2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 2
Welcome to Overreaction Week!
The week leading up to Week 2 of the NFL season is one of the most hilarious of the year. The entire football-obsessed nation just had a seven-month dry spell snapped with a glorious week-long NFL orgy. So now half a year’s worth of analysis is instantly thrown out the window because of 60 minutes of football.
“The Chicago Bears offense is the greatest of all time!”
Teams we loved two weeks ago are suddenly frauds. Teams we hated are now Super Bowl contenders. Quarterbacks should be benched, coaches should be fired and entire franchises should be buried – all based the smallest of possible sample size.
“The Giants are winning the NFC!”
This is what makes Week 2 one of my favorite weeks of the NFL betting season.
The public doesn’t react to Week 1. It overreacts.
The Bengals defense is better than the Texans defense!
One game represents less than six percent of an NFL regular season. Yet the betting market is now flooded with people absolutely certain that everything they believed in August was wrong because of what they watched Sunday.
Some of it was.
Most of it probably wasn’t.
“Jesse Minter was the REAL brains behind the Chargers!”
The trick this week is separating information from noise. We need to determine which Week 1 performances revealed something real and which were simply the random violence and statistical chaos inherent in pro football.
Everybody thinks they learned something last weekend. And maybe they did.
But Overreaction Week isn’t about figuring out what happened.
It’s about figuring out who is overreacting to it - and making that information pay.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here are my Week 2 NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (1-0) – It is going to be lit in Orchard Park on Thursday as the Bills open their new stadium. Night games in Buffalo are always insane and I’m looking forward to reading the Erie County police blotter on Friday. Buffalo is 1-4 against the spread in their last five Thursday games, including a 0-2 ATS mark last year.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) – That was a dominating defensive effort by the Chiefs at Week 1. What stood out to me was how much and how well they communicated on defense before the snap. Seemingly before every play there were two or three Chiefs defenders signaling or yelling to one another. The Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Colts last year, 23-20, despite a 494-255 yardage advantage. The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in the last three meetings and 2-6 ATS in the last eight.
3. Los Angeles Rams (0-1) – The Rams will have dodged a major bullet if Myles Garrett is able to return to the team and contribute this season. They don’t need him in September. They need him in January. The Rams, including their time in St. Louis, are just 13-18 ATS in their 31 games as a Monday Night Football home favorite.
4. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) – Jesse Minter’s win and easy cover against the Colts snapped a five-game ATS losing streak for NFL rookie head coaches that were favored on the road in their first game. Lamar Jackson is 25-3 SU in his last 28 games against NFC opponents.
5. Seattle Seahawks (1-0) – Drew Lock looked shaky as hell for the Seahawks. I am also curious to see how rookie offensive coordinator Brian Fluery adjusts to an offense that features Lock instead of Sam Darnold over the next month. Were it not for Drake Maye’s meltdown and a fourth down effort from Jaxon Smith-Njigba the Seahawks would be 0-1. Seattle hasn’t lost to Arizona since November 2021, going 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in those games
6. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) – Look, if the 49ers don’t stuff the Rams at the one-yard line to end the third quarter then it is a 17-14 game with 15 minutes to play. San Francisco deserves all the credit for being the better team. But that game was closer than the final score suggests. The Niners are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) – Cincinnati rushed from under center 17 times for 78 yards on Sunday. Not great, but effective. And the Bengals were able to ice their lead in the fourth quarter. A lead they built, by the way, while getting next to nothing from Ja’Marr Chase (who faced constant double teams). Joe Burrow is now just 5-8 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 for his career. The underdog is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Cincy and Houston.
8. Denver Broncos (0-1) – Terrible third down execution and horrendous tackling did in Denver on Monday. They were 0-for-9 on their last nine third downs – with six of them third downs of six yards or less. After gaining 68 yards on seven plays in their second drive, the Broncos managed just 108 total yards on 37 plays.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) – The Eagles are now 7-3 ATS in their first three games of the season since the start of the 2023 and Nick Siriani 6-0 has now won six straight season-opening games. The Eagles picked up 63 yards on a Dontayvion Wicks reception and 43 on a Dallas Goedert touchdown catch. Other than that, they generated 76 passing yards on 26 drop backs.
10. Houston Texans (0-1) – Kwame Lassiter is getting dragged for dropping that can-of-corn interception late in Sunday’s loss. That was actually the fourth opportunity that the Texans had for a potential game-sealing turnover that Houston let slip through its fingers. Josh Allen fumbled at his own 18 and threw a tipped pass that should’ve been picked both on the drive prior. And James Cook fumbled inside his own 20 on the first play of the eventual game-winning drive. Any one of those plays go the other way and Houston is 1-0.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) – The Jaguars went to Denver and beat the Broncos handily last December, 34-20. Now they get the Broncos on a short week after an embarrassing loss. Jacksonville also won at San Francisco (26-21) as a road underdog last year and should’ve beaten Houston, blowing a 29-10 fourth quarter lead. The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, with that Texans defeat the only loss.
12. Chicago Bears (1-0) – Wow. Just – wow. There are a lot of wild things about Chicago hanging 59 points on Carolina in Week 1. The first is that the Bears played pretty sloppy in the first half. They had a turnover in their own territory. They got stopped on an idiotic fourth down in their own territory. And they had several silly penalties. The second wild thing is that all 59 points came from offense. Usually there are fluky special teams or defensive scores littered into a 50+-point outburst.
13. New England Patriots (0-1) – Maye deserves to be dragged for his horrific fourth quarter to blow New England’s opener at Seattle. But why was Josh McDaniels throwing so much in the fourth quarter to begin with when it was so obvious that Drew Lock was not going to beat them? The Patriots have revenge for a loss to the Steelers last year in Foxboro. New England is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Pittsburgh.
14. Detroit Lions (1-0) – After a book-breaking run to start his NFL head coaching career, Dan Campbell is now just 2-7 ATS in his last nine games as a head coach. Detroit went just 2-4 ATS as an underdog last season. (One of the wins was a 38-30 beat down at Baltimore.) They are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in the underdog role.
15. Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) – Maybe Mike McDaniel actually isn’t a very good offensive coach? That was an absolute mess and the Chargers must’ve knocked a lot of people out of their survivor pools. The Chargers have won four straight games against the Raiders by an aggregate score of 107-53. The favorite in this series is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
16. New York Giants (1-0) – John Harbaugh is now 14-6 ATS in season openers and this team looked vastly different than the disorganized mess we’ve seen from the G-Men for the last 10+ years. The look ahead line on their MNF game against the Rams was 9.5 before either team played. It can currently be found at 7.0 at most books.
17. Dallas Cowboys (0-1) – Dallas was yet another team with a young, inexperienced coordinator that was completely overwhelmed and exposed in their first game. Dallas DC Christian Parker is 34 years old and has never been a coordinator at any level and never held a position higher than defensive backs coach. He was in way over his head on Sunday night and we’ll see if it gets any better this week.
18. Minnesota Vikings (1-0) – Well, that didn’t last long. For three months I’ve been talking up Kyler Murray as an under-the-radar gem for intrepid bettors to back this season. It lasted all of three series. Carson Wentz was a mess and is not the answer. Minnesota’s 6.1 yards per point number was the fifth lowest of any game in the 21st century.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) – That was pretty gross. I hit a 7-Unit winner on Pittsburgh last Sunday, but I had to white knuckle it the entire way. Pittsburgh only rushed for 51 yards on 21 attempts (2.8 yards per carry) and it was brutal watching all-time scumbag Aaron Rodgers flail around for 40 pass attempts. The Steelers were epic for their success as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. They went on the road and beat the Patriots last September, winning 21-14 despite getting outgained by 169 yards.
20. Green Bay Packers (0-1) – That is now six straight losses for the Packers, their first six-game losing streak since 1990-91. They have held two-score leads in four of those six games, including a 22-10 lead on Sunday in Minnesota, and they have been outscored by 75 points in the fourth quarter during that stretch. Green Bay is also 0-9 in their last nine games without Micah Parsons.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) – I love Baker Mayfield. That guy can quarterback my team any day. But the turnovers are a massive problem. He had 37 interceptions the last three years, leading the league in 2024, and he had 32 fumbles over those three seasons, leading the league in 2024 and 2025. His three fumbles on Sunday lead to 21 Bengals points and were the difference in the game. Todd Bowles now 12-4 ATS in his last 16 games in Weeks 1 and 2.
22. Washington Commanders (0-1) – That was vintage Stefon Diggs, scoring a big-time touchdown but following it with a stupid penalty that cost his team a chance to tie the game. Washington is just 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against the rival Cowboys, with all eight losses coming by at least a touchdown.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-0) – Underdogs of 6.5 or more went 2-1 ATS in Week 1. They are now 55-31 ATS in that role since 2005 and have had a winning record in 21 of the last 22 years. I mentioned in my offseason preview of Arizona: this team has some dudes on offense. Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson and a trio of talented running backs give steady hand Jacoby Brissett a lot of options.
24. Indianapolis Colts (0-1) – Dating back to last season, Indianapolis has allowed an average of 34.0 points over their last six games. Second-year defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has led eight previous NFL defenses. Exactly two of them have finished in the Top 23 in yards allowed, exactly zero of them have finished inside the Top 15, and exactly one of them has finished in the top half of the NFL in points allowed. He is awful.
25. Carolina Panthers (0-1) – The Panthers have won three straight and five of seven over the Falcons. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS in this series and they have won outright in three of their last five games in Atlanta. Facing the Cooper Rush-led Falcons offense this week after being buzz sawed by Caleb Williams and the Bears will be a massive step down.
26. New York Jets (1-0) – According to Michael Nania, Geno Smith became just the third Jets quarterback in history to go on the road and throw for over 200 yards while completing at least 75% of his passes with no sacks and no interceptions. The Jets did have eight turnovers. But they looked efficient, taking just three negative plays on offense, missing just five tackles and not committing a turnover.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) – Let’s slow down on the Raiders. Their win over Miami was encouraging. But they only outgained the Dolphins by 31 yards on the day. Vegas has to play three of its next four on the road, at the Chargers, Saints and Patriots, with home games against the Chiefs, Bills and Rams. This team won its season opener last year also and still finished 3-14.
28. New Orleans Saints (0-1) – That is now seven straight ATS wins for Tyler Shough and New Orleans. I 100 percent support the decision to go for the win. I don’t even mind the play that they called, as Shough had three different options on the right side. It was a rare moment of defensive efficiency from the Lions in the second half.
29. Tennessee Titans (0-1) – For all the talk about the NFL’s second-highest scoring Week 1 ever, the ‘over’ only went 8-7 for the weekend, with three of the four primetime games staying below the total. Robert Saleh’s career ATS mark of 22-36 (39.3%) is the currently the worst of any of the 32 NFL head coaches.
30. Atlanta Falcons (0-1) – Bijan Robinson had 173 total yards of offense Sunday. The rest of the Falcons team combined for 65. His 29 total touches were No. 2 in the league this week, behind Jahmyr Gibbs (34). Kevin Stefanski career ATS mark of 43-58-1 (42.6 ATS) is the second worst of any current NFL head coach with at least 20 games. That includes a mark of 24-25-1 ATS at home.
31. Cleveland Browns (0-1) – There is absolutely no hope of anything good happening for this team this season. They have to travel back to Florida this week to face Baker Mayfield, who they dumped to signed historic disaster Deshaun Watson. Think Mayfield is going to be motivated? The Browns had to deal with over 100 degree “feels like” heat in Jacksonville last Sunday and it will be more of the same in Tampa this Sunday.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-1) – Miami spent their first weekend in Las Vegas. Rather than fly home to Miami, they will travel to Northern California this week to practice and prepare for Sunday’s game against San Francisco. I’m interested to see how rookie head coach Jeff Hafley and his extremely green coaching staff handle this situation with the youngest roster in the league (13 rookies).
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