2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 5
The NFL season is a six-month death march.
Attrition is inevitable. We love this game because of the violence – not despite it. That means the tears can’t start bubbling up every time your favorite player or a guy you built your Sunday parlay around goes down to a gruesome injury.
We want to believe that in football the best teams win. That it is the ultimate meritocracy. That “you are what your record says you are”. But that’s not necessarily the case. More times than not, a bet, or even a season, simply comes down to which guy’s knee bends the wrong way, which offensive line loses three starters, or which contender gets to spend November beating backup quarterbacks.
This is also why great coaching is the ultimate x-factor in the NFL. Because the top-tier minds can adjust on the fly and scheme to their team’s strengths when stud players hit the blue tent.
The public still bets names, records and whatever garbage narrative ESPN spent four days pounding into their skulls. Meanwhile, the actual difference between two teams is how the coaches and coordinators handle their teams around the margin. How they scouted this preseason. How they built their rosters. And how they can mask the deficiencies of a secondary featuring a fourth-string cornerback and a rookie safety.
So as much as this game is about raw strength, violence and power, the level of intelligence and leadership that teams have at the top should be the first thing that you factor in before placing a dime on an NFL matchup.
Injuries aren’t an excuse. That’s football.
That goes both ways. The sportsbooks have the onus of trying to properly price chaos. They can’t do it. That’s why there is money to be made on this glorious, bloody mess. And that’s what keeps us coming back for more.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here are my Week 5 NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) — That felt like an escape. However, the Chiefs were walking into a trap last week and they fought their way through it. Keneth Walker has clearly been the best non-quarterback in the NFL through four games and he may have to do even more with receiver injuries cropping up.
2. San Francisco 49ers (4-0) — The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven 49ers-Seahawks meetings and San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
3. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) — That level of sloppiness is unsustainable from Seattle. I don’t care how much talent they have. NO one is going to consistently overcome 14 penalties for 150 yards. Seven of the penalties were 15-yard fouls and four of those came on Chargers scoring drives. Amazingly, those 14 penalties were two fewer than the Chargers (16 for 130). Seattle is 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games.
4. Buffalo Bills (3-1) — Bills fans can’t have it both ways. Josh Allen is a singular talent. But he has always been a turnover waiting to happen and he deserves criticism for it. At some point he has to grow up and take care of the ball. Allen has three interceptions and a lost fumble over the last two games. According to The Associated Press, the Bills are 42-7 when Allen doesn't turn the ball over and 49-33 when he does.
5. Los Angeles Rams (2-2) — Two things can be true. The Rams are not nearly as good as everyone was expecting them to be coming into this season. And they are still pretty damn good. Los Angeles has not been good on Monday Night Football. They beat the Giants in Week 2 on MNF, but they were 0-5 ATS and 1-6 ATS in their previous Monday games.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) — Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. This week’s game against the Eagles featured the biggest overnight move from Sunday to Monday, with Jacksonville going from -3.5 to -6.5. This game is in London on Sunday and the Jags got wrecked 35-7 last season (by the Rams). Jacksonville is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games in London.
7. Chicago Bears (3-1) — That was utter domination. The Bears are physically imposing their will on people with the league’s No. 1 rushing game and No. 1 time of possession advantage. The defense has also allowed just 28 points in its last three games, which is amazing. Chicago does have flaws, though. Their No. 30 red zone defense went 2-for-7 again last week and the Bears are leaving too many points on the field.
8. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) — There is no denying that Minnesota is the first team in over 100 years to start 4-0 without scoring a touchdown in two of the games. But there are a lot of mitigating factors. The weather in Chicago. Justin Jefferson’s injury. Kyler Murray’s injury. Facing very good defenses. But if you watched Minnesota’s last two drives – a 15-play effort and an 11-play drive – you would’ve seen Murray make several high-level throws that Carson Wentz could never make. Minnesota is on a 7-2 ATS run.
9. Denver Broncos (2-2) — Denver’s offense has been among the bottom teams in football in terms of three-and-out drives each of the past two seasons. I’m not really sure why people are shocked that they are erratic on that side of the ball this year as well. I’m not ready to bail on this team. They lost road games against the 49ers and the Chiefs, the two best teams in football, and they beat the Rams and Jaguars – also near the top of my rankings. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five Broncos-Chargers games.
10. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) — The Ravens are 5-10 straight up in their last 15 games without Lamar Jackson and he has missed those 15 games over the last five seasons. The Ravens have lost their last three Sunday Night Football games outright, including their last two Sunday night road games.
11. New England Patriots (2-2) — Drake Maye has four touchdown passes and seven interceptions through Week 4, with two more lost fumbles bringing his turnover count to nine. Maye’s passer rating of 71.0 ranks 27th of 29 qualified quarterbacks. The Patriots are playing with revenge after a home loss tin Week 1 of last season. They also have a situational advantage, catching the Raiders in a letdown spot after their loss to the Chiefs and getting them in the Eastern Time Zone for a 10 a.m. PST kickoff.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) — Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with losing home records. The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing more than 350 yards. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six Bengals-Dolphins meetings but the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
13. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) — That is now 15-3 against the total in their last 18 games. That is an unreal number for such a public team. Look, Dallas can add as much defensive talent as they want. But – as I have said here repeatedly – 34-year-old defensive coordinator Christian Parker has absolutely no idea what he’s doing. The Cowboys are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
14. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) — An impressive loss is still a loss. Now the Raiders need to scrape themselves off the mat, travel across the country, and take on a Patriots defense that is among the best in football. Las Vegas has beaten the number in five straight games and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) — This is completely falling apart. The brain drain on Philadelphia’s sideline has caught up with them and they no longer have the talent to overcome it. Nick Sirianni is clueless regarding game management and as injuries, retirement and free agency have worn down the roster, this team simply isn’t on the same level we’ve seen the past five years. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS as an underdog.
16. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) — Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog but the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven Steelers-Colts meetings. The Colts have the situational disadvantage of playing a second straight road game here, coming back from London and playing without a bye week.
17. Detroit Lions (2-2) — Jesus, these guys really can’t stop anyone. The Lions are dead last in points allowed, total defense, passing defense, explosive play rate, defensive success rate, third down defense and touchdown rate allowed. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and aren’t going to beat any real teams when they can’t get any stops.
18. Carolina Panthers (2-2) — That right there is why I’ve been hammering Tetairoa McMillan in daily props this year. This guy is awesome and he proved it again on Sunday. Unfortunately, I think that is going to crush his value in the prop market for most of the rest of the season. The Panthers are now just 4-7 SU in their last 11 games but 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games after a loss.
19. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) — “Win on Monday, lose on Sunday.” I still hold that maxim to be true, although the Bears were able to avoid that situation last week (albeit against the joke Jets). Between Atlanta’s second dominant primetime effort in two weeks and Lamar Jackson’s injury, the Falcons spread against the Ravens swung five full points from Monday to Tuesday.
20. New York Giants (3-1) — After two decades of dominating Washington, the Giants have really struggled with their NFC East rivals in recent seasons. The Giants have been swept by Washington each of the last two years and are just 3-6-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
21. New Orleans Saints (1-3) — It is going to be tough for the Saints to get up off the mat after that Monday Night Football knockout. The Saints always have a strong home field advantage and a great home crowd. But there is just no way they will have the same emotion in that stadium Sunday afternoon against the Vikings that they had against the Falcons on MNF.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) — I can’t say enough bad things about how this team played last Thursday. They came out on their first drive, got the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hand quickly, and marched down the field. Then once they got off script it was nothing but five- and seven-step drops and disaster. The more Rodgers is involved in the game plan, at this point, the worse things are going to go for the Steelers. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
23. Houston Texans (0-4) — As I pointed out last week, C.J. Stroud has been dealing this year. He racked up 347 passing yards and two more touchdowns last week, with no turnovers. Whatever issues Houston has right now, Stroud isn’t one of them.
24. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) — I have nothing to add. It’s just as ugly as it looks.
25. Green Bay Packers (2-2) — This is a big-time revenge game for the Packers after Chicago’s comeback win in the playoffs last year. This feels like a rivalry series that is shifting in a big way. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams and Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven NFC North games.
26. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) — Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Arizona cannot stop ANYONE. The Cardinals have allowed 27 or more points in 12 of their last 16 games dating back to last season and 30+ in 10 of those games. Arizona has gone ‘over’ in 11 of 17 games and 31-18 ATS in their last 49 games as an underdog.
27. Washington Commanders (1-3) — The Commanders better hope that Jayden Daniels can start – and finish – this week’s game against the Giants because Athan Kaliakmanis isn’t even close to ready to play. He was bad in college and is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. Washington is playing one week after a trip to London, without a bye, and I don’t think they deserve to be favored this week.
28. Cleveland Browns (3-1) — I’m going to be stubborn about this because this team is not nearly as good as its record. This is still a six- or maybe seven-win team at best, so don’t get sucked into the hype around this team. The best thing for their value would be for them to beat the Jets, go to 4-1, and watch as the rug gets pulled out from under them.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) — Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS this season and has failed to cover 13 straight dating to last season. The Buccaneers have covered only four of their last 20 games overall and are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games. Losing Antoine Winfield is a big blow to a defense that has played as well as anyone.
30. New York Jets (1-3) — The Jets have provided the NFL with some of the worst head coaches in league history. It is pretty clear Aaron Glenn is heading toward that territory. How can a ‘defensive guy’ field a stop unit that is as inept as what the Jets are packing? And now without any of the modest offensive weapons supporting from that side of the ball, the defense will be exposed even more.
31. Tennessee Titans (0-4) — Tennessee is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 divisional games. They are just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Texans. It should be noted that only one of Tennessee’s four losses this year have come by more than six points this season.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) — This team is not going to go 0-17. I’ve watched them closely every week because I have money on their season win total ‘under’. They are showing improvement and they are physical along both offensive lines. They gave the Chiefs and Vikings everything they could handle the last two weeks and will pick up their first win(s) over the next two or three weeks.
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