2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 6
If you gave me a paint brush I’ll create a terrible painting.
Truly, I can’t draw or paint even a little bit. That doesn’t mean there is something wrong with paint brushes as a tool. It just means I don’t know how to use it.
It’s the same thing with analytics in sports. Statistical analytics has been revolutionary in the 21st century across all corners of society. Their usage in sports is a very public application of high-minded behind-the-scenes work.
But analytics are just a tool. And if you put them in the wrong hands, you’re going to get an ugly picture.
That is the case weekly in the NFL with head coaches and their jaw-dropping stupidity regarding game and clock management. Week 5’s results – from Todd Bowles to Dan Quinn – showed once again that just because we now have statistical tools to help make better decisions, better decisions aren’t always the result.
Here is one of the problems with the public’s understanding of analytics: these percentages and numbers are often compiled through tens of thousands of simulations. But these games aren’t simulations. They are singular situations with high variance.
Down two points with six minutes left in the game and with two timeouts, should you go for it on 4th-and-3 from the opponents’ 47-yard line?
Well, I bet the analytics are going to say, “Yes”. They always seem to say that you should go for it. But those math models aren’t accounting for variable change. What if you’re facing a Top 5 defense? What if your left tackle is hurt? What if the opposing team’s top running back and receiver are out of the game? What if you have a Pro Bowl punter and great special teams? What if you’re facing a rookie head coach or first-time offensive coordinator? What about the weather? Are you at home or on the road?
Generic “analytics” don’t – and can’t – account for all the relevant variables. So, when you see the graphic flash on the broadcast saying that the numbers suggest to “Go For It”, that is completely misleading.
Look, some of these coaches have brilliant minds for schemes and systems. They understand football, in all its complexity, in a way I never will. Todd Bowles and Dan Quinn have forgotten more about football than I will ever know in eight lifetimes. But just because they can design complicated defensive game plans doesn’t mean they are competent at making game strategy decisions. I’m better at that then they are. And I know that, because I have an entire body of work from those men botching situations like they did last week.
So don’t let some losing head coach or internet troll throw out that “the analytics said to do (whatever dumbass thing)”. Analytics are just a tool. And in the hands of incompetent or incapable people, that tool is pretty much worthless.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here are my Week 6 NFL Power Rankings:
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-0) — San Francisco is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Historically, the 49ers are 32-16 straight up at home on Monday Night Football. Kyle Shanahan has not been good on MNF, though. He is just 7-7 SU on Mondays, including 5-5 at home, and the Niners are 3-6 SU on Monday against NFC opponents.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) — Andy Reid is 22-5 straight up coming off out a bye week, including going 9-4 with the Chiefs. Including the playoffs, Reid’s teams are 28-3 out of a bye week when they face an opponent that wasn’t also on the bye. Reid is 17-10 against the spread out of a bye in the regular season.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-1) — “You are what your record says you are.” Kind of. The Bills are two dropped interceptions at Houston and a blocked field goal at Los Angeles away from being 2-3. They are 4-1. Buffalo will be staying on the West Coast to train this week before playing in Las Vegas on Sunday.
4. Seattle Seahawks (3-2) — Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with winning home records. They are 5-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-0 ATS as a road favorite. Tricky spot for Seattle, though, on a short week, at altitude, off a very physical and emotional game against the 49ers.
5. Los Angeles Rams (2-3) — Three things made the difference in that Monday night game against Buffalo. First, special teams, obviously. Second, the Rams had no answer for Josh Allen’s scrambling; if they wrap him up for one or two of those sacks it is a different game. Third, Matt Stafford missed five or six throws. He missed three touchdown throws, including what would have been a walk-off to Kyren Wiliams in overtime. The reigning MVP has to sharpen it up a bit.
6. Minnesota Vikings (5-0) — The Vikings defense is allowing opponents to convert just 22.2 percent of their third downs and just 25 percent of their red zone opportunities. Both of those numbers are insane. Also, just imagine this offense if they can ever get Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson on the field together at the same time.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) — Apparently long snapper is the hardest position in sports – not quarterback. It is unreal to me that a team’s center can’t fill in at long snapper. I mean, how hard is that? Liam Coen eschewed two field goal attempts from inside the 10-yard-line because he was worried about the long snapper. And how does that kicker miss that extra point that badly, just because of a high snap (that he probably should’ve anticipated)? Seriously, that game on Sunday never should’ve been close. The Jaguars are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 London games.
8. Denver Broncos (3-2) — Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with winning road records and they are 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. The Broncos have covered five straight as an underdog. Denver banged heads with San Francisco just two weeks ago, so nothing about the size, speed or physicality of the Seahawks should rattle the Broncos at home.
9. Baltimore Ravens (4-1) — Jesse Minter hasn’t exactly paid dividends yet on the defensive side for the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed 23 or more points in four of its five games. Baltimore is No. 14 or worse in total defense, passing defense, points allowed and takeaways. If this team is going to be a real contender in the AFC they must get better on that side of the ball.
10. New England Patriots (3-2) — New England is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last nine AFC East games. New England is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games against opponents with losing road records and seven of the last 10 games in the Jets-Patriots series have been decided by a touchdown or more.
11. Chicago Bears (3-2) — When Caleb Williams went down against Minnesota, if you had told any Bears fan that Chicago would go 2-1 without Caleb and he would be back in a month, I think 99.9 percent of those fans would take the deal. So, Chicago can’t be rattled after getting bum-rushed at Lambeau. Tyson Bagent simply is not an NFL-caliber quarterback and never should’ve been starting over Case Keenum. Green Bay also gave the NFL a blueprint for how to attack Chicago’s below-average secondary.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) — Credit to the Bengals. They could’ve very easily Bengal’d up that game in Miami. But they took control early, never trailed, and had the Dolphins at arm’s length for the last three quarters. Cincinnati is on a bye this week.
13. Detroit Lions (3-2) — The Lions are allowing opponents to convert 51 percent of their third downs (third worst) and 81 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns (third worst). Nice win in Arizona. But that one game didn’t fix their problems.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) — OK, so I want to pile on the Eagles like everyone else. However, the last two weeks they lost to the Rams and Jaguars – two of the best teams in the league – and they probably should’ve won both of those games. They had over a 90 percent win expectancy in both of those games despite a roster that has been strafed by injuries. The last two weeks, teams coming back from overseas games and playing without a bye have gone 1-3 ATS.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) — I hate this team so much. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tampa Bay and the Steelers have covered each of their last four games played in Tampa Bay.
16. Carolina Panthers (2-2) — I don’t know what to do with these idiots. They looked like world-beaters against Atlanta and Detroit, winning by a combined 66-29. They looked like trash against the Bears and Browns, losing by a combined 80-55. The road team and the underdog are both 4-0 ATS in the Eagles series.
17. Atlanta Falcons (2-3) — “Win on Monday, lose on Sunday.” I really want to take my son to the Bears-Falcons game here in Atlanta this Sunday; his first NFL game and first chance to see Caleb Williams (maybe) live. For me, a game isn’t worth going to if you’re in the nosebleeds. For two lower-level end zone seats, all-in, I’m probably going to be looking at around $900. I just don’t think I can justify spending a grand to watch a sport that is a way better product on my couch than it is in the stadium.
18. Dallas Cowboys (2-3) — The Cowboys hired Mike Pettine to assist incompetent Christian Parker with the Cowboys defense. Good. It is a start. Although Pettine hasn’t been a defensive coordinator since 2020. This roster has the talent to be competing for the NFC title. But their coaching staff is among the worst in football, college or pro, and you just can’t compensate for that.
19. Green Bay Packers (3-2) — The Packers have faced backup quarterbacks – Tyson Bagent, rookie Jalen Daniels, and Carson Wentz – in three of their five games this year. The other two quarterbacks were Michael Penix (first start of the season) and Geno Smith (lol). The favorite in the Cowboys-Packers is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings.
20. Houston Texans (1-4) — Houston is at a situational disadvantage this week. They had to play on the road at Tennessee and then fly to London for this week’s game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville was in London last week and does not have to travel. The Texans are 3-1 SU in their last four against the Jaguars. But it took a miracle comeback (down 29-10 in the fourth quarter) to avoid getting swept by Jacksonville last year and the last five meetings have been decided by one score.
21. Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) — It is not that surprising that the Raiders got wrecked in Foxboro one week after their near-miss against the Chiefs. Now Klint Kubiak’s attack will face perhaps the weakest defense Las Vegas has seen yet this season. The total in the Bills-Raiders game is 53.5, but I don’t know if that’s going to be enough.
22. Indianapolis Colts (2-3) — The situation with owner and CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon is getting weird. She is on the sideline during games. She is on the head sets during games, taking notes. She is in the locker room after losses. You can already sense the frustration and tension from this team, with Shane Steichen and his staff hanging by a thread. I don’t know what her deal is but it feels like doing more harm than good.
23. New York Giants (3-1-1) — No, this team is not for real. They should’ve lost to the Titans (interception in the end zone to end the game), should’ve lost to the Cardinals (96-yard pick six to end the game), and should’ve lost to the Commanders. The Giants get credit for being entertaining. But they are not a good football team.
24. New Orleans Saints (1-4) — New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. These underdog trends apply only at books listing the Saints as the underdog; the Giants–Saints favorite has fluctuated.
25. Washington Commanders (1-3-1) — I just don’t know how you bounce back from that? A few years ago, the Bears lost at Washington a Hail Mary because of Tyrique Stevenson. They never recovered. They went on the road the week after that loss and got bombed by 20 at Arizona. Matt Eberflus made it about another month before he was fired after another late-game gaffe. I’m projecting a similar path for Dan Quinn. Also, Jayden Daniels deserves to get dragged for that tie as well and that guy is having a brutal season this year on and off the field.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) — Tampa Bay ended a 13-game ATS losing streak emphatically, winning outright as a 9.5-point dog last Thursday at Dallas. Bowles decision not to take the three points with eight minutes to play – which would’ve put the Bucs up 17 and essentially guaranteed victory – was as egregious of an error as you will ever see.
27. Arizona Cardinals (1-4) — The Cardinals have allowed an average of 37 points per game over their last four games, going ‘over’ in three straight. They have been torched for 30+ points in nine of their last 13 games (9-4 against the total).
28. Los Angeles Chargers (0-5) — Why in god’s name did Jim Harbaugh go for it on 4th-and-1 from his own 41-yard line with 10:33 left in the fourth quarter? L.A.’s defense had allowed 10 points at that moment in the game! The Chargers got stuffed, Denver scored the tying touchdown five plays later, Herbert fumbled on the next drive, and the game was essentially over. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played at Kansas City.
29. Cleveland Browns (3-2) — The Browns have covered four consecutive games against AFC North opponents and four consecutive home games. The home team has also covered each of the last four Baltimore–Cleveland meetings.
30. New York Jets (2-3) — The Browns-Jets game delivered in every way possible. There’s just nothing better than watching two of the worst franchises in professional sports duel. The 7-6 score heading into the fourth quarter was gold. Turnovers. Missed extra points. And New York’s fluke win came the only way it possibly could’ve, the direct result of an errant punt snap after Cleveland had the game in hand. Chef’s kisses all around.
31. Tennessee Titans (0-5) — Wait, so Brian Daboll ISN’T an offensive genius? Really? Daboll is a pud that should be a receivers coach in the MAC. Tennessee has scored 10 points or fewer in three of five games and they are averaging 9.7 points per game. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after scoring fewer than 15 points.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-5) — Miami is on a bye this week. They now have two weeks to prepare for a road trip to the Jets, a game that I expect to be Miami’s first win of the season.
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