spot after their Monday Night Football upset over the Eagles. The Jets offense has been vastly improved this season, averaging 21.3 points per game this year after managing just 13.1 points per game over their final eight games of 2025.
31. Tennessee Titans (0-3) — The worst part about Cam Ward’s game-ending interception wasn’t the fact that he just completely ignored the defender right in front of his face. The worst part is that even if Jevon Holland wasn’t there for the INT the guy Ward was targeting, Elic Ayomanor, wasn’t even close to being open behind Holland.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-3) — Miami is 0-3 ATS this season and has lost its three games by an average of 17 points per game. This is their third road game in four weeks and will be their third straight game as a double-digit underdog. DeVon Achane is out for the year and if anything happens to Malik Willis – who has been terrible but is still better than the alternatives – then 0-17 may be on the table for this group.
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